groupThink

Will the Real Toronto Maple Leafs Please Stand up?

2008-03-23T16:36:00.002-04:00

Toronto's record:

1st 53 games of the season: 20-24-9 (13 games below .500)
On pace for a 69 point season
Last 23 games of the season: 15-7-1 (7 games over .500)
On pace for a 111 point season

Just wanted to point out how well the Leafs have played over a pretty decent chunk of the schedule. What could have been? So many should've, could've, would've scenarios to talk about. Over the last quarter of the season, Toronto is on pace to have the best record in the NHL.

What changed?

Toskala has started every one of those games.
Wozniewski was removed from the lineup.
The young kids were brought in and injected energy into the lineup
The NTC 5 have stepped and showed that they deserve the big contracts that they were rewarded.
Sundin has been HUGE!!! (Mr. Clutch is coming back on Tuesday!)

I think Toronto will go 6-0 from here-on out. Whether or not it's going to be enough to squeak into 8th spot, or take over that familiar and seemingly predestined 9th place spot at this time, only time will tell. This team is playing with heart and emotion, and doing everything they can to will themselves into the playoffs.

Current Pace:

Philadelphia - 75 gp, 84 pts, pace: 92 points, potential: 98 pts, 44 wins
Boston - 75 gp, 84 pts, pace: 92 points, potential: 98 pts, 44 wins
Washington - 76 gp, 82 pts, 88 pts, potential: 94 pts, 43 wins
Buffalo - 75 gp, 81 pts, 88 pts, potential: 95 pts, 42 wins
Florida - 76 gp, 81 pts, 87 pts, potential: 93 pts, 42 wins
Toronto - 76 gp, 80 pts, 86 pts, potential: 92 pts, 42 wins

IF Toronto goes 6-0 from hereon out, they will be very, very close to a playoff spot. They need 5 of the following six to happen:

Florida to 5-1 or worse
Buffalo to go 5-1-1 or worse (Leafs would win tiebreaker with more wins)
Washington to 4-1-1 or worse (Leafs/Caps are 2-2 head-to-head this season, so tiebreaker would come down to goal differential, where the Caps have a -2 to -16 advantage)
Boston to go 4-3 or worse (Considering the Leafs play Boston twice, two regulation wins are a must. Toronto would win tiebreaker on wins. It comes down to hoping the Bruins lose at least one more game in their remaining 5)
Philadelphia to 4-3 or worse (Toronto would also win tiebreaker here on wins)

It all comes down to Toronto going 6-0. I think this team will refuse to lie down and go silently into that good night. We can't count on Philly losing three of their remaining seven games, but I think the other five are definitely in the realm of high probability. It comes down to Toronto going 6-0. They've shown that they have the heart, determination and talent to get the job done. I know I've been fooled twice by late season heroics that came just a few days too late, but I refuse to not support the team in this playoff run. If they manage to get in, this team is good enough to beat anybody.

My prediction (all based on a hypothetical 6-0 run by the Leafs to end the season):

#7 Philadelphia, 93 points (4-2-1 to finish out season)
#8 Toronto, 92 points (6-0 baby)
#9 Washington, 91 points (They scare me the most - Toronto needs to rely on Carolina to take care of the Caps in 2 remaining games)
#10 Buffalo, 91 points (Loss to Leafs and one loss in the three games against the Canadiens or Sens will eliminate the Sabres)
#10 Boston, 90 points (Lose two to the Leafs and one against the Sabres)
#11 Florida, 89 points (I don't see Florida going 6-0, although they are 8-1-1 in their last 10)

A Delusional Fan Riding the Leafs Playoff Bandwagon

2008-03-08T14:03:00.002-05:00

The playoffs are still in the Leaf's own hands at this point. That loss to Jersey earlier this week really hurt their chances. They basically have 2 losses to give this season if they want any chance of getting in. Sport Club Stats gives them an 84.5% chance of getting in at 11-2. Any higher than that is essentially a lock. 11-1-1 is a 95.4%. The loss to Jersey officially eliminated the Leafs from the running for 1st overall in the Eastern conference, in case you were in any was curios.

I know we're grasping at straws at this point, but I've given up any hope at a lottery pick with the way everyone is playing now. If Toskala plays every game until they are mathematically eliminated, I think they'll go at least 8-4, which will put them solidly in the middle of the non-playoff pack.

I've witnessed the last two playoff runs, and I know what this team is capable of. Last season, they were playing well enough that they might have surprised a few teams in the playoffs, and we can only say "what if" about that poor outing vs. Wade Dubielewicz and the shootout loss by these same New Jersey Devils. A couple seasons ago, the team was almost carried into the playoffs on the back of J.S. Aubin, a career backup/minor leaguer. This season we have Mats Sundin, apparently hungrier than ever to lead Toronto to the playoffs, and Vesa Toskala, a warrior in net, trying to do everything he can to lead them.

It's unfortunate that this team seems to take 5 months to come out of hibernation each season. There are so many "what ifs" this year:

The refusal to quickly abandon the strange high-pressure forecheck early this season when it was readily apparent that it wasn't going to work this team.
Essentially every appearance Raycroft made this season, save for the shutout over Buffalo early in the season. 2 wins in 17 appearances has gone a long way to destroying any chance this team had in making the big show.
The mid-season groin injury to Toskala. He had a stretch where he was 1-5-1, including going 0-3 when he returned from the injury, which leads me to believe he was playing hurt for a few games before he went on the IR.
The injury to McCabe. We all love to rag on the guy, but the results speak for themselves. This team is a playoff hockey club, maybe not a very good one, but a playoff club none-the-less, when McCabe is in the lineup.

I'm sick of not seeing the Leafs in the playoffs since 2003. The Leafs were 1 point out of last overall a little over a month ago, and I was in full support of a fire sale, tanking, and the christening of Steven Stamkos the new savior of the organization. The NTC essentially destroyed that dream, but now they are responding to the critics in a big way, and as Leafs fan, I'm going to support them all the way, and hang on to those last few straws dangling off the edge of the playoff bandwagon and hope that we all somehow manage to hang on.

GO LEAFS GO! :yo:

Life Imitates Art

2007-05-24T12:19:00.000-04:00

Man with 700 snakes arrested at airport. Samuel L. Jackson was unavailable for comment.

Selanne's Ketchup Flows Once Again

2007-05-20T21:03:00.000-04:00

After finishing the season 3rd overall with 48 goals, and 11th overall with 94 points, Teemu Selanne picked a inopportune moment to fall into a scoring slump. Prior to Thursday's game #4, Selanne had just 6 points in the first 12 games of the playoffs. Things have changed quickly, as Teeemu has 5 points in the past two games, including the Game five OT winner. The 5 points in two games gives him 11 points in 15 games, which is still well off what we have come to expect from the Finnish Flash, but it is good enough to be tied with Ryan Getzlaf for 12th overall in league playoff scoring.

If the Ducks want to win the Stanley Cup, Selanne is going to have to continue to play a bigger role, as he has during the past two games. It's not as if he wasn't playing well earlier in the playoffs. I actually think Selanne's best playoff performances so far have come during the Vancouver series - games where he was held off the scoresheet but was all over the ice. Prior to finally scoring in Game #4, Selanne was getting his opportunities, but perhaps just rushing his shot a little bi - squeezing his stick to hard as they say.

A quote from Selanne during the 2006 playoffs:

"You know how you can't get the ketchup out of the bottle and you keep beating on it and beating on it, and nothing comes out," he told the Orange County Register. "Then, all of a sudden, here it comes — splat!

"That's how it is with goal scorers. You have to be patient. As long as you keep getting your chances, you feel it's going to happen. "

Anaheim is now up 3-2, with a chance to close out the series on home ice in game #6. Living in the greater Detroit area, I would get the occasional odd glance cheering the Toronto Maple Leafs on during the regular season. The Anaheim Ducks are my second team. Cheering for Selanne and the Ducks has made the playoffs a lot less painful these past two seasons, as Toronto fell just short for the second year in a row.

I plan to go out Tuesday and cheer the Ducks on - I'll have a burger and fries, with a healthy dose of ketchup. I just hope they don't kick me out for making some noise after Selanne breaks the hearts of the Wings faithful.

Mark's Clip of the Day (05-19-2007)

2007-05-19T11:12:00.000-04:00

Who can ever forget that ridiculous brawl between Happy Gilmore and Bob Barker? Adam Sandler pays a surprise visit to the Price is Right as Bob reminisces on the movie scene from ten years ago.

Click Here...

Bowl Predictions

2006-12-03T21:49:00.000-05:00

Jan. 8	Title	Ohio State 55 Florida 12
Jan. 3	Sugar	LSU 36 Notre Dame 31
Jan. 2	Orange	Louisville 35 Wake Forest 21
Jan. 1	Fiesta	Boise State 38 Oklahoma 24
Jan. 1	Rose	Michigan 45 USC 21
Jan. 1	Capital One	Wisconsin 35 Arkansas 9
Jan. 1	Gator	West Virginia 31 Georgia Tech 14
Jan. 1	Outback	Penn State 28 Tennessee 21
Jan. 1	Cotton	Nebraska 21 Auburn 17
Jan. 6	International	Western Michigan 28 Cincinnati 24
Dec. 31	MPC Computers	Miami 28 - Nevada 17
Dec. 30	Chick-fil-A	Virginia Tech 31 - Georgia 7
Dec. 30	Alamo	Iowa 31 - Texas 28
Dec. 29	Champs Sports	Purdue 41 - Maryland 38
Dec. 29	Insight	Minnesota 28 - Texas Tech 21
Dec. 28	Holiday	Texas A&M 38 - Cal 21
Dec. 26	Motor City	Central Michigan 28 - Middle Tennessee St.* 17
Dec. 24	Hawaii	Hawaii 41 - Arizona State 21

Big Ten will Dominate in BCS - SEC is Overated

2006-12-03T21:04:00.000-05:00

On the positive side of today's (outrageous/unfathomable/unconstitutional/absurd/explicative deleted) outcome, splitting up Michigan and OSU into separate bowl matchups gives the Big Ten a chance to showcase themselves as the strongest conference in the nation, finally putting to rest the mythical notion that the SEC is in some way superior in every way.

National Championship #1 Ohio State vs #2 Florida. OSU is going to completely obliterate #2 Florida. This is going to be a joke. Final Score: OSU 55 - Florida 12

Rose Bowl - #3 Michigan vs. #5 USC - Michigan will destroy #5 USC. USC has been the most consistanly overrated school all season long. UCLA shut USC down defensively, and Michigan has the #1 defense in the nation. Mario Manningham, Prescott Burgess and Willis Berringer will all be 100% healthy. Final Score: Michigan 45 - USC 21.

Capitol One Bowl- #7 Wisconsin vs #12 Arkansas. Wisconsin has done everything they can to demonstrate that they are one of the best schools in the country, but they continue to be disrespected. The Arkansas-Florida SEC championship was a joke, and the Razerbacks are way too one-dimensional. The Wisconsin defense will stop the running game of Arkansas in it's tracks. Final Score: Wisconsin 35 - Arkansas 9

Outback Bowl -#28 Penn State vs #17 Tennessee. Penn State has been disrespected all season long, although they have a very strong defense, and great tailback in Tony Hunt. Penn State's 8-4 record looks somewhat mediocre, but those 4 losses came against teams (Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Notre Dame) that have a combined record of 45 - 4. Someone had to lose those games, and PSU was just a notch below the top level talent in the Big Ten. Tennessee's #17 ranking is undeserved, and is just a byproduct of the media's continual fascination with overrating all things SEC. Final Score: Penn State 28 - Tennessee 21.

Alamo Bowl - #19 Texas vs (One Time #13) Iowa - A matchup of two of the most overrated programs in the nation. Colt McCoy should have time to heal up, so this game should be interesting. Iowa did little to impress in their final six weeks of the season, with their lone win against Northern Illinois. I have a hard time believing Iowa will be competitive in this matchup, although perhaps Drew Tate can pull one last masterpiece out of his repository to impress NFL scouts enough for a decent draft selection. Although I don't really have any confidence in it, I'm going to predict a Final Score of Iowa 31 - Texas 28.

Insight Bowl - Minnesota vs Texas Tech - This is where I start to wonder why they hold so many bowl games. Minnesota managed to win 4 of their last 5 games to pull back to .500 and secure a bowl matchup. They were robbed of a win against Penn State on a bad pass interference call in OT, and I really didn't see much of them outside of decently impressive performance at the Metrodome against Michigan. Amer Pinnix was the only man to rush for 100 yards against Michigan all season until the field-induced disaster against OSU. Texas Tech almost pulled off an upset vs. (overrated) Texas, but nothing else on their schedule jumps out at me as something to worry about. Final Score Minnesota 28 - Texas Tech 21

Champs Sports Bowl - Purdue vs. Maryland - Purdue launched out of the gate with a 4-0 start against teams my adult rec league could probably beat. The Boilermakers had the easiest Big Ten schedule in history, skipping both Michigan and OSU, and playing an incredibly weak out-of-conference schedule, yet all they managed to come up with was an 8-4 record. At one point in the season, they had the best offense in the country, and the worst defense in the country. The only time I heard Maryland mentioned in the news is when they were cited as the top opponent West Virginia had faced in the country before their eventual loss to Louisville - that has to count for something, I suppose. Maryland actually has a few AP and Coach's poll votes, placing them are #32 in the country, so I suppose this might be somewhat of a mismatch, as nobody in their right mind would consider Purdue to be in that league. Maryland's 4 losses came against ranked opponents (West Virginia, Boston College, Georgia Tech, and Wake Forest), and the managed to pull out a win against Clemson. I suppose I should probably respect them for that, but I watched the ACC championship, and I don't think I'll ever take anyone from that conference seriously again*. Final Score - Purdue 41 - Maryland 38

Outside of the Lousville-Rutgers, and Arkansas-LSU matchups, I have walked away unimpressed with every football game outside of the Big Ten I've watched this season. I don't really expect the Big Ten to go 6-0 in the bowl season this year, as it would take a miracle for Minnesota, Iowa, or Purdue to pull out a victory, but I do expect Michigan, Ohio State, and Wisconsin to impress the nation with convincing victories. How sweet would it be to see the Big Ten ranked #1, #2, and #3 at the end of the season. Perhaps then we can finally do away with the mythical notion that the SEC is in every way superior to everyone else, so they have no need to play anybody besides the Sun Belt in their out-of-conference schedules.

*Regarding the ACC Championship game: I was mildly curious as to what Georgia Tech and Wake Forest had to offer, since I witnessed those teams hanging around the bottom third of the BCS rankings every once in a while.

The Georgia Tech offense was supposed to be the Calvin Johnson show - supposedly, this guy is unarguably the most talented player in college football. Johnson 117 yards on 8 receptions, but he also dropped an easy pass, tipped a pass up in the air for an easy interception, and let a pass fall on the ground in front of him that I would've certainly been able to catch. The Georgia Tech offense focused entirely around Reggie Ball throwing the ball 50 yards down the field, and hoping the defense would occasionally bump into one of the Johnson twins and draw the inevitable pass interference call. Reggie Ball successfully drew 3 pass interference calls during the game, but he also went 9-for-29, and those 45 yards would've come a lot easier if they were actually trying for pass completions.

The Wake Forest offense was no better. The Demon Deacons offense consisted entirely of reverses and end-arounds, which was the offensive approach I actually recommended Michigan take vs. Northwestern earlier this year, due to the inclement weather. It was hilarious watching Wake Forest attempt an elaborate reverse that took twenty second to run, and produced 2 yards, and then turn around and reproduce the exact same play on second down for no gain, and then run the same play again on third down, resulting in a 5-yard sack.

The offense on both teams was inept, yet somebody had to win. Eventually, time expired, and Wake Forest limped off the field with a hard-fought, nausea inducing 9-6 victory.

Reggie Fish Destroys Michigan's National Title Hopes

2006-12-03T20:15:00.000-05:00

The BCS is BS, and CBS had as much to do with that as anybody. I'll never watch another college football game on that station after their blatant and biased attempt to sway BCS voters away from a rematch. Someone even had the gall to vote Florida #1 in the Harris Interactive Poll ???

As a Michigan fan, that interception by Eric McNeal had me at the highest point this season since Breaston caught that two point conversion to close the score to within 3 with a few minutes to play. All of that emotion dropped to an emotional numbness when Reggie Fish dropped that punt inside the ten yard line, giving the Gators a free touchdown, and a renewed life. I had no idea that the BCS voters would be so braindead as to swap places between Michigan and Florida after such a mediocre performance on the field -- I feel numb.

I've been calling for a playoff all season long, and after getting snubbed like this, I've never felt so adamant about it. There is really no strong argument against a playoff:

1. The players are college students first and foremost - True, but other College sports play a lot more than 13 games. Drop the twelfth game of season, start a week earlier in the summer, and your more than halfway there. Have the top eight teams play in a single elimination tournament, which amounts to a total of 7 games played, and a maximum of three playoff games. Since you've dropped one game from the regular season, and one of the bowl games, that amounts to only one extra game played for the national champion.

2. There is too much money involved in the Bowls - The quarterfinal, semifinal and final games can all be considered bowl games, and they can all keep corporate sponsorships. Teams not involved in the eight team playoff are free to continue playing in minor bowls, and teams that drop out of the championship series early can still play in consolation bowls.

3. A playoff devalues the regular season - No, it doesn't. USC lost against unranked Oregon State, and yet they were still in the running for the national championship until they blew it in the final week of the season, against UCLA. Florida lost to Auburn, yet somehow made it into the national championship game, ahead of a team that only lost by 3 points on the road to the eventual national champions. A team has to finish in the top eight to make the championship playoff series, and the top ranked teams face an easier matchup in the first round, so there is as much motivation to win as ever. If a team loses their final game of the season, they are as likely as ever to drop out of the top eight teams. Arkansas lost the SEC championship game, and fell all the way to #12.
----

A few weeks ago, Urban "Crybaby" Meyer was whining and lobbying for the immediate dismantlement of the BCS system, and the installation of a playoff system. Meyer got his way, and hopefully he'll follow through with his demands to initiate discussions for the immediate dismantlement of the BCS system. Lloyd Carr is too proud and stoic to stoop to the levels of Meyer, but surely everybody can see the injustice and complete arbitrariness of the system currently in place.

BCS Update - It's Election Night all over Again

2006-12-03T14:58:00.000-05:00

It feels like the night of the 2000 and 2004 elections. The race is so close, but I have the impending feeling of doom. I already have every reason in the world to hate the state of Florida after the election fiasco. Does poetic justice not account for anything?

MGoblog has already declared Florida the winner, after they took 71% of the 2nd place ballots in the coach's poll. After USC lost, I was almost sure that Michigan and Florida would split those 2nd place ballots up for grabs, but it looks like they went unanimously for Florida.

It's down to the computer polls and the Harris Interactive Polls. Florida is up .948 to .933, or .017. Last week, Michigan held a comfortable 0.0302 lead in the Harris Interactive poll, but it looks like the entire country was swayed by that mockery of a football game that was the SEC championship, and the blatant lobbying of coach "crybaby" Urban Meyer, and the staff of the CBS broadcasting team.

I'm still desperately hoping that Michigan can pick up an advantage in the computer polls, and that the Harris Interactive voters have some level of independent though process. What I know:

Sagarin has Michigan #2, Florida #3
Wolfe has Michigan #2, Florida #3
Billingsley - Michigan had a massive lead over Florida in Billingsley, and should hold on
Anderson-Hester - Michigan had a slight 0.004 lead last week, and might hold on
Massey -Already had Florida at #3, and Michigan at #4. Should finish #2 and #3, with USC falling
Colley - Already had Florida at #3 and Michigan #4. Should finishe #2 and #3, with USC falling

So - If Anderson-Hester goes to Florida, we have:
Michigan S2, W2, B2, A3, M3, C3
Florida S3, W3, B3, A2, M2, C2

The highest and lowest rankings are dropped off, so we finish with a virtual tie.

If Anderson-Hester goes to Michigan, we have:
Michigan S2, W2, B2, A2, M3, C3
Florida S3, W3, B3, A3, M2, C2

Michigan - 3 Second Place and 1 Third Place votes
Florida - 1 Second Place, and 3 Third Place votes

Overall, this would give Michigan a commanding .0300 lead in the computer ranking, and would completely wipe out the .017 lead given to Florida over the Coach's poll. Since Michigan had a comfortable 0.0302 lead over Florida in the Harris Interactive, they might have enough to hold on should this scenario pan out.

*CROSSING FINGERS, HOPING, AND PRAYING FOR AN ANDERSON-HESTER MIRACLE, ALONG WITH SANE VOTERS IN THE HARRIS INTERACTIVE*

BCS Results Trickling In CROSSING FINGERS, PRAYING, AND HOPING

2006-12-03T14:03:00.000-05:00

Sagarin Ratings

#1 Ohio State
#2 Michigan
#3 Florida
#4 USC
#5 LSU
#6 Boise State

Wolfe Ratings

#1 Ohio State
#2 Michigan
#3 Florida
#4 USC
#5 Louisville
#6 LSU
#7 Boise State

Colley projected to go to Florida
Billingsly projected to go to Michigan
Anderson-Hester is projected as a slight lead to Michigan

It looks like the Computer rankings comes down to Anderson-Hester. Since the best and worst result are thrown out, whoever finishes with the #2 ranking in Anderson-Hester should gain an important 0.010 edge in the overall rank

The Coach's poll is out, and it doesn't look good.

Michigan actually lost a vote, dropping from 1,445 to 1,444. How can that be? A team above them falls, and they lose a vote? Someone is obviously gaming the system? I wonder how many SEC-biased coaches have Michigan ranked #4 or lower? Meanwhile, Florida picks up the entire boost from USC's loss, gaining 65 votes, jumping from #4 to #2, with 1470 votes.

BCS Rank to date:

Florida (1460/1575 votes - .9333)
Michigan (1444/1575 votes - .9175) Florida has a .0158 edge in the Coaches poll.

If Michigan takes the Anderson-Hester, the edge should fall to .0058, making it all come down to the Harris Interactive. Last week, Michigan had 2614 votes, while Florida had 2528. That gave Michigan a .0302 advantage, which would be more than enough to give them the BCS birth. If Michigan can hold on to a seventeen vote lead (currently 97), it should be enough. It all comes down to which team claims more USC votes (I still can't believe Michigan lost votes in the coach's poll. What the hell?)

*CROSSING FINGERS, PRAYING AND HOPING*

Why Michigan should be #2 (The Vanberbilt Addendum)

2006-12-03T12:54:00.000-05:00

It seems like the entire sports world is lobbying for Florida to take the #2 spot over Michigan, for a variety of inane reasons. Michigan is clearly a superior football team to Florida, and I'm just trying to bring some sanity to the world. If you haven't already done so, first check out my last two blog entries, BCS Talking Points (AKA: Why Michigan Deserves a Rematch) and OthelloRank Strength of Schedule.

The SEC isn't not the super-powerhouse that everyone is making it out to be. Last season, #21 Wisconsin exposed this with a convincing 24-10 over #7 Auburn in the Capitol One bowl. This season, USC exposed this with a 50-14 beatdown on the road against #8 Arkansas, which was one muffed punt away from winning the SEC championship.

The SEC's winning %s are overinflated, due to a weak out of conference schedule that featured 15 matchups against Division I-AA opponents. The lone impressive out-of-conference win for the SEC was Tennessee's 35-18 win over Cal, who turned out to be rather mediocre anyway.

Let's take a look at Vanberbilt's record. Vanderbilt is the only common opponent between Michigan and Florida. In the first week of the season, Michigan handed Vanderbilt a 27-7 drubbing, outgaining them by over 200 yards, and holding the Commodores to 171 total offensive yards.

Let's look at how Vanberbilt performed against the rest of the SEC:

Vs. Florida: Loss 25-19. Vanderbilt puts up 391 yards, outgaining the Gators by 60 yards. Florida throws three interceptions. Florida manages to salvage a victory when they recover Vanderbilt's onside kick attempt with just over 2 minutes remaining.

Vs. Arkansas: Loss 21-19. Vanderbilt puts up 364 yards, but a failed 2 point conversion in the 4th quarter keeps them from tying up the game against the team that was a muffed punt away from winning the SEC Championship.

Vs. Georgia: Win 24-22. Georgia was at one time ranked as high as #7 in the coaches poll, falls to the SEC bottom feeders.

Vs. Alabama: Loss 13-10.

Kentucky, Tennessee and South Carolina all easily handled Vanderbilt, but the point remains that several of the supposed to top-tier teams in the SEC struggled against this supposed bottom feeder. This has all the markings of a mediocre/overrated conference.

There is little to no evidence to support the claim that the SEC is a tougher conference than the Big Ten. In fact, most evidence points to the contrary. The SEC is composed of a bunch of middling/overrated teams that are exposed each time they face a stronger out-of-conference opponent. (See Wisconsin vs. Auburn, USC vs. Arkansas, Michigan vs. Vanderbilt)

Florida's out-of-conference schedule featured C-USA opponents Southern Miss and UCF, along with Division II-A bottom feeder Western Carolina (who finished 0-7 in a Division II-A Conference. Western Carolina's only two wins of the season came against Chowan (???), who lost every game of the season, and Eastern Kentucky, of the OVC (???)). This out of conference schedule tells us nothing, and the fact that SEC is overrated exposes the fact that Florida's supposedly toughest schedule in the nation is vastly overrated.

My own strength of schedule calculations show that the Big Ten has vastly superior top end talent in Ohio State, Michigan and Wisconsin. Florida struggled for many portions of the season, and consistently looked mediocre on their route to an 12-1 season. Michigan, meanwhile, dominated in every facet of every game this season, and truly looked like a national title contender. Their only loss was by 3 points, on the road, to the #1 team in the nation. They truly deserve a rematch on neutral territory to determine who the #1 team in the nation should be.

OthelloRank Strength of Schedule - Michigan's tougher than Florida

2006-12-03T12:15:00.000-05:00

I've put together the updated strength-of-schedule component from OthelloRank.

1. Illinois - 63.415
2. Stanford - 67.238
3. Connecticut - 69.199
4. Michigan - 70.084
5. Minnesota - 72.134
6. Florida - 74.279
7. South Carolina - 78.599
8. Arizona - 79.779
9. Cincinnati - 80.923
10. Indiana - 82.160
11. Mississippi State - 84.571
12. Kentucky - 86.663
13. USC - 87.165
14. Iowa - 89.291
15. Penn State - 90.316

Things to note:

Michigan is ahead of Florida
6 of the top 15 teams are from the Big Ten, while only 4 reside in the SEC. Big Ten schedules are considered tough because they had to face Michigan, Ohio State, and Wisconsin. I through out matchups against Division I-AA opponents entirely, but if I included those games, the SEC would be a lot worse off, since the Big Ten faced only 9 D-IAA opponents all season, while the SEC faced 15.
Face it - the SEC was overrated all season long, and Florida did not have a stronger schedule than Michigan. When you factor in how dominant Michigan looked all season long, while Florida limped through much of the season, this shouldn't even be close.

BCS Talking Points (AKA Why Michigan Deserves a rematch over the Gators)

2006-12-03T11:21:00.000-05:00

Michigan completely dominated every opponent they faced this season, save the #1 team in the country, on the road. Florida needed two blocked field goals to get by unranked South Carolina, and they struggled against mediocre teams like Georgia and Florida State. Michigan played like a national championship contender for the entire season, while Florida struggled for much of the season, and managed to limp there way to an 12-1 season.
Michigan's only loss came on the road to the #1 team in the country. They lost by 3 points. Florida lost convincingly to Auburn, a team which later lost to Georgia, who went 4-4 in the SEC.
The argument that the SEC is a stronger conference is a myth. Michigan's top end victories (Blowout vs. Notre Dame, impressive wins vs. Wisconsin and Penn State on the road) are more impressive than Florida's (Impressive win vs. LSU, fluky win over Arkansas, squeaking by Tennessee 21-20) According to Jeff Sagarin, Michigan has a stronger strength of schedule than Florida.
The only reason people feel that Florida's schedule is more impressive is the strength of the middling/mediocore opponents they played. Is defeating 8-4 Georgia, 7-5 Kentucky, 6-6 Alabama and 7-5 South Carolina really that much more impressive than defeating 8-4 Penn State, 9-4 Central Michigan 6-6 Minnesota, and 6-6 Iowa. We're talking about national championship contenders, and the argument is over which team faced more mediocre opponents. National championship contenders are supposed to breeze by this type of competition. Michigan did, and Florida struggled.
The SEC's win loss records are bolstered by an impressive array of wins over Division I-AA schools. Florida's opponents defeated 15 D-I AA opponents, while Michigan's opponents faced only 9. Florida's direct opposition have a slight edge in winning percentage, at .580 vs .579, but when you look at opponents-opponents winning percentages, Michigan has a .526 vs. .518 edge. If you factor in the fact that most D-I AA schools would've gone 0-11 vs DI-A competition, the edge is .454 vs. .419. Sagarin's rankings show that Michigan had a stronger schedule than Florida, and I tend to agree with him.
The SEC championship game was a joke. Punt Returner Fish handed them the ball game with a poor decision to field a punt over his shoulder, when it clearly would've gone in for a touchback. The game was filled with ridiculous coaching decisions, like Meyer pulling out a fake punt from his own 15 yard line in the 4th quarter (referee-aided, by neglecting to call a blatant hold) Meyer showed terrible clock management by burning all three timeouts in the third quarter, including one that resulted in a decision to punt the ball (The previously aforementioned Fish muff. Chris Leak threw a "pitch" six to Arkansas. Dick did everything he can to giftwrap the game to the Gators, as Arkansas managed to throw three interceptions while they were trying to mount a comeback. The game was a comedy of errors.
There is no way you can watch this Florida team from last night, that barely eaked out a win against unranked Florida State, squeaked out a 21-20 win vs. Tennessee, and had to block a field goal as time expired to hold out a victory over unranked South Carolina, and came close to losing to unranked Vanderbilt, and declare this team the #2 team in the country.
The only common opponent shared between Michigan and Florida was Vanderbilt. Michigan soundly defeated the Commodores 27-7, and outgained them by over 200 yards. Florida was outgained by Vanderbilt, and won by less than a touchdown 25-19.
Urban Meyer is a whining crybaby. You don't reward these people by giving them what they want.
Vegas says Michigan is a 6 point favorite in a head-to-head matchup over Florida
Yahoo Sports says nationwide, Fans want to see Michigan-Ohio State over Florida.

Updated OthelloRank rankings

2006-12-03T01:23:00.000-05:00

If it was up to my computer ranking algorithm, Michigan would play in the national title game, but by the slimmest of margins. With my algorithm, Michigan has wins against 4 of the top 26 teams (#6 Wisconsin, #7 Notre Dame, #22 Penn State and #26 Central Michigan), while Florida has wins against 3 (#8 LSU, #14 Arkansas and #16 Tennessee)

1. Ohio State 73.000
2. Michigan 66.920
3. Florida 66.670
4. Boise State 65.000
5. Louisville 49.330
6. Wisconsin 48.360
7. Notre Dame 33.750
8. LSU 31.500
9. Auburn 20.080
10. West Virginia 17.640
11. Oklahoma 15.540
12. USC 14.750
13. Wake Forest 14.170
14. Arkansas 10.420
15. Rutgers 9.820
16. Tennessee 9.250
17. Hawaii 3.910
18. Virginia Tech 2.730
19. TCU 0.090
20. Brigham Young - 6.170
21. Texas - 8.550
22. Penn State - 9.820
23. California - 20.910
24. Navy - 27.550
25. Texas A&M - 29.820
26. Central Michigan - 37.850

Gary Danielson is a Second Rate Announcer

2006-12-02T22:29:00.000-05:00

I just left a complaint for CBS on their feedback form:

The team covering the SEC Championship was horrible. There is no call for such an obvious and openly biased attempt to sway the opinion of BCS voters. I'm tempted to boycott CBS entirely, and never again watch a televised college football game on your station. It is completely irresponsible to play favorites when broadcasting a nationally televised championship football, and attempting to undermine and overtly influence the BCS voting process. Quotes from Gary Danielson during the game:

"Let's face it, Michigan is a second place team".

"This is the SEC. WE don't call that".

Let's face it - Gary Danielson is a second rate announcer, and has no business openly lobbying for and attempting to influence the outcome of the final BCS ballot.

Screw you, CBS - The BCS Mess - Michigan or Florida

2006-12-02T21:41:00.000-05:00

These CBS commentators are obnoxious. They are openly lobbying for a Florida-OSU national championship game on a national broadcast. this is downright ludicrous. Why should two homer broadcasters have so much influence and power over the BCS selection process.

There is no reason that Florida should jump ahead of Michigan. The standard argument is that Florida has played a tougher schedule, but I just don't believe that to be true. Tennessee, Auburn, and Georgia have all proved to be overrated, so the only truly impressive victories wins this season are over LSU and Arkansas. Florida had two one-point victories -

21-20 vs. Tennessee
17-16 vs. South Carolina

Against South Carolina, they needed two blocked field goal attempts, including a second blocked field goal as time expired to pull out the victory.

Florida struggled to pull out a 25-19 victory over Vanderbilt, the only common opponent, which Michigan defeated handily, winning 27-7.

Florida won 4 games by 7 points or less. Michigan lost 2.

Michigan's only sin for the season was dropping a game by 3 points, on the road, on terrible field conditions, against the #1 team in the nation.

If only Fish made this all a lot easier by letting that muffed punt return go into the endzone, instead of foolishly trying to handle it. That play turned the entire complexion of the game, and the BCS standings. Arizona had just come back from a seventeen point deficit, with 21 straight points, and the ball in their possession. Florida scored the next 14 points, and never looked back. That play was the difference in the game.

Urban Meyer has been a crybaby all season long, openly lobbying for the immediate dismantlement of the BCS system if a Michigan/OSU rematch does occur. What kind of coach calls a fake punt from their own 15 in the third quarter? What kind of commentator lauds praises on this man after a mockery of a football game?

I leave you with the current Wikipedia entry on Gary Danielson, the CBS commentator who felt the need to make an open case for Florida advancing to the National Championship over Michigan:

Gary Danielson is a biased sportscaster who makes bold statements without basis. He broadcasts for the Southeast conference as the Big 10 does not want him. He's without question an embarrassment.

Admittedly, looking at the edit log for this article reveals that this is vandalism, as a direct result of his open lobbying on national television, but I pretty much agree with the sentiment. The openly biased opinion of these CBS commentators was disgusting and uncalled for.

The SEC is a joke

2006-12-02T20:52:00.000-05:00

All I hear is everybody talking about how great the SEC is, but this Arkansas/Florida matchup is a mockery of football. Urban Meyer calls a fake punt from his own fifteen, down by four in the third quarter, and manages to avoid looking by a fool because the refs choose to ignore a blatant holding call. Meyer than proceeds to burn all three timeouts for no apparent reason; Chris Leaks throws a "pitch" six; Arkansas responds with a gift of their own, when punt returner Fish turns his back on a deep punt, and instead of letting it go into the endzone, he muffs the punt, and leaves the ball lying on the ground in the endzone, for a free Gators touchdown, allowing them to get back in the game.

Florida is up 24-21 with 14:21 to go, but I don't see how anybody can vote Florida ahead of Michigan after this mess. The last coaches ballots are made public, so anybody voting Michigan lower than #4 will look like a complete ass, no matter how this game ends up. A rematch should be inevitable, but a 65-yard rushing touchdown by the Gators has me back on pins and needles. I really want Arkansas to pull out the win, so I can rest easily tonight, and we can all avoid a "BCS Mess".

USC bows out; Go Razerbacks!

2006-12-02T19:59:00.000-05:00

Wow! What an upset! UCLA pulls off the miracle win, and renews Michigan's chances at a national championship in one fell swoop. What a defensive performance by the Bruins, capped by a tipped ball, and an interception by Eric McNeal. It's down to Michigan and Florida, and the Wolverines have the inside track, since they have a decent edge in the BCS standings.

If Florida pulls out a win in the SEC championship, it will come down to style points. You have to assume that Michigan and Florida would split the #2 votes up for grabs, and Michigan would hold on, but the combination of bandwagon jumping by the media, short memories by those voting, an SEC bias, and the anti-rematch vote, are enough that Florida moving into the #2 spot is still a possibility.

The good news is that after falling down 17-0 early, Arkansas just picked off an interception, and Swiss Army Knife Darren McFadden just threw a touchdown pass to make it 17-14 Florida. Here's to holding out hope that Arkansas pulls out the win so I actually sleep tonight.

Thank you, once again, UCLA, for a fine defensive performance :)

UCLA Takes the lead!

2006-12-02T18:49:00.000-05:00

Woohoo! Come on' Bruins! 5:45 seconds and one quarter to play. The Bruins are up 10-9 late in the third quarter, and are on their way to playing the role of spoiler. The UCLA defense is coming up big, and bringing the faint hopes of a Michigan National Championship back to life. LETS GO BRUINS!

LETS GO UCLA BRUINS!!!

2006-11-30T21:16:00.000-05:00

GO BRUINS! I'm still hanging on to faint hopes of a UCLA upset. I spent all of last weekend watching the remaining national title contenders, and hoping for the impossible. Last weekend started out okay with LSU knocking Arizona out of national title contention, although they didn't really have much of a shot anyways. FSU had a decent shot at an upset, but the offense played just well enough to lose. The high point of the game was when Florida State cornerback Michael Garvin kickoff return appeared to have tied the game at 21, but it was called back to the FSU 48 when it was revealed that he stepped an inch out of bounds. Oh well - those in power have decided that Florida is out of the title hunt anyways.

I really wasn't that impressed with USC. They tried to give the game away, but Notre Dame was simply unable to put points on the board, regardless of the seemingly endless number of chances they had in the red zone towards the end of the first half.

If it wasn't for the onside kick returned for a touchdown, the score would've been 37-24, and perhaps the entire country doesn't jump on USC's bandwagon. I bet half the sportswriters in the country didn't stay up to watch the game, took one look at the 44-24 score, and declared USC the new coke. I can't help but feel that if Notre Dame scores in one of those red zone possessions near the end of the first half, the score stays close, and Michigan holds on to the #2 ranking.

I guess I can't complain too much - Michigan had a chance to get the job done themselves, and came up a little short. They managed to keep close, but the combination of a seemingly unstoppable Troy Smith, an incredibly sloppy playing field, a less-than-100% burgess, an injury early on to Barringer, a lack of depth in the secondary, and an unwillingness to adjust to these conditions until the end of the half was just too much for the offense to overcome.

If the Wolverines are resigned to the Rose Bowl, I really, really, really hope that we do not see a rematch against Notre Dame. As one of the biggest Wolverine fans around, I still think I'd have a hard time getting up for that matchup, and I feel like the players would feel the same way. The recent rumors of a Michigan-LSU matchup have me salivating. LSU has been just under the radar all season long, but they are one of the best teams in college football. With all the talk of this being a down year in the Big Ten, and all the accolades going to the PAC10 and SEC, I'd like to see OSU, Michigan and Wisconsin represent during the bowl season. Wisconsin accepted a Capitol One bid, and won't know who they play, but it looks like Arkansas may have the inside track at the moment.

If the Big Ten wins all three of these matchups, they lay claim to the strongest conference title:

#1 OSU vs. #2 USC
#3 Michigan vs. #5 LSU
#7 Wisconsin vs. #8 Arkansas

OthelloRank - A First Attempt at a Non-biased BCS Computer Ranking Algorithm

2006-11-30T13:32:00.000-05:00

I've been frustrated over the complete arbitrariness of deciding which of Michigan, USC and Florida is most worthy of a matchup against Ohio State in the national championship. I wanted to see for myself if I could come up with completely objective and non-arbitrary ranking algorithm. I was inspired by the simplicity of the game Reversi/Othello. A more thorough description of the algorithm used follows.

When I finally got around to running the program as I had initially designed in my head, I ended up with Ohio State ranked #1, Boise State ranked #2, Michigan #3. I realized that I had a few parameters I could tweak ( i.e. how many levels of propagation should be counted, how many points to assign a loss, or a secondary loss, etc. Eventually, I concluded that it's impossible to make these decisions without introducing my own bias into the results, thus negating my purpose for creating the entire experiment. I guess I'd have to start by configuring the rankings against historical results without taking the current season into account at all. Once I've fine-tuned things, I can turn around and use the algorithm with confidence that I haven't introduced my own bias. If they don't scrap the BCS entirely, I might try to work on that for next season.

I did come up with some pretty convincing results with about five hours of work, half of which was writing a program to extract the teams, schedules and results from ESPN's website. In the end, I decided to only propagate out two levels, and to count wins as 1 point, and those opponent's wins as a second point, losses as -15 points, and those opponent's losses as -10 points. Using this approach, I have my top four as #1. Ohio State, #2 Florida, #3 USC, #4 Michigan.

In the end, I ended up solving nothing. I can make my rankings look however I want, depending on how much emphasis I put on losses. It is readily apparent that both Florida and USC had tougher schedules than Michigan. If Michigan had chosen a tougher SEC or PAC10 opponent instead of Ball State, Vanberbilt, or Central Michigan as another out-of-conference opponent, they would've had enough to overtake USC/Florida, but as it stands, it's hard to make a case. Florida gets the nod over USC because a loss against Auburn doesn't cost as much as a loss against Oregon State.

I guess when it comes down to it, this all points to the necessity of a playoff system. On the one hand, a playoff system may somewhat diminish the importance of the regular system, but on the other, it's incredibly agonizing to see Michigan come so close to a national championship, but fall short the series of belts, pulleys, gears and kludges known as the BCS.

Download Links:

OthelloRank Executable: http://www.filefactory.com/file/80f2f3/ (Note: .NET 2.0 Framework is required - 37 KB)

OthelloRank Source Code: http://www.filefactory.com/file/9c12f6/ (Written using VS2005/C# - 77 KB)

Results

Top Twelve

1. Ohio State 20.25
2. Florida 19.27
3. USC 19.00
4. Michigan 18.92
5. Louisville 16.45
6. Boise State 13.27
7. Wisconsin 12.82
8. Rutgers 12.00
9. LSU 11.92
10. Notre Dame 11.17
11. Arkansas 9.55
12. Auburn 9.42

********************************
Michigan Team Report
********************************

Wins Against (11 total)
------------------------

Vanderbilt (3-8) SCORE: 12
Central Michigan (8-4) SCORE: 18
Notre Dame (10-2) SCORE: 42
Wisconsin (10-1) SCORE: 26
Minnesota (5-6) SCORE: 22
Michigan State (4-8) SCORE: 17
Penn State (7-4) SCORE: 21
Iowa (5-6) SCORE: 22
Northwestern (4-7) SCORE: 14
Ball State (5-6) SCORE: 12
Indiana (5-6) SCORE: 22

Losses Against (1 total)
------------------------

Ohio State (12-0) SCORE: -1

Cumulative score is 227

Weighted Score is 18.92

--------------------------------------

********************************
USC Team Report
********************************

Wins Against (10 total)
------------------------

Arkansas (9-2) SCORE: 31
Nebraska (8-3) SCORE: 28
Arizona (5-6) SCORE: 26
Washington State (6-6) SCORE: 21
Washington (5-7) SCORE: 22
Arizona State (6-5) SCORE: 25
Stanford (1-10) SCORE: 8
Oregon (6-5) SCORE: 27
California (7-3) SCORE: 25
Notre Dame (10-2) SCORE: 42

Losses Against (1 total)
------------------------

Oregon State (7-4) SCORE: -46

Cumulative score is 209

Weighted Score is 19

********************************
Florida Team Report
********************************

Wins Against (10 total)
------------------------

Southern Miss (7-4) SCORE: 20
UCF (3-8) SCORE: 9
Tennessee (9-3) SCORE: 37
Kentucky (6-5) SCORE: 24
Alabama (6-6) SCORE: 20
LSU (10-2) SCORE: 40
Georgia (7-4) SCORE: 31
Vanderbilt (3-8) SCORE: 12
South Carolina (6-5) SCORE: 24
Florida State (6-6) SCORE: 31

Losses Against (1 total)
------------------------

Auburn (10-2) SCORE: -36

Cumulative score is 212
Weighted Score is 19.27

************************************
About OthelloRank
************************************

OthelloRank is an attempt to build a completely objective BCS computer ranking algorithm. There is no preseason rankings, no assumptions, no margins of victory, or anything else of that sort. The only item that is looked at is wins and losses.

The algorithm is called OthelloRank, and it loosely based on the basic concepts of the board game Othello (Also known as Reversi). In Othello, the object of the game is to capture as many pieces as possible, thereby changing the polarity of those pieces on the game board that don't already belong to you.

Assume that a win represents a white game piece, and a loss represents a black game piece. In Othello, the simplest move you can perform is to surround and capture one opposing piece on the game board. In OthelloRank, each game played is considered one move. The OthelloRank equivalent to capturing a single game piece is to defeat an opponent that has zero wins. This move flips the polarity of a single team, and provides you with one point.

Moving back to the board game, With a strategically placed move, it is possible to capture pieces in several different directions with a single move. This would be considered a quality move. The equivalent in OthelloRank is a "Quality Win". If you defeat an opponent with five wins on the season. The polarity of each of those teams switches, giving you six points. In addition, additional points can be won by proxy. Each sub-opponent that one of those opponents has defeated can also have their polarity switched, resulting in additional points. This process propagates on outward until either the configured limit, or until all possible outcomes have been considered. Each opponent's polarity can only be switched once, resulting in a maximum theoretical score of 118 points per turn (You cannot obtain points)

Consider the reverse - A loss in OthelloRank is the equivalent of an opponent taking a turn in the game of Othello. Polarities are flipped the opposite direction, resulting in a net loss of points. Losses are propagated by proxy, meaning that if you lose against a strong team, with no losses themselves, you will only lose one point (The exact number of points is configurable), but if you lose against a weak team, with many losses, many additional points may be lost.

Each game played by a team is considered. Games played against non-Division I-A opponents are thrown out entirely. The final rank is generated by dividing the cumulative score achieved by the # of games played. The maximum theoretical score is 118, and the minimum theoretical score is -118.

At a glance, this method may appear to give teams that play in weaker conferences a competitive advantage, since they have inflated records by playing against weaker competition. The theory is, that, over the course of a season, the opponents in those weaker conferences will have compiled worse non-conference schedules, resulting in fewer available net points available. The goal with this ranking algorithm is to eliminate all arbitrary assumptions, and allow the computer to decide which team is the strongest.

Cheering for the Enemy

2006-11-24T11:24:00.000-05:00

Michigan wrapped up their season last week, and forced to watch the rest of the season unfold from the sidelines. The Wolverines won't know whether to pack their bags for the National Championship game in Glendale, AZ, or the Rose Bowl in Pasadena.

There four teams with a possibility of making it into the national championship game to face OSU are Michigan, USC, Florida and Arkansas. Arkansas has a very remote of making the big show, as they were blown out at home by USC, while Michigan's only loss was by 3 points on the road, to the #1 team in the nation. The only way Arkansas can take over the #2 seed is with incredibly impressive wins against both LSU and Florida.

This afternoon, at 2:30 PM, I will assume the roll of a Tigers fan, as Arkansas visits LSU on the road. An LSU win isn't absolutely necessary, but it will serve the dual purpose of eliminating the Razorbacks from national title contention and hurting USC's strength of schedule.

Tomorrow afternoon, I will become a huge Seminoles fan, as Florida visits their in-state rivals, the Florida State Seminoles at 12:00 PM. With a win over Florida State and Arkansas, Florida make have enough to overtake Michigan, since many voters will look for any excuse to avoid a rematch in the title game.

Saturday evening (8:00 PM) is the biggest game of the season for a Michigan Wolverine fan that does not include the Wolverines taking the field. Although the remote possibility exists for UCLA to knock off the Trojans in the final game of the season, the best chance for a USC loss is today. This is the single biggest thing that needs to happen for Michigan to advance to a neutral field showdown vs. OSU.

11/24 Arkansas vs LSU 2:30 PM (An Arkansas loss would knock the Razerbacks out of contention) VEGAS LINE: LSU -2
11/25 Florida at Florida State 12:00 PM (A Florida loss would knock the Gators out of contention) VEGAS LINE: FLORIDA -9
11/25 USC vs. Notre Dame 8:00 PM (A USC loss would knock the Trojans out of contention) VEGAS LINE: USC -7.5
12/02 USC at UCLA 4:30 PM (If USC manages to get by the Fighting Irish, this is one last chance for a loss)
12/02 SEC Championship Arkansas vs. Florida 6:00 PM (One last chance for either Arkansas or Florida to lose)

Lobbying for "The Rematch"

2006-11-20T19:50:00.000-05:00

Here's to hoping Notre Dame does Michigan a huge favor this Saturday. An LSU win over Arkansas on Friday, and then an Arkansas win in the SEC championship would cement the deal. I feel that USC is the only team that still deserves a chance to steal the #2 seed, although that stretch of games involving Washington State, Washington, Arizona and Oregon State didn't exactly scream out "National Title Contender".

There is no way anyone is going to rank Notre Dame above Michigan, so a win by the Fighting Irish does nothing but increase Michigan's strength of schedule. Arkansas got blown out badly by USC earlier this year.

The tough call for me is between Michigan and Florida. The Gators are 10-1, with their only loss coming against #14 Auburn, but they needed a couple blocked field goals to get by South Carolina, and the margin of victory over Vanderbilt was nothing to write home about. To be fair - Michigan squeaked by Ball State earlier this season, but that was because Carr put in the second stringers on defense way too early.

Ranking the #2s

#2 Michigan
Quality Victories:
at #5 Notre Dame (47-21); vs #8 Wisconsin (27-13); at #25 Penn State (17-10)
Losses: at #1 Ohio State (42-39)
Ugly Wins: unranked Ball State (34-26)

#3 USC
Quality Wins:
at #6 Arkansas (50-14), vs #23 Nebraska (28-10), vs #22 Cal (23-9)
Losses: at unranked Oregon State (33-31)
Ugly Wins: unranked Washington State (28-22), unranked Washington (26-20), unranked Arizona State (28-21)

#4 Florida
Quality Wins:
at #19 Tennessee (21-20), vs #9 LSU (23-10),
Losses: at #14 Auburn 27-17
Ugly Wins: at unranked Vanberbilt 25-19, unranked S Carolina 17-16

#5 Arkansas
Quality Wins:
#19 Tennessee (31-14), at #14 Auburn (27-10)
Losses: vs #3 USC (50-14)
Ugly Wins: at unranked Vanberbilt 21-19; vs unranked Alabama 24-23; at unranked S Carolina 26-20

Breakdown:

Michigan 3 Quality Wins, 1 loss (very close; vs #1 team in the country), 1 ugly win
USC 3 Quality Wins, 1 loss (vs an unranked opponent), 3 Ugly Wins
Florida 2 Quality Wins, 1 loss (vs #14 team in country), 2 Ugly Wins
Arkansas 2 Quality Wins, 1 loss (blowout at home vs #3 team in the country) 3 ugly wins

Michigan lost by a field goal to the #1 team in the country; USC lost against an unranked opponent, Florida lost against Auburn, and barely squeeked by S Carolina, and Arkansas was blown out by USC, and looked very ordinary against several opponents this season. Notre Dame was blown out by Michigan, so moving them ahead of the Wolverines is a non-starter.

Regardless of how the rest of the season plays out, I don't know how you move any team ahead of the Wolverines. In order to remove all speculation over who should play in the national championship, I really hope USC, Arkansas and Florida all find a way to lose in their last two games, but I feel the Wolverines should play in the championship, regardless of what happens between now and then. The chief argument against the rematch is that it is unfair to require that Ohio State defeat Michigan twice in the same season. I dismiss that argument are irrelevent. The BCS is designed to pit the two top teams against each other in the National Championship, on a neutral field. The key to this is that it should be a neutral playing field. OSU defeated Michigan by a field goal at home. Does that really tell us that OSU is a better football team than Michigan? If OSU is a better team, they should be able to defeat the Wolverines on a neutral field. If Michigan wins in the rematch, I'd argue that it should be enough to give the Wolverines the outright championship, because the all the first games showed us is that Ohio State is three points better than Michigan when playing at home.

Michigan and Ohio State are far and away the best two teams in the country. This weekend, Ohio State definitely looked more impressive, but they had time to prepare for the absolutely horrible field conditions, had the home field advantage, and got a huge break when Barringer went down, exposing the weakest link in Michigan's lineup, which is depth at secondary.

Critics of the rematch argue that the game wasn't really as close as the final score (42-39) indicates, but I beg to differ. OSU fans like to point out that the only thing that kept the game close was two fluke turnovers. True - a couple of those turnovers were giftwrapped, but it wasn't like OSU didn't have a few things go their way. If that roughing the passer against Crable was avoided, Michigan, who had all the momentum, would've go the ball back, with a chance to take the lead; Manningham was wide open for a sure touchdown, but slipped on the cursed grass; if Barringer didn't go down early, there is no way those two runs by Pittman and Wells would've both gone for scores; Michigan defenders were falling all over the place - I'm almost positive that Tressel dictated that the field be kept in the worst shape possible, and has his players practice on the field to determine what types of cuts they can get away with without falling over, in order to gain a competitive advantage.

A rematch is the best thing that could happen for college football. If Ohio States wants the national championship, they shouldn't be afraid to play the Wolverines on a neutral playing field, and a level playing surface. OSU and Michigan went into the game with the two of the most impressive defenses in recent memory, and both were exposed. A rematch would allow both teams to remedy the issues exposed on defense. This weekends game was a truly exciting match, and the highest rated television audience for a College Football match in the past thirteen years. Since this game lived up to all the hype, a rematch would be an even bigger spectacle. I believe a rematch would be the true "Game of the Century".

Michigan is still #2

2006-11-19T17:31:00.000-05:00

The new BCS rankings came out, and Michigan is still #2, with USC close behind.

Since Michigan lost by only 3 points, on the road, to the #1 team in the country, it didn't hurt their ranking much, and it leaves the distinct possibility of a rematch for the national championship (on a neutral field, to boot)

The rematch basically comes down to next week, when Notre Dame plays USC on the road. USC has the best change of overtaking Michigan in the BCS rankings, and a win over Notre Dame would guarantee that to happen. However, if Notre Dame pulls out the win, it increases Michigan's strength of the schedule to the point, where I don't think any other team can catch them.

A Notre Dame win over USC should be enough to guarantee a rematch, but there are still two SEC teams that overtake Michigan,depending on how the season plays out. In an ideal world, LSU beats Arkansas, and then Arkansas defeats Florida in the SEC championship. That scenario would guarantee a rematch.

Key Remaining Matchups:

11/24 Arkansas vs LSU 2:30 PM (An Arkansas loss would knock the Razerbacks out of contention)
11/25 Florida at Florida State 12:00 PM (A Florida loss would knock the Gators out of contention)
11/25 USC vs. Notre Dame 8:00 PM (A USC loss would knock the Trojans out of contention)
12/02 USC at UCLA 4:30 PM (If USC manages to get by the Fighting Irish, this is one last chance for a loss)
12/02 SEC Championship Arkansas vs. Florida 6:00 PM (One last chance for either Arkansas or Florida to lose)

Each of the three contenders (USC, Florida and Arkansas) have two chances left to lose. #3 USC has to play #6 Notre Dame, who is 10-1, with only a loss to #2 Michigan. #5 Arkansas has to play #9 LSU, who is 9-2 and then #4 Florida. #4 Florida has to play in-state rival Florida State, and then #5 Arkansas. There is a good chance all three teams will lose one more game. The most important matchup will be USC vs. Notre Dame, because if USC loses, there is a very good chance Michigan will play in the national title game, regardless of how Arkansas and Florida finish out the season.

The worst case scenario for Michigan is that they represent the Big Ten in the Rose Bowl against USC or Cal. It's been a very good season as a Wolverine fan, and regardless of how things play out in the upcoming weeks, I am proud of what this team has accomplished.

RIP, Bo Schembechler

2006-11-17T14:19:00.000-05:00

Edit: It's tough to find just the right words to say on the subject. Brian, from mgoblog, has expressed it better than I can hope to. See Eleven Swans.

A sad day, but also a great day to remember the greatest coach in Michigan football. He had a heart attack in 1970, and another one in 1987, so this was a long time coming, but it is incredibly hard to take for football fans. Bo Schembechler lived for the Michigan/Ohio State rivalry - while he was coach, his team reviewed tapes of Ohio State every week of the season in preparation for the big game. He was the Michigan coach, during the "Ten Years War", while legend Woody Hayes was the Ohio State coach.

Bo Schembechler started his career working as an assistant for Woody Hayes, and he titled his autobiography "Woody and Me". Woody passed away in 1987. It's somehow fitting the Bo passed away during the weekend of the biggest game in Michigan/Ohio State history, while the entire national spotlight is on the rivalry. ESPN is going to spend the entire day covering Bo Schembechler's life story.

Bo was not planning on attending the game, since his health prevented him from attending away games, but I'm sure he was looking forward to watching this game. His last public comments were at a press conference earlier this week. You can listen to audio from the press conference at MGoBlue.com.

Further reading:

Wikipedia - Bo Schembechler

Wikipedia - Michigan - Ohio State Rivalary

ESPN just had a helicopter shot of the Michigan Football teams buses departing for Columbus, OH. The biggest game in the history of college football just took a backseat to a football legend. The memory of Bo Schembechler will weight heavy on the hearts of everyone at the game tomorrow, as the legend of Bo and Woody lives on during another chapter in the most storied rivalary in all of sports.

The Game of the Century - Michigan Wolverines vs. Ohio State Buckeyes

2006-11-12T13:42:00.000-05:00

Everybody is talking about it. The next "Game of the Century". Querying Google News for "Game of the Century" currently brings up 165 results, although some appear to be discussing chess and less well-known non-American football. A couple weeks ago, I referenced Wikipedia to see what they had to say about the Game of the Century. There were eight different games listed as the "Game of the Century", but no mention of the storied Michigan/Ohio State University rivalry. I decided to follow in the footsteps of my personal hero, Stephen Colbert, and edit Wikipedia with my own version of the truth, adding a ninth entry to the GOTC article:

2006 #2 Michigan vs. #1 Ohio State

This yet-to-be-played matchup will take place on November 18th, 2006, and has frequently been billed as the "Game of the Century". Ohio State has been ranked #1 in all major polls for the entire season. Michigan started the season ranked #14 in the AP Poll, but jumped up to #6 after week three with a dominating 46-21 road win against then #2 Notre Dame. Michigan took over the #2 ranking in all three major polls (AP, BCS, Coach's poll) in week ten, after USC stumbled against unranked Oregon State. Ohio State's biggest win of the season was a dominating 24-7 win on the road against then #2 Texas. This past week, both teams, perhaps caught looking forward to their head-to-head matchup, struggled against unranked opponents, as Michigan pulled out a 34-26 win over Ball State, and Ohio State held on for a 17-10 win over Illinois.

November 18th will mark the first time Michigan and Ohio State have entered the season-ending matchup in the storied Michigan-Ohio State rivalry, which ESPN ranked as the greatest sports rivalry in a 2000 poll ^[1], where both teams are undefeated, and ranked #1 and #2 in the nation. ^[2]. The last time the two teams were undefeated when they met was in 1973, where the game finished in a 10-10 tie.

Footnotes

My revision to the Wikipedia entry on the Game of the Century lasted about a week, and then somebody took it down, suggesting that despite the fact that the game has been frequently billed as the Game of of the Century, it is not in fact, the Game of the Century. You can still view my version of the truth in the Wikipedia History.

Technicalities

I continue to follow the media's lead in referring to the upcoming Michigan/OSU matchup as the Game of the Century, despite my wife's insistence that, technically, we cannot declare a Game of the Century when we are only seven years into the current century (or six, if you discuss the matter with one who vehemently declares that there was no year zero, and the millennium should have been celebrated on January 1st, 2001.)

Technically, in that case, I should be free to declare November 18th as the Game of the Century, since the Wikipedia's most recent Game of the Century occurred in 1993, well before the dawn of the twenty-first century. Technically, they should decide on one "Game of the Century" for the twentieth century from the nine offered, and allow my entry to stand as is.

Facts

As I mentioned in the wiki entry, ESPN ranked Michigan/Ohio State as the #1 rivalry in all of sports. Michigan and Ohio State have never met as undefeated opponents ranked as #1 and #2 in the nation. This is the first meeting in the storied #1 ranked rivalry in all of sports where teams are ranked as #1 and #2 in the nation. How can anybody not be excited for this matchup? How is this not the Game of the Century? How am I going to get any sleep this week?

Let the hype begin :)

Then there was 1 (Game) - ChicagoSports.com

Border Battle Reaches Uncharted Territories

Wolverines can finally focus on Ohio State (ESPN)

Let the Hype Begin (Sports Illustrated)

It's finally official: OSU-Michigan will be No. 1 vs. No. 2 (Sportsline)

Nothing Stands Between Ohio State and Michigan (ESPN)

Buckeyes/Michigan: Ready to Rumble (Toronto Star)

Michigan got a first place vote! 62 more up for grabs :)

2006-11-12T13:28:00.000-05:00

The Week #12 AP Poll is here, and Michigan put a small dent in OSU's armor, with 1 out of a possible 63 first place votes. OSU picked up the other 62 first place votes. This is the first week that the voters have unanimously declared Ohio State Michigan as number #1 and #2, as Michigan had 1 first place vote and 62 second place votes.

Florida is the new #3, Rutgers jumps up to #8, Wisconsin moves into the top ten for the first time this season:

1. Ohio State (62) 11-0 1,574

2. Michigan (1) 11-0 1,513

3. Florida 9-1 1,381

4. USC 8-1 1,373

5. Notre Dame 9-1 1,273

6. Arkansas 9-1 1,248

7. West Virginia 8-1 1,113

8. Rutgers 9-0 1,082

9. LSU 8-2 1,054

10. Wisconsin 10-1 928

Middle Tennessee State and Central Michigan both received some recognition for perfect conference records with 1 vote each. I was actually pretty impressed by CMU when they visited Ann Arbor early this season, and I'm glad to see that they're receiving some national recognition.

My only gripe is that a 1 loss West Virginia is a spot ahead of an undefeated Rutgers. Preseason bias' really take a long time to let go of.

Will any legitimate #3 team remaining?

2006-11-12T08:01:00.000-05:00

National Title contenders are dropping like the price of candy the day after Halloween. Each week, the media picks a new darling, and each week, that darling fails to represent. For a while, two sports columnists went so far as to have West Virginia ranked #1 in their polls, despite, at the time, the Mountaineers having a schedule ranked as the 104th easiest in the country. When the Mountaineers ran into their first tough competition of the season, they folded like a double helix.

Early on this season, we witnessed #2 Texas losing to Ohio State in week two, #2 Notre Dame losing to Michigan in week three, #2 Auburn losing to unranked Arkansas in week six, and #2 Florida losing to Auburn in week seven. Since that point, the #1 and #2 ranks have been relatively secure, with Big Ten rivals Ohio State and Michigan holding out for the upcoming Armageddon/Game of the Century^TM.

Since then, it's been #3 and below that has had trouble holding on. In week nine, #3 USC lost to unranked Oregon State. In week ten, newly appointed heir to the throne, West Virginia, couldn't hold on against upstart Louisville. Louisville held on the title of next-in-line for a total of one week, losing to Rutgers on Thursday night, a prelude to the BCS shakeup that occurred last night. In the past week, the following occured:

#3 Louisville lost to #15 Rutgers 28-25
#4 Texas lost to unranked Kansas State 45-42
#5 Auburn was blown out by unranked Georgia 37-15
#8 California lost to unranked Arizona 24-20

and #6 Florida needed to come up with a blocked field goal attempt with eight seconds left to pull out a 17-16 victory from the jaws of defeat over unranked South Carolina.

So, who's left...

#6 Florida is now 9-1, but after barely eaking out the victory over South Carolina, do they deserve to move up to #3. Florida has a clear path to the SEC championship game, and should make a decent case to appear in the national title game with a 12-1 record and an SEC championship.

#7 USC looked impressive in their win over upstart Oregon, two weeks after losing to Oregon State. They now face California and Notre Dame in their next two weeks to wrap up their schedule. USC is 8-1, and should also make a strong case for a national title appearance if they can pull out wins over Cal and Notre Dame. USC has looked pedestrian at times this season, but seems to be putting things together since the big upset.

#9 Notre Dame - Besides the 47-21 blowout loss against Michigan, Notre Dame has held their own. Mind you, their schedule hasn't really been much to brag about since the amazing come-from-behind win against Michigan State. Notre Dame's lone tough remaining match is in two weeks against USC.

#11 Arkansas - After an opening week 50-14 blowout loss against USC, Arkansas continues to roll, with another impressive 31-14 win over #13 Tennessee. If it wasn't for preseason rankings and long-standing biases, Arkansas would've been ranked a lot higher by now. It's hard to understand why Auburn was #5, while a one-loss Arkansas was #11 after winning the head-to-head matchup.

#14 Boise State - Entering long-shot territory. Boise State does not play a ranked opponent this season. At 9-0, they deserve a BCS game, but do not deserve to be mentioned in the same breath as the national title game until they pick up some ranked non-conference opponents. If they win out, they guarantee themselves a spot in a BCS matchup after last night's big shakeup.

#15 Rutgers - Rutgers is the most complete team I've seen this season outside of Michigan/Ohio State, and they are completely underrated. If teams were not judged by preseason rankings and long-standing biases, Rutgers would definitely be in the top ten by now. On Thursday, Rutgers demonstrated how for ahead they are of the rest of the Big East, with a dominating second half defensive performance. Defense wins championships, and after falling behind 25-7 to Louisville, the Rutgers defense pitched a shutout, and allowed the offense to continue grinding out enough points for the eventual victory. Ray Rice seems to be almost a clone of Michael Hart, and the speedy, but undersized, Scarlet Knights defensive front should present a unique challenge to any team. I'd keep Rutgers out of the top 5 for now, but if they pull out a win against the Mountaineers, I think the Scarlet Knights should deserve serious consideration for a national championship appearance.

If it was up to me, the new rankings would look like this:

#1. Ohio State (11-0)
#2. Michigan (11-0)
.....
#3. Florida (9-1)
#4. Arkansas (9-1)
#5. Rutgers (9-0)
#6. USC (8-1)
#7. Notre Dame (9-1)
#8. LSU (8-2)
#9. Boise State (10-0)

If either Florida or Arkansas runs the table to the SEC championship, they should have be given the most consideration for a national title bid. Yesterday's mess improves the chances of a Ohio State/Michigan rematch for the national title if Armageddon is close. If it was up to me, I'd say Flordia, Arkansas, Rutgers, USC, and Notre Dame all still have a shot of making the national championship game, but we'll have to wait and see what the media decides.

Michigan - Indiana Preview

2006-11-11T10:07:00.000-05:00

Indiana is a team that Michigan cannot afford to take lightly, but given how close the last few games have ended up, I'm sure they are going to take this game seriously. I fully expect Michigan to be prepared to play for the full sixty minutes on both offense and defense today.

The chief concerns for Michigan should be stopping the passing attack and special teams of the Hoosiers. The passing attack is headed by freshman quarterback Kellen Lewis, who has restored respectability to the organization, and brought them within 1 win of bowl eligibility. Lewis has 13 passing touchdowns and 4 rushing touchdowns, and, as a mobile quarterback, he represents a decent preview for the Wolverine defense in preparation for Armageddon against supposed Heisman lock-in Troy Smith. Lewis' primary target will be James Hardy, who has 9 touchdowns on the season, and at 6'7" represents a very tough challenge for the Wolverine secondary. Finally, the third player to watch out for is Marcus Thigpen on special teams. Thigpen leads the division 1-A with 3 touchdowns on kickoff returns, and he is averaging an amazing 32.65 yards per kickoff return on the season.

Offensively, we should witness the best output for the Wolverines in quite a while. Mario Manningham looked comfortable last week in running routes, and drawing double coverage to open up the field, and he should be close to 100% this week. Having Manningham back in the lineup opens up everything for the Wolverines offense. Last week, Michigan's backs tore it up for over 300 yards rushing, and we should expect more of the same today, and Indiana is ranked 100th in the nation, giving up an average of 170 yards on the ground. I expect Hart and Minor to run for over 100 yards each again today. Henne should find Manningham streaking past the secondary at least once or twice for scores. Other than that, Henne will mix it up with screens are out routes to Breaston, mid-range passes to Arrington , and tight end options to Ecker, Massey or Butler, who should all be healthy for today's games.

With last week's 216 all purpose yard performance, Steve Breaston has officially re-emerged as another threat in the Wolverine's offensive toolbox. Breaston has played well for the majority of the second half of the season, although he took a huge step back in the cold/rainy/windy game against Northwestern. For the season, Breaston is now second in the big ten behind Thigpen, averaging 25.46 yards per kickoff return. Every Wolverine fan wants to see him break one more kickoff/punt return for a touchdown before the end of his career, and if he saves that for the winning score against Ohio State, I'm not going to complain, but I feel like we might see one today. For all the talk about Breaston being overrated or "worthless", he has put up some pretty impressive numbers over his career: Steve Breaston is the #3 Active Career Leader in Division 1-A All Purpose Yards, with 5146, behind only Garrot Wolfe and Ryne Robinson, who both play in much weaker conferences. He is also #2 overall in Punt Return Yards, with 1516, and #2 overall with 1857 kickoff return yards, #4 overall in punt return touchdowns with 3, and #7 overall in average yards per kickoff return, at 25.44. That’s about all you have to now about Steve Breaston to recognize his worthiness to the Wolverines offense.

Today's game could end up being another battle to the wire, but if the Wolverines come prepared to take care of business, it shouldn't be close.

Final Score: Michigan 38 - Indiana 13

The Sky is not falling!

2006-11-05T14:06:00.000-05:00

As Michael Rosenburg points out in his editorial, Michigan fans don't panic; Carr knows what he's doing, Michigan fans do not need to worry after yesterday's 34-26 scare against Ball State. Carr played with fire yesterday, taking out the starting defense in an effort to get them some rest early in the third quarter. Backup cornerbacks Sears and Stewart gave up big plays that allowed Ball State to close within 8 points late in the game. It wasn't until Ball State drove to Michigan's own 2 yard line with a chance to tie the game that Carr put the full starting defense back into the game. When push came to shove, Michigan's defense held strong, keeping the Cardinals out of the end zone for seven straight plays from first and goal.

When you take out the 9 points surrendered by the offense, and 14 surrendered by the backup defense, Ball State managed to put up only 3 points against the starting defense. Offensively, Michigan put up over 500 total yards, Breaston played well, and Hart and Minor both managed over 100 yards rushing. All of this happened without a single reception by go-to wide receiver Mario Manningham, who was healthy enough to run several routes throughout the game.

As USC demonstrated against Oregon state, and Ohio State demonstrated with a close 17-10 win over Illinois, every game in college football must be played, and no win is automatic. Carr didn't take the game against Ball State seriously enough - partly because he wanted to rest the starters, partly because he didn't want to blow out friend and former assistant coach Brady Hoke, and partly because the entire team spent too much time focusing on November 18th. He played with fire, but the important thing is that the team came away with the win.

I think we're going to see a much more focused Wolverines team on the road next week. Indiana has the ability to put a lot of points on the board quickly, and I'm pretty sure Carr isn't going to flirt with danger one week before the biggest game in college football history. Ball State made it close, but it wasn't against the players that will be on the field on November 18th. Michigan won the game - their 10-0, and they are still ranked #2 in both the AP and Coach's polls. Breath easy, and rest assured that Michigan will be ready for the Game of the Century.

Michigan Survives a close one

2006-11-04T16:15:00.000-05:00

The game shouldn't have been close. This is starting to sound like a familiar tune. In a game where Michigan put 507 yards of offense against one of lower ranked teams in the nation, the score shouldn't have been close..but it was. A few key plays allowed Ball State to stay in this game.

Early on, a Ball State punt took a Cardinals bounce over Breaston's head, and put Michigan in poor field position near their goal line. Mike Hart, who never fumbles, did. The fumble ended up into the end zone, giving Ball State two points, and good field position. On Michigan's ensuing drive, Ball State safety Erik Keys sat on Breaston's route, and picked it off for a touchdown, giving Ball State the early 9-7 lead.

From there, Michigan seemed to take control of the game, and sailed out 31-12 lead in the fourth quarter. Hart came out of the lineup and the team relaxed. From that point on, Michigan's offense managed but a field goal. Defensively, Michigan's secondary got burned three times for big gains, allowing Ball State into the red zone with a few minutes to play, and a chance to tie it with a two point conversion.

The defense stood its ground when it mattered the most. After stopping the Cardinals on three straight plays, they were called for roughing the passer, and had to face another first and goal. The defense didn't give them anything, and came away with the ball, and the game.

Positives to take away from the game:

Michigan's rushing defense was again dominant, although Ball State did manage to work their way into positive yardage, with 47 yards on the ground, an d 2.1 yards on the ground
Michigan's ground attack obliterated the opposition for 352 yards rushing on 7.7 yards per carry. Hart led the way with 154 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries, while Brandon Minor picked up 108 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries.
Steve Breaston responded to critics and proved his worth with a huge effort, leading the way with 7 receptions, 133 kickoff return yards, 50 receiving yards, 22 punt return yards, and 11 rushing yards, good for a total of 216 all purpose yards. This was Breaston's biggest game of the season.
Although Manningham did not have any balls thrown his way today, he ran his routes, looked quick, and consistently drew double coverage, which spread out the defense, and gave room for the rest of the offense to operate. Manningham looked pretty close to 100% to me - his wheels were definitely there. I think Carr just wanted to give him some game action to slowly work himself back into the game, while avoiding an injury any possibility of re-injury.

Overall, the last few games have been tighter than they should've been, but the important thing is that the Wolverines have walked away with the victory each time. I don't really know what to expect from Indiana on the road next week. They've knocked off Iowa and Michigan State, so they should be a fairly competitive team, but I don't understand how Minnesota managed to put up 63 points against them. I'll have to check out the highlights later.

Manningham a go!

2006-11-04T09:05:00.000-05:00

Woot! According to the Detroit News, sources say Manningham is a go today, and will be used sparingly. This is incredible good news for the Michigan Wolverines, who have struggled offensively for the three weeks Super Mario was out of the lineup. The trick is to not rush Mario into the lineup too quickly, but if he's playing against Ball State, I'm sure the doctors and coaches think he is ready. I'm glad to see he'll be eased back into the lineup against Ball State, because Armageddon is looming large, only fourteen days away now, and it may take a few plays to work out the rust.

I really don't know what to expect with the Michigan offense anymore. Last week, the weather was miserable, and the Wolverines played an incredibly boring offensive set in order to minimize mistakes. It got the job down, but it was an ugly win against inferior competition. Ball State has the worst ranked pass defense in all of Division-I football, giving up over 289 yards passing per game. They are also 93rd overall in rush defense, giving up another 160 YPG on the ground. Last week, I predicted that Michigan would put up 500 yards of total offense, and this week, I mean it. I know Carr doesn't like blowouts, so don't expect the Wolverines to pour it on like the Buckeyes like to do week after week. What I'd like to see is Michigan jump out to an early 28 point lead in the first half, so the outcome is no longer in question, and then rest their starters for the rest of the game.

I'd like to see Breaston respond to all the haters out there this week. By now, everybody has heard Kirk Herbstreit's comments: "Breaston can go back to whatever he's doing these days, if they could ever find a way to actually apply him in the offense. He's worthless in my mind, outside of returning a few punts." It's harsh hearing that about your favorite player, and it's completely inaccurate. Sure, Breaston has had his rough moments this season. Earlier this season, Breaston had trouble holding onto passes, but he seemed to have the kinks worked out, with big games against Penn State and Iowa. Last week, against Northwestern, was his worst performance, dropping two easy passes, and muffing a punt to the Wildcasts in good field position. In Breaston's defense, it was absolutely the worst playing conditions out there. It was 38 degrees, raining, with 24 mile an hour winds, and a windchill of 29 degrees. Have you ever tried to catch a football when your hands are frozen, the ball is slippery, and gusts of wind are blowing the ball three feet of course. Carr came to Breaston's defense on the muffed punt, stating that after reviewing the tape he thought Breaston was hit before the ball reached him.

So, what has Breaston done this season? For starters, he is leading the team with 38 receptions. I'm not sure if they keep track of this stat, but I'm sure he has more first downs than anyone else on the team besides Mike Hart. Breaston has 384 yards receiving, 227 yards on punt returns, 198 yards on kickoff returns, and 60 yards rushing, which is good for 869 all-purpose yards, second on the team, behind Hart. Breaston responds in big games. He holds the all-time record for punt return yards in the Big Ten, and he broke O.J Simpsons record with 315 all purpose yards in the Rose Bowl vs. Texas. Herbstreit is a OSU homer, and wouldn't it just be poetic justice if Breaston returned a punt for the game winning touchdown on November 18th?

As for today, I'm not going to ask for miracles out of the Wolverines offense. It'd be nice to see the defense hold yet another team to negative rushing yardage, another pick from Leon Hall, and a big day from Steve Breaston. It's senior's day today, and the last chance to see Steve Breaston, Leon Hall, Prescott Burgess, Jerome Jackson, David Harris, Lamar Woodley and Rondell Biggs at home. Unfortunately, the game got relegated to ESPN-U, so not too many people will get a chance to see the performance.

My Prediction: Wolverines up big early 2nd quarter, Manningham gets a touchdown before coming out the game, Breaston gets his first touchdown of the season (on a punt return), Hart gets his 10th TD, the defense gives up it's first TD in three games.

Final Score: 35-10.

New USA Today/Coaches Poll is out

2006-10-29T13:13:00.000-05:00

Michigan has finally secure the #2 ranking in the coaches poll, after USC was humbled by unranked Oregon State. USC, after struggling for four consecutive weeks against unranked opponents, finally fell from the #2 spot, down to #9. Ohio State is the unanimous first place selection, receiving all 63 first place votes, for 1575 total points. Michigan is not quite the unanimous second place choice. If Michigan received all 63 second place votes, they would've finished with 1512 points. Instead, they have 1500, meaning that either 12 voters have West Virginia ahead of Michigan in their ballots, or some clown ranked Michigan at #14 (or some combination thereof)

On the one hand, I can recognize why West Virginia could possibly be ranked higher, since they've blown out every opponent they've place this season. On the other hand, Michigan intentionally strays away from blowing out their opposition, and has had a much more difficult schedule then West Virginia thus far. Using the current coach's poll, Michigan has defeated:

#11 Notre Dame (Road)
#17 Wisconsin
#26 Iowa
#33 Penn State (Road)

West Virginia has defeated:

#35 Maryland

This will start to chance next weekend, as the Mountaineers face undefeated #5 Louisville on the road. West Virginia still has #34 Pittsburgh (road) and #15 Rutgers later this season. If West Virginia can win out their schedule, they make a much stronger case for holding onto that #3 seeding, but for now, it is difficult to justify voters ranking the Mountaineers ahead of the Wolverines.

Also of note:

Clemson drops from #11, down to #19
Arkensas moves up two spots to #12, ahead of LSU
#20 Nebraska falls entirely out of the rankings, with a loss to Oklahoma State
Missouri drops two spots to #25, after a loss to Oklahoma
#25 Georgia falls out of the rankings, after a 21-14 loss to Florida

ESPN Countdown to the Game of the Century

2006-10-28T12:04:00.000-04:00

The Game of the Century starts in 509+ hours. Three weeks to go, and the hype continues to grow. I saw a single ticket for $750, which is a bargain, considering the average price is $868. That's still about $700 more than I can afford :) The weather outside is brutal, so I'm almost kind of glad I didn't end up with that free ticket - 37 degrees 30-40 mile winds, rain, and a windchill of 29 degrees.

With the cold rain affecting passing accuracy and ability to catch the ball, Michigan should just line up Hart, Grady, Breaston, Minor, and Carlos Brown behind the line all game, and forget about playing a quarterback or wide receivers. How much fun would be to watch those five guys run runs, end-arounds, screens, and reverses all day long. Michigan could set the all-time collegiate rushing record - although I suppose that might be difficult after all eleven players on the defensive line.

Still no word on Arrington ten minutes before kickoff. I'm guessing he plays. Manningham should return next week, according to ESPN (Music to my ears)

Final prediction (Let's see if I get even one of these totals right)

Michigan 31 - Northwestern 6 (Touchdowns by Hart (x2), Breaston, Carlos Brown)

Hart plays the first half only - 168 yards on 24 carries (7 yards per carry, 2 touchdowns)

Breaston plays the full game - 9 receptions (new career high), 89 yards receiving, 59 punt return for a touchdown, 164 All Purpose Yards

Carlos Brown - 81 yards on 4 carries, 63 yard touchdown

Grady - 8 carries, 31 yards, 1 fumble

Henne - 14 for 18; 151 yards; first half only

Jason Forcier - 7 for 13; 91 yards, second half

Brandon Minor - 11 carries, 44 yards

Greg Matthews - 4 receptions (career high) 23 yards

Carson Butler - 4 receptions (career high) 31 yards

Michigan - 242 yards passing; 324 yards rushing: 566 yards total :)

Michigan defense - 43 yards rushing (64 yards to Tyrell Sutton, -31 yards on TFL, Woodley 3 sacks; Michigan Defense - 6 sacks total)

LOL - I doubt the game will be that fun to watch, but one can wish

Michigan - Northwestern Gameday Preview

2006-10-28T09:29:00.000-04:00

The weather did not look promising this morning, as it sounded like it was raining all night, but it's starting to clear up at least a little bit. The forecast was calling for rain, 30-40 mile an hour winds, 40 degrees with a windchill of 31-32 degrees. There is still a 40% chance of rain during the game, but it should be fairly light.

There is still no mention of a suspension to Adrian Arrington, so I'm going to assume that Carr is standing by his word and letting the legal system sort out the issue before proceeding. I still wouldn't be surprised if Arrington sees a one or two game suspension for drinking during the season.

The Wolverines will face this game without star wideout Mario Manningham, projected starter Antonio Bass, tightends Mike Massey and Tyler Ecker, and potentially, Adrian Arrington. The remaining receiving corps may end up being seniors WR Steve Breaston and WR Carl Tabb, and freshmen WR Greg Matthews and TE Carson Butler. Despite this fact, the Wolverines will be alright. With the inclement weather, Carr will be inclined to keep the ball on the ground anyways, and the 71st ranked Northwestern rushing defense (after facing a pretty weak schedule) will be powerless to stop the likes of Hart, Grady, Minor and Carlos Brown.

I expect the Wolverines to come out hard and try to gain a big lead early. I think the Wolverines will be hard-pressed to beat the 30 point spread. Once the team is up by 24 points, I expect the starting defense, and much of the starting offense to come out of the game, making the match a push from that point forward.

Hart for Heisman

Sort of rolls of the tongue doesn't it. The press is starting to pick up on this thread: Don't forget Michigan's Hart in Heisman race, Mike Lucas: Heisman could also be on the line when Michigan meets Ohio State, Is Hart Heisman Material?

At this point, it is still a relative longshot, as Troy Smith is the consensus favorite, but if the Wolverines pull out a victory in the Horseshoe, and Hart has a big game, in front of the potentially the largest national audience of all time, he could easily pull into the lead.

The knock against Hart is that he currently doesn't have Heisman-type numbers for a running back. His 4.82 yards per carry is nowhere near the league lead, and is outside the range of traditional Heisman numbers. Unfortunately for Hart, this is more of a product of the Michigan possession game as it is Hart's natural ability. Hart's 214 carries this season leads of all Division-I. His 4.82 yards per carry is still more than enough to get the first down, so Michigan relies on him to keep the ball in the offense's hands for so much of the game. As a result, Michigan leads the nation in time of possession. Hart is 7th in the nation with 129.0 yards per game, 1032 total yards rushing, and has eight touchdowns.

In the next three games, Hart has a chance to put up gaudy numbers and improve his chances for the Heisman against weak teams. Unfortunately for Hart, it's in the team's best interest to rest Hart as much as possible to avoid injury, which may limit his chance to put up those gaudy numbers.

What I'd like to see in Today's Game

Hart - Hart will likely have one half to put up big numbers. With Northwestern's weak defensive line, Hart should be able to bully his way through for over 6 yards per carry.

Hart's first half numbers:

24 carries, 168 yards, 7 YPC, 2 touchdowns

Breaston - Breaston has yet to reach the endzone this season, but he has had a productive season. With 9 touchdowns from Manningham, 8 touchdowns from Hart, 4 from Arrington, and 3 from Grady, the team hasn't really needed to rely on Breaston for scoring. Breaston primary role this season has been to pick up first downs on third and long, and provide a short option for Henne. Last week, Breaston provided a needed jumpstart to the Wolverine offense, with a huge 64 yard kickoff return right after Iowa tied it up at 3-3.

I'd love to see Breaston set career highs in receptions and receiving yards. Last week, Breaston tied a career high with 7 receptions, and could easily be counted on for more today. If Arrington is out, look for Breaston to have a huge game. There was grumbling about Breaston's inability to catch the ball early in the season, but in the past two games, he has been their most reliable receiver.

I'd love to see one more kickoff/punt return for a TD during Breaston's final 5 games of his collegiate career.

Brandon Minor - Freshman RB has not touched the ball since running for a 40-yard touchdown against Michigan State three weeks ago. Once Michigan opens up a big lead, expect to see plenty of Grady, Minor and Brown. I'd like to see what this kid does.

Carlos Brown - This kid can fly. I'd love to see Carlos take a few snaps, and break one to the outside.

Icing on the Cake - Last weekend, Ohio State pulled a trick out of the playbook, with a 38 pass from Ted Ginn, Jr. Ginn's career quarterback rating is now 374.6 (1/2 with a 38 yard touchdown) Michigan also has a WR quarterback option in Steve Breaston, who played quarterback in high school. Breaston has a career quarterback rating of 732.4 (1/1 with a 36 yard touchdown pass) How awesome would it be to see Michigan respond to OSU's WR pass for a touchdown with one of their own?

Defense - Michigan is on pace to set the modern-day collegiate record for fewest rushing yards per game given up per season. Tyrell Sutton is one of those shifty, elusive backs that has the potential to break one for a huge gain. Michigan has been a brick wall against the straight run this year, and I don't expect that to change today. The biggest weakness Michigan has shown is a vulnerability to the screen pass, and expect Northwestern to set up Sutton with several screens during the matchup today. The Wolverine defense has held their opposition to 1 touchdown in the past two games. I'd like to see Northwestern limited to fieldgoals today.

My Prediction - The spread says Michigan by 30.5. i expect the Wolverines to fall just short of that mark. Michigan 31 - Northwestern 6.

Sundin's 500th

2006-10-15T09:05:00.000-04:00

Mats Sundin accomplished a rare feet during the Maple Leafs 5-4 OT victory over Calgary last night. Sundin scored a short-handed, hat trick, game-winning goal in overtime that happened to be his 500th goal of his career. The OT winner gave Sundin sole possession of the record for most career OT Game-winners, with 15. The Leafs improve to 3-1-2, good for 4th in the Western Conference, and tied for 4th overall in the league. The Leafs have registered at least a point in each of their last five games, after losing the season opener against Ottawa 4-1. Video Highlights of the game, including Sundin's short-handed, hatrick game-winner, can be found on TSN's audio/video page.

The Curse of #2 Continues

2006-10-15T08:21:00.000-04:00

Week #1 - #2 Notre Dame struggles to a 14-10 victory over unranked Georgia Tech (Falls to #3)
Week #2 - #2 Texas Longhorns disappoint, dropping a 24-7 loss against #1 Ohio State (Falls to #8)
Week #3 - #2 Notre Dame is humiliated at home by #11 Michigan 47-21 (Falls to #12)
Week #4 - #2 Auburn handily defeats unranked Buffalo 38-7
Week #5 - #2 Auburn struggles against unranked S Carolina, relying on a dropped pass in the end zone to prevent the game from going into overtime, with a final score of 24-17.
Week #6 - #2 Auburn falls to unranked Arkansas 27-10 (Falls to #11)
Week #7 - #2 Florida falls to #11 Auburn 27-17

In 4 of the first 7 weeks, the #2 ranked team has lost. The #2 team has also struggled to pull out a victory in two of the three remaining games, as #2 Notre Dame pulled out a 14-10 victory against unranked Georgia Tech and #2 Auburn relied on a dropped pass in the end zone to pull out a 24-17 victory over South Carolina

With #4 Michigan's big win over Penn State, #2 Florida's loss at the hands of #11 Auburn, and #3 USC's third straight game where they struggled, there is going to be another shakeup in the college rankings. The first BCS rankings come out this evening. Somehow, Fox won the gig to announce the BCS rankings on the NFL Postgame show tonight.

Three different ESPN analysts agreed that Michigan should now be the consensus #2 team in the country. That probably will not happen, as the media is in love with USC, but Michigan should be a solid #3. There are some rumors that overrated USC will take the #1 seed in the preliminary BCS poll, because the computers think that USC's schedule has been tougher than Ohio State, which is a joke, because Ohio State has played Texas and Iowa on the road, while USC's toughest opponents have been Nebraska and Arkansas. The lopsided win against then-unseeded Arkansas is what has the computers excited, because the Razerbacks later went on to knock off #2 Auburn.

With losses to #2 Florida and #19 Missouri, the number of undefeated teams in the country is starting to dwindle. The seven remaining undefeated teams are (Rankings are from last week):

#1 Ohio State 7-0
#3 USC 6-0
#4 Michigan 7-0
#5 West Virginia 6-0
#7 Louisville 6-0
#20 Boise State 6-0
#24 Rutgers 6-0

#5 West Virginia and #7 Louisville eventually play each other on 11/02
#7 Louisville plays #24 Rutgers on 11/09
#5 West Virginia plays #24 Rutgers on 12/02
and, finally, in what Sports Illustrated is calling the GAME OF THE MILLENNIUM #1 Ohio State plays #4 (soon to be #2) Michigan on 11/18.

At most, we will end up with 4 undefeated teams in the country, and Boise State doesn't count, because they don't play anybody, and have no chance of moving higher than about #10 even if they run the table. I believe USC will lose during the Oregon/Cal/Notre Dame stretch towards the end of the schedule. It appears that there will be two undefeated teams at the end of the year: The winner of Ohio State/Michigan vs. the winner of West Virginia/Louisville/Rutgers. Louisville and Rutgers are both a step down from West Virginia, so the national championship game should end up being Michigan/Ohio State vs. West Virginia.

There are a couple tools in the AP poll that continue to give their first place votes to #6 West Virginia. The first place vote breakdown is 63 first place votes to #1 Ohio State and 2 first place votes to #6 West Virginia. There are rumors that, even though West Virginia will be in the top 5 in the AP Poll this week, the BCS computers have them ranked as low as #26, due to a very mediocre strength of schedule component. It's crazy that computers ultimately decide who plays in the national title game at the end of the year.

My Top Ten

#1. Ohio State
#2. Michigan
#3. West Virginia
#4. Texas
#5. USC
#6. Louisville
#7. Auburn
#8. Tennessee
#9. Florida
#10. Cal
#11. Notre Dame

I refuse to give any respect to USC, because they almost lost to three straight unranked opponents in Washington, Washington State, and Arizona State. They look very mediocre, and Cal should handle them easily. I begrudgingly give the #3 ranking to West Virginia, but don't really feel they deserve based on the schedule they've played so far. The team has looked impressive, though. To me, Michigan and Ohio State are far and away the top two teams in the country.

"That's as good a team as there is in the country right now," said Penn State coach Joe Paterno, after losing 17-10 to Michigan, almost in awe. "They played better than we did, especially in their offensive line." Penn State has played both Ohio State and Michigan, so Paterno is essentially saying that Michigan is as good as Ohio State. The Michigan defensive line obliterated Penn State yesterday, holding them to negative rushing yardage, sacking the quarterback seven times, and knocking two of Penn States quarterbacks out of the game. The Michigan rushing defense is now giving up an average of 32 yards a game, and a laughable 1.37 yards per carry :) Defense wins championships.

Michigan Wolveines will win big

2006-10-14T12:28:00.001-04:00

Tonight's game has me as nervous as I've felt all year. The student paper, The Michigan Daily, didn't make me feel any more comfortable by predicting a 20-17 win by Penn State.

Penn State is a better team than their 4-2 record indicates. Their two losses came against Notre Dame and Ohio State. They have the 15th best defense in the nation, allowing only 79.5 yards per game.

There is a revenge factor involved - Last season, Penn State came into Michigan with a 6-0 record, and walked off the field one second away from a holding on to their perfect record, after Manningham made that memorable catch.

The game is on the road, at night, in one of the loudest stadiums in the country.

Enough about the negativity. The lesson to take here is that Penn State is an opponent worthy of respect.

The two common opponents Michigan and Penn State have shared are Minnesota and Notre Dame. Michigan blew away Notre Dame, while Penn State was blown away by Notre Dame. Michigan easily handled Minnesota, while Penn State needed a very questionable pass interference call on 4th down in overtime against the Golden Gophers. order to eak out a victory.

Penn State has comparable team stats in several categories - Rush Defense, Rush Offense, Passing Offense, Passing Defense, Points Scored, etc, but in every case, Michigan is superior.

Penn State has a strong rushing defense, giving up 2.52 yards per carry, but Michigan has a superior offensive line, averaging 4.52 yards per carry. Michigan will rely on Mike Hart to move the ball. If Michigan can win the battle for yards on the line, it will make things a lot easier.

The key to this game will be the Michigan defense. Running back Tony Hart has put up big numbers so far this season, but he has not faced the number one rush defense in the country. The Michigan defensive line will hold serve, forcing Morelli to pass the ball. Henne is a far superior quarterback to Anthony Morelli. Morelli has thrown 6 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, with a 56% completion rate, compared to Henne at 13 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, and a 62% completion rate. Michigan's defensive line will hurry up Morelli all game long, and expect the secondary to eat his inaccurate passes for lunch. Look for 2-3 interceptions from Burgess, Hall and company to ultimately decide the game.

Breaston, Mundy and Henne are playing in their home state for the first time in his career. With Manningham out of the lineup, Breaston will step up in his leadership role and play his biggest game of the season. Look for several big returns to give the Wolverines good field position, and watch #15 move the chains all game long with short passing routes. Breaston has been somewhat inconsistent this year, but he always steps up in important games. Look for Breaston to pick up 200+ all purpose yards.

On paper, a Manningham-less Wolverine lineup looks like it might have some difficulty against Penn State on the road, but this game shouldn't even be close. Michigan wins the game with a superior quarterback, a superior defensive line, and a superior offensive line.

Final Score: Michigan 31 - Penn State 17

Michigan Wolveines will win big

2006-10-14T12:28:00.000-04:00

Breaston's Turn to Lead the Team

2006-10-11T22:32:00.000-04:00

I recently saw a copy of the Ann Arbor News on the newsstand with Steve Breaston on the cover story, entitled "Poetry in Motion". I didn't have any money on me at the time, so I couldn't buy it, and it was gone when I went to look for it later that day. I wish I could've purchased the issue, because Breaston is by far my favorite college football player. Here's a link to the online version.

So far this season, we haven't as much from Breaston as you might expect. Two seasons ago, Breaston worked under the shadow of Braylon Edwards, and last season under the shadow of Jason Avant. This was supposed to be the year of Steve Breaston. Sophomore receiving sensation Mario Manningham changed all of that rather quickly, jumping onto the national scene with a three touchdown performance before a national audience in the game versus Notre Dame. Before injuring his knee on a non-contact playing during the Michigan State game, Manningham caught 8 touchdown passes over the a four game stretch, taking over the national lead in touchdown receptions, with nine in six games. Aside from Manningham, fellow sophomore Adrian Arrington has also begun to make a name for himself with three touchdown catches in the past two games. Together, the emergence of Manningham as a deep threat and Arrington as a mid-range threat has allowed Breaston to focus on short-yardage routes. Breaston has become a machine at moving the chains. Short 2 and 3 yard routes become ten to five yard plays as Breaston makes breaking tackles look as easy as slicing butter with a hot knife.

I've sort of been waiting for Breaston to reach his true potential over the past 2+ seasons. His first huge performance was against Texas in the Rose Bowl, where he shattered O.J. Simpson's Rose Bowl record, with 315 All Purpose Yards. Michigan ultimately lost that game 38-37, when the Longhorns kicked the winning field goal as time expired, but Breaston's amazing performance left a lasting impression. Time after time during Breaston's first couple seasons with Michigan, he made plays that left your jaw on the floor. He is already the alltime leader in both kickoff returns and punt returns, and is only the second big ten player to register 1,000 career yards in kickoff returns, punt returns and receiving yards. He doesn't have a lot left to prove at the college level.

Yet, after witnessing everything that Breaston can offer, Michigan fans are left wanting more. It looks like now is the time for Michigan fans to discover what Breaston is truly capable. When asked for comment concerning the injury to Manningham, an almost giddy Lloyd Carr would only state that the team received great news and Manningham would miss at least one game. Citing sources close to the team, the Detroit Free Press reported that Manningham underwent arthroscopic surgery to repair a partially torn meniscus. Reports from ESPN conclude that Manningham will likely be gone for two to six weeks. Michigan has two huge games in the next two weekends before a relatively easy stretch going into the Ohio State matchup on November 18th. Two opponents stand in the way of an undefeated Wolverine team marching into Columbus for a chance to take the #1 ranking from OSU: Penn State and Iowa.

This upcoming evening matchup on the road at Penn State is the perfect opportunity for Breaston to step up and play the game of his life. Breaston is a Pennsylvania native, and this will be his first game in his home state during his four year college football career. Breaston states "It's a game I've been looking forward to. I'm excited about it - I'm not going to lie".

In order to manage the clock and maintain possession of the football, Michigan is going to rely on their running game. Look for Mike Hart to have a career day. In order for Hart to have room to operate though, the Michigan passing game must remain intact. The combination of a lethal short game with Mike Hart and a lethal long threat in Manningham has been giving the opposition fits all season long, and that type of balanced offensive attack must continue over the next two weeks in order for the Wolverines to be successful.

This game isn't going to be a cakewalk. Penn State isn't the same team that was one second away from a perfect season, but they are more than capable, and must be chomping at the bit in order avenge the last second loss to the Wolverines last season. The game is on the road, and at night. Vegas seems to agree with me that it will be a tough game, listing Michigan as a 6.5 point favorite.

Last season, it was Mario Manningham that provided the heroics against Penn State. A pass to Steve Breaston 3 yards outside of the endzone was dropped, leaving two seconds on the clock, and time for one last play. Henne connected with freshman Manningham, showing a flash of the brilliance displayed this season. The win over Penn State was a lone bright spot in an otherwise forgettable season for the Michigan Wolverines. This season, there will be no last second heroics from Mario Mannigham to salvage the game. This time, it's up to Steve Breaston.

Early last season, after the graduation of Braylon Edwards, Michigan started the year by trying to make Breaston the team's deep threat. Henne threw at least 4-5 long 50-60 yard passes to Breaston the end zone. Steve had no problem blowing by the defenders, and getting close to the ball, but he never really appeared comfortable making the catch. The plan was eventually abandoned. At the time, Breaston never quite appeared comfortable making the long, running over-the-shoulder catch.

The time has come to once again make Breaston the go-to guy for the next two games. For Michigan, the key will begetting the ball in Breaston's hands. He makes people stand up out of their seats almost every time he touches the ball. Last season, Michigan resorted to many trick plays to get the ball in Breaston's hands, including having him line up at quarterback for a rush, double-reverses, screen passes, and laterals with three receivers lined up on the same side for blocking.

There is no doubt that Breaston has the ability to make the big places, and change the complexion of a game. So far this season, Breaston has been effective, if somewhat unspectacular, but he has not yet reached the end zone. With all the hype surrounding Mario Manningham and Mike Hart, Breaston has averaged 103.5 All Purpose Yards per game, putting him in the upper echelon of Division I, at 67th in the nation. His 23 receptions put him in 15th in the big ten. Two weeks ago, against Wisconsin, Breaston had a career high 116 punt return yards on 9 touches. The Wolverines had excellent starting field position all night long, starting on average at their own 41 yard line.

In addition to Steve Breaston, the Michigan receiving corps will include Adrian Arrington, Carl Tabb, and freshman Greg Matthews. As the lone starting senior receiver, the responsibility will lie on Breaston's shoulders to help ensure that the Michigan offense puts points on the boards and controls the flow of the game. The biggest area where Breaston can make a difference is in the return game. Over his career, Breaston has 3 punt returns for a touchdown, and 1 kickoff return for a touchdown. In a single game against Texas, he returned 6 kickoffs for 221 yards. So far this season, Breaston has returned only 6 kickoffs all season long, for a total of 114 yards. A large part of that is that Michigan's defense has been so tough this season, that they really haven't had to face very many kickoffs. On top of that, opposing teams seem to do whatever they can to keep the ball out of his hands on the kickoff and punt returns. In addition, it appears that Breaston has been a little more conservative this season. In previous seasons, Breaston was fearless, refusing to call for the fair catch when there almost no chance he would avoid the initial tackle. Injuries have hampered him in the past, so I'm glad he is taking this approach, but he is so quick off that first move that I think he can stand to be a little more aggressive on fielding kickoffs. Breaston himself realizes that his return game isn't quite where he wants it to be yet "It's really been kicking me so far. In the game, I try to get into that rhythm (So far) I basically haven't"

Penn State's rush defense is ranked 15th in the nation, giving up only 79.5 yards per game, or 2.52 yards per carry. Michigan is going to try running the ball, but the yards will not come that easy. For comparison, the toughest rush defense they've faced so far has been Wisconsin, ranked 46th at 118.6 yards per game. Since their deep threat in Manningham is gone, Michigan will have a tougher time stretching out the opposing defense, allowing Penn State to close up on defense. Penn State's passing defense is much more average, giving up 205.8 yards per game, ranked 75th in the nation. The speed of Breaston will be a key factor in keeping the Penn State defense off-balance. Expect Breaston to have a big return game, pumped up by the chance to play in front of family and friends in his home state.

For much of the past two seasons, Breaston has been hampered by injuries. A sprained hand kept him from playing to the best of his abilities. Highlights from last season include the first half from the Indiana game last year, where Breaston picked up 201 all purpose yards and a touchdown in the first half alone, before Michigan brought out the second stringers. Breaston also had another big bowl game against Nebraska, where he registered 226 all purpose yards.

I've always wondered whether or not Breaston could become an effective NFL player. He has been compared to Anthony Carter, who had a prolific career in the NFL. Breaston is undersized, and his great running speed will be less effective at the NFL level. To his credit, Breaston is very elusive, excelling at losing would-be sure tackles, and has excellent bursting ability, allowing him to change direction and reverse the field at full speed. I took a look at a few NFL draft previews, and it appears that scouts see the same potential in Breaston that we as Wolverine fans have witnessed for years. Fox Sports has Breaston listed as a late first round pick, at number 27, with a chance to go up if he has a breakout season. So far, the breakout season hasn't happened, but he has been steady and effective.

I'd like to see Michigan make an effort to get the ball into Breaston's hands as often as possible over the next few weeks - A few screen passes, having him take a snap or two at quarterback, perhaps a double-reverse with Hart. Hopefully, Henne can come up with some passes that find Breaston on the move in the secondary, because once he gets into that open field with the ball, he has the ability to take it to the house. Breaston is one of the most dangerous open field players in the business, so if you get the ball into his hands, good things will happen.

The Curse of the #2 Ranking

2006-10-09T20:36:00.000-04:00

Curse of the #2 ranking:

Week #1 - #2 Notre Dame struggles to a 14-10 victory over unranked Georgia Tech (Falls to #3)

Week #2 - #2 Texas Longhorns disappoint, dropping a 24-7 loss against #1 Ohio State (Falls to #8)

Week #3 - #2 Notre Dame is humiliated at home by #11 Michigan 47-21 (Falls to #12)

Week #4 - #2 Auburn handily defeats unranked Buffalo 38-7

Week #5 - #2 Auburn struggles against unranked S Carolina, relying on a dropped pass in the end zone to prevent the game from going into overtime.

Week #6 - #2 Auburn falls to unranked Arkansas 27-10 (Falls to #11)

---
In the first six weeks, the #2 team has lost three times, fallen out of the #2 spot 4 times, and struggled in five of the six games. The schedule dictates that the #2 ranked team will continue to struggle.

How this will all end up:

#2 Florida must face consecutive #11 Auburn on the road and #16 Georgia. There is a very good chance the Gators will simply be the next in line of #2 teams failing to live up to expectations.

Once #2 Florida drops out of contention, the heir to the throne will be #3 USC. USC is destined to lose in week nine (#18 Oregon), week ten (#10 California), or week eleven (#9 Notre Dame). That is, if USC can even hang around that long. USC was very lucky to escape from Washington State and Washington with an undefeated record intact, and they look very ordinary. I can't fully understand why this team is still ranked so high.

After USC drops, the heir to the throne will be #4 Michigan. Michigan will likely inherit the #2 spot in week #9, 10 or 11, during a tough three game stretch of #87 Northwestern, #104 Ball State and #79 Indiana (I had to resort to CBS Sportsline to pull these rankings)

All of the above sets up the granddaddy of all games on week #12 (12-0 #1 Ohio State vs. 12-0 #2 Michigan) This will be the third time in history that both teams were undefeated when facing each other. The first time was 1973, but I couldn't find a reference online to the second meeting, and will be the true national championship, as I've been contending all along. This will be the second time that a #1 vs. #2 team face off in the same season.

It will be up to the Wolverines to defend the #2 spot. After three weeks defending the spot against cannon fodder (re: Northwestern, Ball State, Indiana), Michigan will have no problem defending the spot a fourth time and becoming the first #2 team to actually move up in the rankings all season.

After the hard-fought Michigan/Ohio State matchup, the pollsters are still not convinced that West Virginia is a better team than the Ohio State Buckeyes, but reluctantly give untested West Virginia the undeserved #2 spot. The Mountaineers quite naturally fit into the role of the underachieving #2 team, becoming the sixth #2 ranked team to lose, leaving Michigan and Boise State as the two undefeated teams in the country.

Call for a National Title 4 Team Playoff

2006-10-08T18:06:00.000-04:00

There are (Rankings are from 10/1/2006, and will change later today, due to the Auburn loss)

#1. Ohio State (6-0) Big Ten
#3. USC (5-0) Pac 10
#4. West Virginia
#5. Florida (6-0) SEC
#6. Michigan (6-0) Big Ten
#8. Louisville (5-0) Big East
...
#20. Boise State (6-0) WAC
#23. Missouri (6-0) Big Twelve
#24. Rutgers (5-0) Big East

From this list, we have 7 legitimate national title contenders, and a few that could crack the top ten with an undefeated season. My question is this: "How do you decide who gets to play in the national title game if there are several undefeated teams remaining at the end of the season?"

Theoretically, we could see the following teams remain undefeated:

#1. The winner of Michigan vs. Ohio State
#2. Florida
#3. USC
#4. The winner of Louisville vs. West Virginia

Theoretically, we could end up with 4 undefeated teams in contention for the national title, with only two invites. To me, this makes the calls for a four team national title playoff a great idea.

Realistically, I don't think it will play out like this. #1 Ohio State has a cakewalk schedule from now until the November 18th matchup versus the Wolverines. Michigan has two moderately tough challenges remaining, with a night road game against Penn State, and a home matchup versus #19 Iowa. Michigan has not been seriously challenged yet this season, and they should make it through these games without a serious threat. If things play out as they should, Michigan and Ohio State will square off as undefeated opponents for only the third time in history. The winner of this matchup should automatically qualify for the National Title.

Florida easily survived a tough matchup against #9 LSU, solidifying their top five ranking this week. It doesn't get any easier for the Gators, as they play on the road vs. (previously) #2 Auburn next weekend, followed by #10 Georgia. Florida closes out the season against in-state rival #17 Florida State. The Gators have an incredibly tough schedule ahead of them, but if they manage to win out, they will seriously need to be considered for the national title.

USC has struggled in consecutive weeks against unranked opponents Washington and Washington State, with both games going down to the wire. USC appears to be over-rated. If it were up to me, USC would fall to #5 in this week's polls, behind West Virginia, Florida and Michigan. With the way the Trojans have played the past two weeks, I have serious doubts about their ability to get through this three week stretch in November: #11 Oregon, #16 California, #12 Notre Dame. All three games are at home, but USC appears to be very ordinary, and should fall out of contention during this stretch.

Of the serious national title contenders, West Virginia and Louisville have the weakest schedules. One of these teams will fall in the head-to-head matchup in Louisville on 11/02/2006. I suppose Rutgers could do everyone a favor and play spoiler against one of these two teams, but every indication is that one of West Virginia and Louisville will remain undefeated.

It appears to me that there will be 3 undefeated teams at the end of the season

#1. Winner of Michigan/Ohio State
#2. Florida
#3. Winner of West Virginia/Louisville

How do you decide which team gets left out of the National Championship game? Based on strength of schedule alone, I feel that it is unfair to exclude either Michigan/Ohio State or Florida, so West Virginia/Louisville would be the odd man out. It bothers me that West Virginia is ahead of both Michigan and Florida in the polls right now though. Wins over Iowa and then #1 Ohio State should be enough to bump Michigan ahead of West Virginia in the final week of the polls, and if Florida can knock off LSU, Auburn, Georgia, and Florida State, it should be enough to move into the #2 spot. It all comes down to a subjective judgment call though.

If one of West Virginia, Florida or Michigan put together undefeated seasons, but do not get invited to the National Title game, it would be a shame. A four team playoff would ensure that any team that played well enough for national title consideration would get their shot. Sure, you would be forced to make a decision between who gets chosen for the #4 seed, and who gets left out at #5, but at least you wouldn't end up leaving an undefeated #3 team out of national title contention.

Michigan now ranked #6 (AP)

2006-09-17T15:17:00.000-04:00

Earlier today, I wrote my first blog post in months, entitled Instant National Title Contenders. In my posting, I contended that Michigan became instant national title contenders with their 47-21 win over Notre Dame yesterday. My guess is that Michigan and Ohio State will both be 11-0 when they meet for the final game of the season, on November 18th. That game will decide which of those two teams will make an appearance in the national title game in January.

In my post from earlier today, I said:

If it was up to me, Michigan would move ahead of #2 Notre Dame, #9 Florida State, #6 LSU, #7 Florida, #8 Texas and #10 Georgia when they release today's national rankings. That would put Michigan at #5.

My wish almost came true. #2 Notre Dame fell to #12, #9 Florida State fell to #18, #6 LSU fell to #10. Michigan also passed Texas, who moved up to #7 from #8, and Georgia, who moved up from #10 to #9.

I got greedy, hoping Michigan would jump ahead of Florida, who moved up from #7 to #5, after pulling out a tough 21-20 win against #13 Tennessee.

Michigan is now ranked #6

#1. Ohio State
#2. Auburn
#3. USC
#4. West Virginia
#5. Florida
#6. Michigan
#7. Texas
#8. Louisville
#9. Georgia
#10. LSU

My guess is USC is going to lose between now and November, as they have a very tough schedule, with 4 ranked opponents, and they lost two Heisman candidates in Reggie Bush and Matt Leinart. Florida and Auburn play each other on October 14th, so one of those teams will fall. Florida also has to play #9 Georgia, #10 LSU, and #18 Florida State, so there is a good chance they will lost at least one. Auburn has a matchup against #9 Georgia on November 25th. West Virginia has only one tough matchup, against #8 Louisville, so they could easily run the table.

If I had to guess, going into the Ohio State/Michigan on November matchup, the rankings should look like this:

#1. Ohio State (11-0)
#2. Auburn (11-0)
#3. Michigan (11-0)
#4. West Virginia (10-0)
....the rest

- I would put Michigan ahead of West Virginia if they both go undefeated up to that point, based on strength of schedule. At that point, a win over Ohio State would all but guarantee that Michigan finishes in the top 2, and heads to the national championship game. There is a lot of football between then and now, and there will undoubtedly be some upsets and surprises. For instance, Ohio State has a road matchup in Iowa in two weeks. It is always difficult to win in Iowa. Two years ago, Michigan snapped Iowa's home winning streak at an amazing 22 games. So far this season, Iowa hasn't looked very impressive, but they should turn things around by that time in order to put up a fight against the Buckeyes.

(Source: http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/college/4193416.html)

Instant National Title Contenders

2006-09-17T12:31:00.000-04:00

People really didn't know what to expect from the Wolverines this season. After a terribly disappointing 7-5 season last year, and the loss of their go-to receiver, Jason Avant, to graduation, the national media didn't really know where to place the Wolverines in the national rankings. Michigan answered their critics on Saturday, with a convincing 47-21 throttling of the then #2 ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish. The Wolverines must now be considered serious national title contenders. Their schedule is not easy, but the road win against Notre Dame was the second toughest game of their schedule, and they pulled out a win with ease.

Michigan has a relatively tough five game stretch coming up, at home against #27 Wisconsin, on the road in Minnesota, at home against rival Michigan State, on the road against #25 Penn State, and finally a home matchup against #16 Iowa. None of these opponents should be taken lightly, but this Michigan lineup looks more prepared than any in recent history. After yesterday's performance, one should expect the Wolverines to emerge through this five games stretch unscathed, with an unblemished 8-0 record.

After that string of games, Michigan can relax a little bit for three weeks against Northwestern, Ball State and Indiana. At that point, if all goes according to plan, Michigan will be 11-0, and conceivably ranked in the top three in the national rankings. (If it was up to me, Michigan would move ahead of #2 Notre Dame, #9 Florida State, #6 LSU, #7 Florida, #8 Texas and #10 Georgia when they release today's national rankings. That would put Michigan at #5) Conceivably, if Michigan and Ohio State both run the tables, we could witness the second #1 vs #2 matchup of the season. Unfortunately, that would likely require losses by Auburn, USC and West Virginia, which is a lot to ask for. Auburn has a very tough schedule ahead of them, and may slip up against Florida or Georgia. USC has 4 ranked opponents ahead on their schedule, and the losses of both Leinart and Bush really hurt their chances of maintaining an undefeated record, but West Virginia has a relatively easy schedule, and will likely remain undefeated. My prediction is that we will see the rankings as #1 Ohio State, #2 West Virginia, and #3 Michigan going into the Michigan/Ohio State matchup.

With yesterday's performance, Michigan became instant national title contenders. By holding Notre Dame to 4 yards rushing, they now have the #1 rush defense in the country, giving up just 20.7 rushing YPG, and are ranked 9th overall on defense. Throw in the 2nd ranked turnover margin, 5th ranked total sacks, 18th rushing offense, and 4th overall in time of possession, and this team is in pretty select company. Manningham is starting to look every bit as impressive as Braylon Edwards did two years ago, and I'd be surprised if Michael Hart doesn't receive at least a little consideration for the Heisman by the end of the season.

Coach Lloyd Carr is finally answering his critics. This team is well coached, and appears better prepared than they have in years. New defensive coordinator Ron English has opposing quarterbacks shaking in their boots. Heisman candidate Brady Quinn was hit more than ten times in yesterday's matchup, resulting in three interceptions.

I'm still waiting for Breaston to become the breakout player that he's capable of. He is the teams leading receiver with 12 receptions, and he continues to make breaking tackles look effortless, but he has a whole lot more potential. Breaston continues to drop a few passes per game. He made a couple amazing receptions in the Notre Dame matchup, but dropped two easily catchable balls, including one that would've resulted in a touchdown. Breaston's opportunities have been fairly limited in his prime roll - as kickoff/punt returner. Through the first three games, Breaston has returned 3 kickoffs for 60 yards (20.0 avg) and 8 punts for 85 yards (10.6 avg). Breaston is averaging 106 all purpose yards per game, which is good for 67th in the nation. Not bad at all, considering the fact that teams are intentionally doing everything they can to keep the ball out of Breaston's hands on kickoff/punt returns. (Michael Hart, by the way, is ranked 28th nationally with 133.0 All Purpose Yards per game) I consider Ted Ginn, Jr, perhaps the nation's most lethal offensive threat, to be the measuring stick for Breaston, which is perhaps a bit unfair as a comparison, but none-the-less, one that I make. Ginn, Jr is ranked 44th nationally with 119.0 All Purpose Yards per game, but has broken out with 6 touchdowns this season, while Breaston has so far failed to reach the end zone.

Overall, Wolverine fans have a heck of a lot to be excited about for the upcoming season. They won their first game on the road for the first time since 1999, and they managed to do it in decisive fashion.

John Ferguson, Jr. makes a big splash on draft day

2006-06-25T19:12:00.000-04:00

News Items

#1. Toronto Maple Leafs trade top goaltending prospect Tuukka Rask to the Boston Bruins for goaltender and former Calder Trophy winner Andrew Raycroft

#2. Leafs draft Jiri Tlusty with the 13th overall pick

#3. Leafs draft Kulemin with the 44th overall pick in the second round.

I really don't know whether to rejoice or cry over the Tuukka Rask/Andrew Raycroft deal. To me, Rask was the brightest star for the future of the Toronto Maple Leafs. Many Leafs fans figured that one of Rask or Pogge was expendable, but projecting goalies at such a young age is a tricky business. Rask definitely had more upside, and I had him penciled in as the best hope for a Leaf's cup in the next ten years

Picking up Raycroft is gutsy move by JFJ. It's really a make-or-break move for John Ferguson, Jr. My cynical side thinks he made the move to save his own hide. If the Leafs don't perform well next season, he's gone, so he might as well mortgage the future in hopes of icing a team that at least squeaks into the playoffs next season. But, if Raycroft busts and continues his lousy play at the start of the next season, JFJ could be gone within the first 25 games of next season.

To JFJ's credit, there were many reasons that Raycroft may have had an off-year last season. Raycroft's agent convinced him to hold out at the beginning of last season. He didn't play much in the lockout the season before. Boston got off to a rough start, and a goalie's psyche can easily be rattled. Raycroft is only two years removed from an amazing Calder trophy-winning campaign, and sources have said that he really wanted to play for the Leafs. A betting man would wager that Raycroft trains hard over the summer, and comes back hungry to show that he can return to the form displayed during his rookie campaign.

At this point, The Leafs have already committed to Raycroft. They might as well commit him to a long-year contract now before waiting until his asking price rises again with a return to form next season. This is a bet the farm move by JFJ, and he might as well go all in. I'm hoping Raycroft is open to a 4 year contract in the 2 - 2.4 million dollar range, which would put the Leafs in a solid financial situation, allowing them to lock in a legitimate #1 goalie at the lower end of the salary spectrum for almost half a decade.

The fact that the Leafs have a potential legitimate #1 goalie for next season makes me happy in one other sense. We are nearing the end of the Mats Sundin's career, and this move should signal to Sundin that the Leafs organization are committed to icing a competitive roster next season. With a low-cost #1 goalie, the Leafs should be able to sign McCabe, a #3 D-man (McKee, F. Kaberle, Kubina), and a legitimate first line winger or two (Elias, Samsonov) for Sundin.

I'm stoked that the Leafs managed to nab Jiri Tlusty and Kulemin in the first and second rounds. Tlusty is really the top guy I was hoping the Leafs would be able to secure with the 13th overall pick, and I was ecstatic to hear that they got him. I consider both picks to be absolute steals. Both players are hard-nosed, skilled scoring forwards that may be ready to step right in and contribute for the Leafs next season. Kulemin played on a line with Malkin and Ovechkin during the World Championships to give you an idea of the caliber of player the Leafs managed to pick up. Kulemin's stock rose quite a bit this season.

All-in-all, a good day for the Leaf's organization. My heart initially dropped to the floor when I read that Rask was. Upon reflection, I've accepted the trade for Raycroft as a calculated risk that the Leaf's GM took in the best interest of the future of this organization. If Raycroft returns to form next season, and the Leafs manage to pick up a few key free agents, Sundin may have one last hope for a Stanley Cup with the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Further Musings of a Casual World Cup Fan

2006-06-25T16:41:00.000-04:00

Wow, the refs really let the Netherlands/Portugal match get out of hand. 16 yellow cards were called, which ties a World Cup record. The 4 red cards handed out set a new World Cup record. Players frustrations boiled over, and there was plenty of post-whistle pushing and shoving, which As a relatively new fan to soccer, I was impressed with the level of friendly play and sportsmanship displayed earlier in the World Cup, but there has been none of that displayed since the knockout round begun.

The winning goal by scored by Beckham was a thing of beauty. Beckham admitted that he didn't play very well today. After scoring the goal, Beckham was seen throwing up on the field, so he obviously wasn't feeling his best. But, when the game was on the line, Beckham delivered a perfect bending and dipping strike over the wall, catching the bottom right corner of the net.

I was very impressed with the play of Rooney in the second half of England's 1-0 win over Ecuador. Rooney had at least 4 or 5 impressive runs, and was the most the dangerous offensive threat I've seen so far in the World Cup. He was unlucky to not come away with at least an assist in the match.

It's very unfortunate for Portugal that they will be forced to play in the quarterfinals against England without their star player, Deco. It's rather unclear to me why he was kicked out of the game. The Netherlands player was upset because he accused Deco of wasting time by picking up the ball. He ran up, grabbed Deco by the arm, spun him around, and threw him on the ground. And, yet, somehow, Deco picked up his second yellow card and got kicked out of the game.

The World Cup from the eyes of a casual fan

2006-06-24T11:39:00.000-04:00

It looks like Germany has this one wrapped up. They're up 2-0 at the half, they've dominated the scoring opportunities, and the ref just sent Swedish player Teddy Lucic off on two weak yellow cards. I couldn't believe they kicked a player out of the game for sticking his hand out to slow down a player at mid-field. I recognize that a foul should have been called, but that was a terrible reason to kick a player out of a playoff match. If Sweden can score one early in the second half, things will get interesting. Otherwise, it's hard to stay excited. It's always nice to see the host country stay alive in the knockout round, as hometown fans add an air of excitement to any match.

It's too bad that so many of these games are played during the workday. I've taped a couple games, and watched them when I get home from work, but it's tough to get through the day without accidentally overhearing how the game went.

I was hoping for a good result from the US soccer team. Given how high they were ranked
at the beginning of the tournament, winning a couple games in the knockout stage would've given a chance for the sport to gain some media exposure here. After the 3-0 loss to the Czechs, the US played well enough against Italy to keep their hopes alive, but they couldn't get the job done against Ghana.

I'm looking forward to the Argentina-Mexico game this afternoon. Outside of that, the Brazil-Ghana and Italy-Australia games intrigue me the most.

The Ketchup is flowing

2006-05-27T12:58:00.000-04:00

After scoring just 2 goals in the first eight periods of play against Dwayne Roloson of the Edmonton Oilers, the Anaheim Mighty Ducks have put the puck in the net 9 times in the last four. The figurative ketchup bottle that Selanne alluded to after the 5-4 loss in game #3 is open and oozing all over the place. Now that the Ducks have refound their scoring touch and their confidence, this could still end up becoming an interesting series. They've already won 6 games in a row once during these playoffs, so who's to say they can't win three more in a row.

History is against the Ducks, with only the 1942 Maple Leafs and 1975 New York Islanders coming back after being down 3-0 in a best of seven series. The Ducks have the monkey off their backs. They've found out how to score, and they managed to win their first game in Edmonton since 1999, snapping a 13-game losing streak. In order to advance, the Ducks need to win game five at home, game six on the road in Edmonton, and game seven back at home. As long as the ketchup keeps flowing, I think the Ducks still have a chance.

Will the Ducks Make it a Series?

2006-05-25T17:46:00.000-04:00

"Our goal scoring this year has been like a ketchup bottle," Teemu Selanne said. "It's hard to get it out sometimes but when it comes, it's going to come a lot. I feel like the momentum is on our side right now. We just have to carry that over next time."

The Ducks are down in the series 3-0. Only two teams have ever come back when down 3-0 in a series, and the last team to do it was the 1975 New York Islanders.

This series has been quite a letdown for me so far, and not because the team I'm rooting for, the Anaheim Mighty Ducks, are down. Until the 3rd period in Game #3, the scoring has been very low, and the # of quality chances to score have also been low. I blame the Edmonton Oilers for playing a system the encourages boring hockey.

The Oilers success has come from clogging up the passing lanes, blocking every shot possible, and never giving the guy with the puck any time or space to work with. It's a tough system to implement unless you have everyone on the team buying in - and the Oilers are doing that very well. The Oilers win by limiting the # of quality scoring chances for their opposition, relying on religion to make a few key saves, and getting a few opportunistic goals per game. I don't necessarily blame the Oilers for doing what they have to do to win, but it does make we wish that San Jose had finished off the Oilers when they were up 2-0 in the series and had a chance.

All three games have been close. The first two were identical 2-1 wins, with an empty nether. Game #3 had a wild finish, with the Oilers scoring three times in a 2:21 span in the 3rd to open up a 4-0 lead, before allowing the Mighty Ducks to score 4 times, and almost tie it in a mad scramble with a few seconds to go.

I hope Selanne is right. Up to the third period in Game #3, Selanne had been held scoreless in the series. If Selanne can build on that first goal, and the Ducks can put together a win tonight, they can still make a series out of it. They've already one 6 in a row once in the playoffs, so I wouldn't count them out just yet.

Musings on the Nintendo Wii

2006-05-16T21:27:00.000-04:00

After checking out some of the Nintendo Wii videos from E3 on youtube, I have to admit I'm intrigued. The Sega Genesis was the only console I ever owned, as I have generally preferred the depth and refinement of PC gaming over the non-stop button mashing of console gaming.

To give you an idea of the types of games I enjoy, If I had to put together a top ten list of the my favorite games of all time, I would have to say:

#1. Half-Life, PC, 1997, 10.0 - Simply the best game ever made

#2. Starcraft, PC, 2000 9.9 - The best RTS of all time. Millions of South Koreans can't be wrong

#3. Half-Life 2, PC, 2004 9.7 - Technically, this is far-and-away the best game of all time. Unfortunately, my laptop isn't quite powerful enough to run it that well, and it ends up overheating every twenty minutes, which really diminishes the immersion factor.

#4. System Shock 2, PC, 9.7 - At the time, this was the scariest and most immersive game I've ever played. This is also one of the most difficult games ever, requiring you to think carefully before every shot you take, lest you run out of ammo

#5. Deus Ex, PC, 9.6 - Another gem from Ion Storm.

#6. NHL '99, PC, 1999 9.5 - I was tempted to go with NHL '95 on the Sega Genesis, but after recently revisiting the game, I realized it wasn't quite as good as I remembered. I'll have to check out a post-lock version of EA Sport's NHL series some time.

#7. Unreal Tournament 2004, PC, 2004 9.2 - The Ultimate in multiplayer gaming. When the next Unreal Tournament game comes out, I may be forced to upgrade my gaming rig. (and revisit Half-Life 2 :)

#8. Super Mario 64 - My favorite console game of all time.

Also Rans: Thief, the Deadly Project, Need for Speed: Hot Pursuit, NBA Jam, High Heat Baseball, Fifa '99
----

As you'll probably notice, the majority of the games listed in my top ten are at least 5-6 years old, if not more. The trend over the past few years has been increasingly expensive gaming rigs and graphics cards, better graphics, bigger explosions, and dumbed-down game play. I just can't imagine plunking down $450 for an XBox 360 or $649 for a Playstation 3 (HD-DVD/Blueray drive or not)

But for some reason, I found myself intrigued by the Nintendo Wii - a product with one of goofiest names ever. The key to the Nintendo wii is the revolutionary new controller. Take a look a some of these innovative game ideas:

Wii Tennis -Get some exercise while playing a very fun game

Wii Golf -Work on your drives and putting without leaving your own living room

Wii E3 Demo - Highlighting some of the new games coming out for the Nintendo Wii

Wii Tech Demo - Some basic demos to show how the Wii controller may be used for gameplay

The key that differentiates the Nintendo Wii from the PS3 or XBox 360 is that they have brought fun and innovation back into gaming, instead of the same old derivative gameplay with slightly improved graphics. The Wii is expected to launch in Q4 2006 (probably just before Christmas) and sell for somewhere between $199 and $249. I'm really hoping they can manage to keep the price down at $199, because they'll move a lot more units at that price, and, maybe, just maybe, I may be able to convince my wife that it's worth it :)

Jon Stewart on NSA Wiretapping

2006-05-15T23:22:00.000-04:00

Did you just see that montage on the Daily Show - all Fox News clips trying to defend the president and the NSA surveillance program. Hilarious - "Sure there collecting our phone calls, but wouldn't you rather that than collecting our remains?"

The US Government is trying to quash the $50-100 billion lawsuits against the telcos, stating that such a case will disclose "state secrets" and it is in the interest of national security not to do so. They are invoking the infrequently used States Secrets Privilege, which has been used several times since 9/11.

Some related links:

US files motion to intervene in AT&T secrets case

Verizon Suit could Add Risk

Details on Verizon Lawsuit

US Government Intervenes in EFF vs AT&T

DOJ To Claim National Security in NSA Case

I love the fact that Stewart invoked the infamous "I did not have sexual relations with that Wiretapping Scandal" quote, which helps to shine a mirror on how ridiculous the Clinton scandal was compared to the seriousness to this affront on American Civil Liberties. With McClellan resigning, Rove indicted, Cheney under fire, this insane NSA scandal, and popularity polls below 30%, (not to mention so many other scandals which are simply too numerous to mention) can impeachment really be that far off?

Playoff Hockey

2006-03-23T19:26:00.000-05:00

"We have to climb over two (teams) to get to that spot," Leafs coach Pat Quinn said. "Montreal is looking to regain their spot in the next games. They are playoff games. We have to approach it that way."

This is it folks -- Puck drops in 10 minutes. Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Montreal Candiens. The play tonight, and again on Saturday night. The Leafs have 14 games left in their season, and need to pass two teams in order to make the playoffs.

If Toronto can sweep the Canadiens in this two game set, they will have sole possession of ninth place in the Eastern Conference.

New Jersey and Atlanta face off against each other tonight in another huge Eastern Conference matchup. Based on schedules and momentum, I believe the Leafs have a better chance of catching the New Jersey Devils than the Atlanta Thrashers, despite the fact that they are 6 points back in the standings.

New Jersey has 9 tough games left on their 14 game schedule, and have been struggling of late. At best, I expect the New Jersey Devils to go 7-7. As such, if the Leafs can manage a 10-3-1 record over the final stretch, they will overtake the Devils.

That might look like a tough task, but that is what the Leafs are going to need to do to make the playoffs. The alternative is to overtake the red hot Atlanta Thrashers, who are 7-3 in their past ten, and sit four points ahead, although the Leafs have a game in hand.

Current Standings:

6	TAMPA BAY	69	36	28	5	77	216	219	18-12-2	18-16-3	4-5-1
7	NEW JERSEY	68	34	26	8	76	188	195	21-10-3	13-16-5	4-4-2
8	ATLANTA	69	34	29	6	74	230	230	19-13-4	15-16-2	7-3-0

9	MONTREAL	68	32	27	9	73	194	212	17-10-4	15-17-5	4-5-1
10	TORONTO	68	32	30	6	70	208	226	21-12-2	11-18-4	5-4-1
11	FLORIDA	69	30	30	9	69	199	214	21-9-4	9-21-5	7-2-1
12	NY ISLANDERS	68	32	32	4	68	199	232	17-14-2	15-18-2	6-4-0

Leafs Win! Leafs Win!

2006-03-21T22:01:00.000-05:00

The playoff hopes are still alive. The Leafs survived a big test against the Carolina Hurricanes 3-2, setting up a huge two-game set against the Montreal Canadians later this week. Thanks to a Montreal Canadians loss, and a New Jersey loss, the Eastern Conference playoff race tightened up somewhat. Boston held a 4-2 lead halfway through the 3rd on Atlanta, but couldn't hang on, losing 5-4 in a shootout, allowing Atlanta to jump into the 8th and final playoff spot.

The Leafs closed the gap tonight. They are starting to play well, sitting at 5-3 in the last eight games. There is very little room for error left in the season. If they can pull out the two wins against Montreal, they'll be right back in the mix.

The Leaf's best bet to keep winning, and hope one of New Jersey, Atlanta or Tampa Bay falters enough to let them slip in to the final playoff spot.

Atlanta is one of the hottest teams in the League right now, so the Leafs will do well to keep up with them. Atlanta has three games against Tampa Bay, so if Atlanta keeps winning, the Lightning will slip at least a little bit. Unfortunately, it looks like Tampa Bay has the easiest schedule remaining - 6 games against the Penguins, Capitals and Panthers

New Jersey looks like the most likely candidate to slip in the standings during the final weeks of the playoff race. The Leafs have one head-to-head matchup against the Devils, on Sunday. The Devils also have matchups against Ottawa, Atlanta, Buffalo, three against the Flyers, two against the Canadians, and, finally, one against the Rangers. Given that nine of their remaining fourteen matchups are going to be tough, New Jersey will be hard-pressed to play .500 hockey at best (7-7), which would leave them with 90 points.

To sum it up, the odds are stacked against the Leafs, but it looks like they're are starting to play their best hockey of the year when they need it the most. If New Jersey goes 7-7, and the Leafs go 10-3-1, the Leafs will squeek in by the thinnest of margins.

#6. Tampa Bay (69 Games Played - 36-28-5 - 77 Points)
13 Games Remaing
Maximum Points Available: 103 Points
Expected: 92 Points (43 - 33 - 6)

#7. New Jersey (68 Games Played - 34-26-8 - 76 Points)
14 Games Remaining
Maximum Points Available: 104 Points
Expected: 91 Points (41 - 32 - 9)

#7. Atlanta (69 Games Played - 34-29-6 - 74 Points)
13 Games Remaining
Maximum Points Available: 100 Points
Expected: 87 Points (40 - 35 - 7)
----

#9. Montreal (68 Games Played - 32-27-9- 73 Points)
14 Games Remaining
Maximum Points Available: 104 Points
Expected: 85 Points (38 - 33 - 11)

#10. Toronto (68 Games Played - 32-30-6 - 70 Points)
14 Games Remaining
Maximum Points Available: 98 Points
Expected: 85 Points (39 - 36 - 7)

Scoreboard Watching

2006-03-21T20:09:00.000-05:00

So far, so good. Here's to hoping Toronto, Boston, Philadelphia and the New York Islanders all manage to pull out regulation wins. Toronto needs all the help it can get in order to scramble back into a playoff spot.

Toronto is up 1-0 on Carolina at the end of the first period :)

1st Period
Toronto	7:04, Alexander Steen 16 (power play) (Jeff O'Neill, Bryan McCabe)

Boston is up 2-0 on Atlanta midway through the second period

1st Period
Boston	2:14, Patrice Bergeron 23 (Brad Boyes, Brad Stuart)
Boston	17:14, Marco Sturm 26 (power play) (Brad Boyes, Patrice Bergeron)
2nd Period
None

Philadelphia is up 2-0 on New Jersey, also midway through the second period

1st Period
Philadelphia	1:49, Simon Gagne 40 (Mike Knuble, Peter Forsberg)
2nd Period
Philadelphia	6:54, Peter Forsberg 18 (power play) (Mike Knuble, Frederick Meyer Iv)

Meanwhile, Montreal and the New York Islanders are tied 1-1

1st Period
NY Islanders	9:11, Sean Bergenheim 2 (Mike York, Denis Grebeshkov)
Montreal	11:34, Mark Streit 2 (power play) (Mike Ribeiro, Alexei Kovalev)
2nd Period
None

Playing with the Numbers

2006-03-21T19:40:00.000-05:00

The playoff Race:

6	TAMPA BAY	69	36	28	5	77	216	219	18-12-2	18-16-3	4-5-1
7	NEW JERSEY	67	34	25	8	76	187	193	21-10-3	13-15-5	4-4-2
8	MONTREAL	67	32	26	9	73	193	209	17-10-4	15-16-5	5-4-1

9	ATLANTA	68	33	29	6	72	225	226	19-13-4	14-16-2	7-3-0
10	TORONTO	67	31	30	6	68	205	224	20-12-2	11-18-4	4-5-1
11	FLORIDA	68	29	30	9	67	196	212	20-9-4	9-21-5	6-3-1
12	NY ISLANDERS	67	31	32	4	66	196	231	16-14-2	15-18-2	6-4-0

Playing with the Numbers

#6. New Jersey (67 Games Played - 34-25-8 - 76 Points)
15 Games Remaining
Maximum Points Available: 106 Points
Expected: 93 Points (42 - 31 - 9)

#7. Tampa Bay (69 Games Played - 36-28-5 - 77 Points)
13 Games Remaing
Maximum Points Available: 103 Points
Expected: 92 Points (43 - 33 - 6)

#8. Montreal (67 Games Played - 32-26-9- 76 Points)
15 Games Remaining
Maximum Points Available: 106 Points
Expected: 87 Points (39 - 32 - 11)

----
#9. Atlanta (68 Games Played - 33-29-6 - 72 Points)
14 Games Remaining
Maximum Points Available: 100 Points
Expected: 87 Points (40 - 35 - 7)

#10. Toronto (67 Games Played - 31-30-6 - 68 Points)
15 Games Remaining
Maximum Points Available: 98 Points
Expected: 83 Points (38 - 37 - 7)

As you can see, the playoff race is going to be tight. I'm going to exclude the New York Islanders and Florida Panthers for now, as I don't think either of those two teams has what it takes to make it into the post-season. At their current pace, Montreal and Atlanta are both on pace for 87 point seasons - this is the baseline for squeeking into the playoffs, but I doubt it will be enough. It will likely take 89-90 points to get in - especially when you consider the fact that Atlanta is starting to put things together.

Toronto has a maximum theoretical limit of 98 points remaining for the season. Each loss (or OTL) lowers this theoretical number. They cannot afford to dip below 90 points on the season, and with 15 games remaining, this means they must put together an impressive 12-3 or 11-4 run to get in. With 8 games on the road, and tough matchups against Carolina, the Devils, the Flyers, Montreal, the Sabres and Senators, the Leafs have a steep hill to climb.

In the end, the Leafs are still in control of their own destiny, but they need to play like they are the hungrier team for every remaining game this season. If they manage to finish with at least 90 points, it should be enough to qualify for the final playoff position, and a first round matchup against either tonight's opponent, the Carolina Hurricanes, or the Leaf's perennial playoff rivals, the Ottawa Senators. The slight possibility of another seven game Toronto/Ottawa playoff series is enough to keep me glued to the NHL over the next few weeks.

Suglobov and Bell Start Tonight!

2006-03-21T19:18:00.000-05:00

It's do-or-die time for the Toronto Maple Leafs. Mid-way through the year, the Leafs were sitting comfortably in 5th place in the Eastern Confernce, 9 games above .500, destined for a playoff post. On January 7th, the Leafs were 24-15-3. Then, the rails came off the tracks. The Leafs lost 7 straight games, and managed to win only 5 games over a 22 game stretch, falling to below .500 for perhaps the first time since Pat Quinn became the coach back in '97-98.

In the past 7 games, Toronto is 4-3. They're playing better, and are receiving consistant goaltending from Tellqvist. With 15 games left, they are going to have to do better than that. Toronto is going to have to go 12-3, or at least 11-4, for a chance to slip into the final playoff spot.

This is perhaps the most important week of the season for the Toronto Maple Leafs. They have a tough opponent tonight, in the high-flying Carolina Hurricanes. Montreal, Atlanta, and Tampa Bay all picked up points last night. Tonight, Montreal, New Jersey, Atlanta, the New York Islanders all play, so the Leafs desperately need a win tonight to keep up the pace. The injection of youth into the lineup (Ondrus, Bell and Suglobov) is sure to energize a Leafs lineup that is playing hungry for the first time in recent memory.

On Thursday and Saturday, Toronto plays two road games in Montreal -- HUGE. If Toronto can win both of those games, and pull 4 points closer to the Montreal Canadians, they will be right back into the thick of the playoff race.

A quick look at the Eastern Conferance Playoff Race:

6. Tampa Bay 69 77 (13 Games Remaining)
7. New Jersey 67 76 (15 Games Remaining)
8. Montreal 67 73 (15 Games Remaining)
9. Atlanta 68 72 (14 Games Remaining)
10. Toronto 67 68 (15 Games Remaining)
11. Florida 68 67 (14 Games Remaining)
12. NY Islanders 67 66 (15 Games Remaining)

Men's Olympic Hockey Quarterfinal Preview

2006-02-21T22:36:00.000-05:00

Group B #4 USA (1-3-1) vs. Group A #1 Finland (5-0) 11:35 AM ET - The Americans finally looked to shake themselves out of their funk in today's game versus Russia, pushing a very talented squad to the limit, before falling 5-4. Unfortunately, I don't think this late resurgence will be enough to handle the seemingly unstoppable Finnish squad.

If the Finns can break out to an early lead, this game will be over quickly, as the Finnish defensive system and relentless puck pursuit has proved to be too much for anybody to handle. Finland managed to hold their opponents to an unheard of two goals during the five game round robin, including four shutouts.

Expect a big game from Rick Dipietro, but ultimately, the Finns should prevail, 4-2.

Group B #3 Sweden (3-2) vs. Group A #2 Switzerland(2-2-1) 10:35 AM ET - Sweden hasn't yet played to their full potential. On paper, this is a total mismatch. After big-game wins over Canada and the Czech Republic by Switzerland, expectations have risen. I'm not sure which Swiss goalie to expect. Both Aebischer and Gerber have had their moments, and it was Gerber who stole the show against Team Canada with a 49-save shutout.

With Peter Forsberg, Mats Sundin, Markus Nasland, Niklas Lidstrom and the Sedin Twins, Sweden just has too much firepower not to prevail in this one. At the same time, Sweden managed to lose to Belerus in the quarterfinals during the last world cup, so anything can happen. Expect a 6-3 win by Sweden.

Group B #2 Russia (4-1) vs. Group A #3 Canada (3-2) 2:35 PM ET - This is the blockbuster matchup we've all been waiting for. Too bad it had to happen in the first round of the quarterfinals. Watching video highlights from today's Russia-USA matchup, with highlight-real goals from Malkin, Ovechkin and company makes me nervous. Russia is an insanely skilled team.

Team Canada has yet to register a full game to be proud of. The 3rd period against Switzerland was the best I've seen them play, outshooting the opposition 24-1, but Martin Gerber was somehow able to keep them off the scoresheet.

If Canada is to win this game, they are going to need a heroic effort from Martin Brodeur. Brodeur had an amazing game today against the Czech Republic. They are also going to need a total team effort, which is something they have yet to display in this tournament. They need to play like Team Finland, beating opponents to the puck and winning the battles against the boards. This game is really a tossup, but I'll give the edge to Canada, 4-3.

Group B #1 Slovakia (5-0) vs. Group A #4 Czech Republic (2-3) 3:35 PM ET - Both of these teams are dangerous offensive units. The Czechs are led by the ever-dangerous Jaromir Jagr, and a maturing quarterbacking defenseman in Tomas Kaberle, who no longer appears to be afraid to shoot the puck. Slovakia has the second-most dangerous line in the Olympics, with Hossa, Gaborik and Demitra -- arguably more skilled than the Finnish line, but without quite the same level of production and chemistry.

Tomas Vokoun gives the Czechs an edge in goal. Slovakia doesn't really have a consensus #1 goalie - they have started three different goalies who have all played well. I would expect Peter Budaj to get the nod.

While the talent levels on these two teams are comparable, Slovakia has been playing much better as a team. Expect Slovakia to prevail 5-3.

Summary:

Finland 4 - USA 2
Sweden 6 - Switzerland 3
Canada 4 - Russia 3
Slovakia 5 - Czech Repulic 3

Men's Ice Hockey Olympic Quarterfinal Schedule

2006-02-21T22:13:00.000-05:00

I had trouble finding the schedule for tomorrow's lineup, so I thought I'd share it with you. Schedule courtesy of Sports Illustrated

10:35 AM ..... Sweden vs. Switzerland

11:35 AM ..... United States vs. Finland

2:35 PM ...... Canada vs. Russia

3:35 PM ...... Czech Republic vs. Slovakia

Michael Farber from SI.com previews the matchups here.

The Sleeping Giant Awakes

2006-02-21T21:40:00.000-05:00

Well, sort of...

Canada scored it's first goal in three games, roaring out to a 3-0 lead over the Czech Republic in the first period. The scoreless draught ended on a weak wrister from the blueline by Brad Richards. Canada followed it up with a powerplay goal by Martin St. Louis from a very weak angle, and then a powerful slapshot from a wide open Chris Pronger to open up a three goal first period lead. From that point on, Canada played just well enough to manage to hold on to the lead, thanks in large part to a heroic goaltending effort from Martin Brodeur. It wasn't pretty, and it wasn't anything to be too confident about, but Canada managed to break a two-game winless streak.

On second thought - maybe Canada was trying to lose :) The win pushed Canada up to third place in the Group standings. They tied Switzerland with 6 points each, but since Switzerland beat Canada in head-to-head play, the Canadians took the third seed, drawing Group B Second seed juggernaut Russia. This is not exactly the first round opponent either team wants to face.

Earlier today, Team Sweden's coach suggested that they would consider losing on purpose to avoid drawing Team Canada in the quarterfinals. If Canada lost, they would have fallen to fourth in the conference, and drawn a 5-0 Slovakia team, which isn't much of an upgrade.

Team Finland continued their stupendous play, shutting out Germany 2-0, and improving to a perfect 5-0. In the five game round robin, Finland gave up a total of 2 goals, outscoring their opponents 19-2 and registering 4 shutouts. In addition, the top scoring line for Finland, Lehtonen, Koivu and Selanne have combined for 11 goals and 26 points in 5 games. Selanne and Koivu are tied for first in scoring in the Olympic tournament, while Lehtonen is fourth in tournament scoring. I believe the Finnish powerplay and penalty kill are both ranked first in the tournament.

Swedish coach Bengt-Ake Gustafsson got his wish, as the Swedes fell 3-0 to Slovakia to draw Switzerland in the quarterfinals. The International ice Hockey Federation sent Kalervo Kummola, chief of the Finnish Hockey Association, to watch the game ensure that nothing fishy occured. I didn't get a chance to watch the game, but after losing 5-0 to Russia earlier in the week, I'm not sure that Sweden has what it takes to win this tournament.

USA finally put up a fight, but the Russians proved too strong, prevailing 5-4 in a close-fought match. The fact that USA managed to put up a fight against the Russians means that the USA-Finland quarterfinal tomorrow should at least be interesting. Backup goaltender Maxim Sokolov played the game for Russia, and gave up 3 goals on 26 shots. Robert Esche gave up 5 goals on only 21 shots, which doesn't sound so hot. Look for Dipietro to be back in the net in the quarterfinals. To Esche's credit, the Korolyuk goal was on a breakaway, the Malkin goal was on a huge two-on-one break, Markov was wide-open and had all the time in the world on his goal, and the Ovechkin-Malkin play was a beautiful one-timer. I wouldn't blame Esche on any of those - Russia is a scary-talented team. The only goal Esche should have had was the blistering slapshot by Kovalev from the point.

Men's Hockey Olympics Overanalysis

2006-02-19T18:01:00.000-05:00

The scheduling of men's' hockey games has been a little bit inconvenient for us North Americans. So far, I've been successful in catching all of the Team Canada games by taping the games, and watching them when I get home from work in the evening. I'm frustrated at the possibility of missing the quarterfinals and semifinals, since all six games take place during the work day. Depending on when Canada/Finland plays in the quarter-finals and semi-finals, I might try to go in to work at 5:00 AM on those days, so I can watch the game from home in the afternoon. If it's a 10:30 or 11:30 AM start, I'll plan on taping the game, and watching it when I get home in the evening

The schedules won't be determined until Tuesday afternoon, since it depends on the final round-robin positions. Finland is almost guaranteed to take the #1 seed in group A, pending a win over Germany, and will play the #4 seed in Group B, which is almost certainly going to be USA. My guess is that game will be at 3:30 PM, because USA seems to always get the preferred time slot to allow Americans a chance to get home from work to catch the 3rd period.

If Canada loses against the Czechs on Tuesday, they'll be the #4 seed, which means they'll play either Slovakia or Sweden, depending on who wins the Sweden/Slovakia game. If Canada wins against the Czechs, they will most likely get the #3 seed, as I'm guessing Switzerland will beat Italy to take the #2 seed. With the #3 seed, they will play the #2 seed in group B, meaning they will face one of Slovakia, Russia, or Sweden. My guess is Canada will get the 2:30 PM time slot on Wednesday no matter what happens, based on the same reasoning as I mentioned above to determine Team USA's time slot.

Based on the reasoning above, here is my guess at the final round-robin standings:

Group A

#1 Finland 5-0
#2 Switzerland 3-1-1
#3 Canada 3-2
#4 Czech Republic 2-3

(Out: Italy (0-1-4) and Germany (0-2-3))

Group B

#1 Slovakia 5-0
#2 Russia 4-1
#3 Sweden 3-2
#4 USA 1-3-1

(Out: Latvia (1-3-1) and Kazakhstan (0-5))

***Note: Latvia is not mathematically eliminated yet. If Latvia wins against Kazakhstan, and USA loses to Russia, of which there is a very good possibility, they will finish with identical 1-3-1 records. Since USA and Latvia tied when they played each other, the tie-breaker will be decided based on goal differential. Since USA is +1 and Latvia -15, a sixteen goal swing needs to take place. The odds of this are about one in a million. Latvia plays at 5:30 in the morning on Tuesday, while the USA-Russia game is at 2:30 in the afternoon. If Latvia, which has scored a total of 9 goals in the tournament, manages to pile on the offense, and blow out Kazakhstan 10-0, they get to wait until the afternoon, and hope that Russia defeats USA by at least six goals. Again, the odds of this are about one in a million, so there isn't much point in even mentioning it, but I'm all about trivial pursuits.

Based on these standings, the quarterfinals schedule should look something like this:

Quarterfinals (Wednesday)

Quarterfinals, 10:30 am et (My Guess is Switzerland vs. Sweden)
Quarterfinals, 11:30 am et (My Guess is Slovakia vs. Czech Republic)
Quarterfinals, 2:30 pm et (My guess is Canada Vs. Russia)
Quarterfinals, 3:30 pm et (My Guess is Finland vs. USA)

Semi-Finals (Friday)

Semifinal, 10:30 am et (I'll pencil in Finland vs. Sweden)
Semifinal, 3 pm et (I'll pencil in Canada vs. Slovakia)

Bronze Medal Game (Saturday)

Men: Bronze Medal, 2:30 pm et (Sweden vs. Slovakia)

Gold Medal Game (Sunday)

Men: Gold Medal, 8 am et (Canada vs. Finland)

Canada Looks a Little Rusty - Finland looks Unstoppable

2006-02-19T17:10:00.000-05:00

The was a very well-played game by the Finns. Selanne was a monster in the first period - he was all over the ice. He scored one goal, and almost had two more in the second, with one bouncing on top of the net, and drawing a penalty on the second when he got tackled by Adam Foote when he was all alone in front of the net.

Finland has now outscored the opposition 17-2 in 4 games, and should close out the round-robin with a perfect 5-0 record, since they are facing a relatively weak German team on Tuesday.

There was a stark difference between the Canadian powerplay and the Finnish powerplay. It's like the Canadian players aren't used to running a powerplay on the international ice surface. If you watched the Finnish powerplay, they had the opposing defenseman spread out over the entire offensive zone, and had Canada scrambling.

On the final Canadian powerplay, it was the Canadian offensive players that were scrambling, trying to find a once of breathing room, while the Finnish defenders hustled to pressure the play, succesfully preventing Canada from getting set up at all.

Canada has one non-elimination game remaining before the quarterfinals, and they better have their act together by Wednesday. It doesn't get much easier, with Tuesday's tune-up game against the Czech Republic.

As far as Canada goes, they've now been shut out for 124 consecutive minutes. They have one tune-up game remaining, against the Czech Republic on Tuesday. They need to spend some serious time working on their powerplay and their breakout. Once Finland got out to a 2-0 lead, they played the trap to a perfection, and limited Canada to a few quality scoring chances. When Canada did manage to have a quality scoring chance, they were stopped, first by Martin Gerber yesterday, and by Antero Niitymaki today.

It takes three straight wins from the quarterfinals on in. At the moment, Finland looks like they are by far the most prepared and best-coached team in the Olympics, and they are now the gold medal favorites. We could see a Canada-Finland matchup again in the Semi-Final or Final. I fully expect Canada to break out of their slump on Tuesday.

They're doing everything but putting one in the net

2006-02-19T16:51:00.000-05:00

What a chance that was for Thornton's line. The Finns are playing a rprevent defense, doing their best to limit the "huge" scoring chances, but the Canadians are surging. If Finland catches the Canadians pressing too hard, they're going to end up with a few odd-man rushes of their own. Canada needs the next goal, or it's game over. Canada needs to learn how to play with this intensity for the full game -- the first periods for Canada have been very weak.

Niitymaki looks amazingly focused, and it's going to take a great tic-tac-toe play to beat him, which is tough, given the prevent defense the Finns are playing.

Great 3rd Period Coming Up

2006-02-19T16:34:00.000-05:00

Wow - great pace to this game so far. What a stop by Niitymaki on Nash' breakaway - I thought Canada was getting to get on the board for sure with last year's leading NHL goal-scorer in on a clear-cut breakaway. Canada has now been shut out for five straight periods.

Selanne played another strong period. He had one shot bounce up and land on top of the net. It looked like he was going to score midway through the period when he received a pass in front, and was making his way to the far side of the net, when he was tackled from behind by Adam Foote.

I have no idea what to expect going into the third period. Canada is not going to get shut out. Expect at least 18 shots from the Canadians, and at least two goals. I expect the final score to be 3-2, going either way. Look for a goal from the Canadians in the first three or four minutes, as they will come out flying.

Finland brings it in the 1st

2006-02-19T15:35:00.000-05:00

Shots are 14-5 Finland after the first period. My favorite player, Teemu Selanne is all over the place, playing the best hockey of his career. Selanne now has 6 goals/2 assists for 8 points early into the fourth game of this tournament. The Finns are also getting great production from Jere Lehtinen, Saku Koivu and Olli Jokinen. After outworking, out-hustling and out-muscling the Canadians in the first period, Finland is up 2-0.

Finland has now outscored their competition 17-2 after 10 periods of play. If they can hold off and win this one against the Canadians, they instantly become the favorites to win the Gold medal.

As a second-generation Canadian with a Finnish heritage, I'm torn on who to cheer for in this game. I really want Canada to defend the gold medal after winning the gold medal for the first time in a seriously long time in 2002. When you look at the rosters, Canada has far-and-away the best looking team, but for some reason, Finland has gelled as a team much quicker. Finland is playing "North American Style" hockey, and plays their heart out every single shift.

Antero Niitimaki's Goals Against Average is below 1.00, and his save percentage is above .960%. You don't win championships without solid goaltending, and the Finns have that. Brodeur and Luongo have both played well enough, but the Canadians have had a tremendously difficult time scoring. The Canadian players must still visions of that Gerber glove save haunting them every time they take a shot.

I fully expect Canada to break out in the second period, with a flurry of activity. They did it yesterday, exploding for 24 shots in the 3rd period alone, but failed to register a goal. They simply have too much talent too be kept off the scoresheets. This game will be close by the end, and I expect it to finish in a one goal victory either way.

---
With the close to Russia, Kazakhstan is now eliminated from quarterfinal contention. The only team with a theoretical shot of making it in is Latvia. With a win over Kazakhstan, and a loss to Russia by USA, the teams would finish tied. The tie-breaker would be goal differential. USA has a +16 advantage on Latvia, so unless Russia seriously blows out the Americans, Latvia has no shot of making it in.

Finland takes a 4-2 lead

2006-02-18T16:58:00.000-05:00

Selanne scored his tournament-leading 5th goal of the tournament to make 3-2, and the Jere Lehtinen scored his second of the game to give them a 4-2 lead with 11 minutes to go in the third. The Finns have switched to a frustrating defensive poise that has forced the Czech Republic to try and stretch out their passes, resulting in a huge advantage in odd-man rushes. Finland has had five odd-man rushes in the game, while the Czechs have only one. At this point, we should expect Finland continue to patiently play their defensive game, while capitalizing on any chances the Czechs give up trying create some offense.

Slovakia wins 2-1; Finland and Czech Republic tied 2-2

2006-02-18T16:31:00.000-05:00

Slovakia wins 2-1, and improves to 3-0. With wins against USA and Russia, Slovakia has to be considered a serious medal contender. I pegged them at sixth at the beginning of the tournament, since I didn't think Peter Budaj to be a top-flight goaltender, and I thought their defense looked a little suspect. Slovakia has games against Swedan and Kazakhstan, and could end up being the only team with an unblemished 5-0 record going into the quarterfinals. Currently, Slovakia and Finland are the only teams remaining in the tournament with a perfect record.

With the loss USA, now has 1 win, 1 loss and 1 tie, for three points in three games. With only two tough games left on their schedule against Swedan and Russia, the American team needs to be careful. The only need to finish in the top four to make the quarterfinals, and they aren't in any serious risk of being passed by Kazakhstan or Latvia, but their record so far is a cause for worry. If Kazakhstan had managed to steal a point from Russia today (they lost 1-0), I might been a little more worried. Latvia probably has the best chance of jumping into the quarterfinals, although they would need a win against Kazakhstan, at least a tie against Russia, and hope that USA loses their last two games. Actually, the either need a tie against Russia, or a massive blowout against Kazakhstan, as the tie-breaker with the USA would be based on goal differential. Currently, USA is +2 and Latvia is -8. I suppose if USA gets blown out by both Russia and Sweden, Latvia has a chance to squeak in without managing a tie against Russia. I don't think Kazakhstan, Italy or Germany hae any hope of making the quarterfinals. As it stands, it looks pretty certain that the teams making it in will be, although the seeding is still to be decided:

Group A

Finland
Canada
Switzerland
Czech Republic

Group B

Slovakia
Russia
Sweden
USA

I'm watching the Finland-Czech Republic matchup now, rooting for the Finns. Finland tied it up 1-1 midway through the first, when Florida Panthers captain Olli Joikinen tapped in a pass from Montreal Canadians captain Saku Koivu on a 2-on-1. Koivu did a great job selling the shot and freezing goaltender Tomas Vokoun.

There was a scary moment in the second period of the Finland-Czech Republic matchup. Jaromir Jagr, arguably the NHLs best player, went down in a big hit by Jarkku Ruutu. Jagr's head was down, so he was in a vulnerable position. Jagr's helmet came off, and has a nasty cut somewhere on his head. The announcers said that Jagr was wearing a non-standard helmet that the NHL would not allow a player to use.

They called a 5-minute boarding major and a game misconduct on Ruutu. It was a relatively clean hit, so I'm not sure the penatly is entirely warrented - it was an unfortunate situation - the reason Jagr got hurt was that he was bent down at the waist, and had his head near the boards. Hopefully, Jagr will be alright.

USA is down 2-1 with 3 minutes to go in the third. Both games have been fast-paced and entertaining so far.

Midway through the second period, Finland scored on the powerplay to take a 2-1 lead. Dallas Stars forward Jere Lehtinen just snuck one by, allowing the Finns to take a 2-1 lead.

Finland just got two penalties called against them, and the Czechs tied the game 2-2 on the two-man advantage.

An upset of Olympic proportions!

2006-02-18T12:12:00.000-05:00

This is the first time that Switzerland has ever beaten Canada. Two goals for Sault Ste. Marie native Paul Dipietro, and an insane performance by goaltender Matrin Gerber, was the difference. The crowd just unveiled a huge Swiss flag that is covering half the crowd.

Summary of the upsets and surprises so far in these Olympic Games:

Switzerland 2 - Canada 0 (Upset Rating: 10 / 10 - Canada outshot the Swiss 24-1 in the 3rd period alone, but it wasn't enough. Two Canadian goals were disallowed by the ref, but give the Swiss a well-deserved win)

USA 3 - Latvia 3 (Upset Rating 9 / 10 - A team with only one NHL player, goaltender Arters Irbe, managed to tie an NHL All-Star Team)

Russia 1 - Kazakhstan 0 (Surprise Rating 8 / 10 - just the fact that this game was so close is a huge surprise to me)

Switzerland 3 - Czech Republic 2 (Upset Rating; 8 / 10 - This Swiss team is for real)

Slovakia 5 - Russia 3 (Upset Rating 4 / 10 - The Slovaks have a talented lineup, but they shouldn't really be considered to be on the same level as the Russian team)

Switzerland is through the toughest part of their schedule (Finland, Czech Republic, Canada) with an amazing 2-1 record. Now, they get two relatively easy games, against Italy and Germany. The 5-0 win over the Swiss by Finland now looks huge. With the way Martin Gerber played today (49 save shutout), you have to seriously consider the Swiss as a medal contender.

Is it a goal?

2006-02-18T11:00:00.000-05:00

Is it a goal? Sure seems like it - it's been under review for the past five minutes, with no sign of a call. The video evidence is inconclusive, as you can't see the puck inside of Gerber's glove. It should count as a goal, but without video evidence to make the call, I don't think they can rule it a goal. It's either 2-0 or 2-1 for the Swiss. Either way, Canada is putting on the pressure, and it looks like they have finally decided to play.

A break for the Swiss

2006-02-18T10:53:00.000-05:00

The Swisis just got a break. Canada managed to get a puck by the goalie, but the ref blew the whistle as the puck was crossing the goal line - NO GOAL. The call was made because Bertuzzi was in the crease - It's the first time I've heard that rule called. Canada has put up some intense pressure in the past two minutes - it looks like they've finally decided that the Swiss can beat them if they don't play like they are capable of. A powerplay coming up for Canada, and I think they're finally going to put one on the board.

The Swiss goalie, Martin Gerber is on fire - The third period is going to be awesome!

Canada is in tough

2006-02-18T10:40:00.000-05:00

Canada generally dominated the play in the first, and outshot the Swiss 11-5 in the first period, but they couldn't find a way to beat goaltender Martin Gerber. This looks like it is going to be a tough game for the Canadians to pull out - I still can't imagine the Canadians losing this one, but the Swiss have impressed me so far, and Gerber is the kind of goalie that can come up with a 40-save shutout.

Almost half-way through the second period, still down 1-0, Canada is about to face a 5-on-3 disadvantage. This is going to be a interesting day.

USA and Slovakia meet at 2:00 PM - Slovakia is 2-0 after their surprise win over Russia.

Finland and the Czechs play at 3:00 PM - The 5-0 win over the Swiss by the Finns earlier this week looks even more impressive after watching the Swiss beat the Czechs 3-2, and Canada have a tough time with them here in the first. If Finland manages to pull out another win today against the Czechs, I think Canada better be worried about tomorrows matchup with Finns.

Earlier today, Russia barely squeeked by Kazakhstan 1-0. I've never heard of the guy before, but Kazakhstani goalie Vitaliy YEREMEYEV managed to stop 49 out of 50 shots to keep Kazakhstan in the game. Italy and Germany tied 3-3.

Men's Olympic Hockey Roundup

2006-02-18T02:58:00.000-05:00

I'm looking forward to an exciting weekend of Olympic hockey. The highlight of the weekend for me will be when Canada and Finland play each other at 3:00 PM on Sunday. It looks pretty certain teams are going to easily make it past the round-robin. I'd say this is the most intriguing round-robin game left on the schedule. Finland is the only team in the tournament that hasn't given up at least a goal. Both of the Finnish goalies have a shutout. Selanne is leading the tournament in both Goals (4) and Points (5). Canada hasn't been seriously challenged as of yet, although we'll have to wait and see what the Switzerland has in store for the Canadians tomorrow morning.

Here is my list of the remaining round-robin games worth watching:

Canada vs. Switzerland, 9:30 am et (Saturday 2/18) - Canada should win this game easily. The Swiss are usually the "best of the rest" - just a small step below the elite seven teams in the tournament, although they seem to have been slowly closing the gap over the past few years. Switzerland usually plays a fairly tight-checking close game, so the scores usually remain close. The 3-2 win over the Czechs earlier today was huge for the Swiss program. I expect Canada to win this game either 4-1.

Slovakia vs. USA, 2 pm et (Saturday 2/18) - USA responded well today after a hugely disappointing tie with Latvia, with a 4-1 win over Kazekstan. USA has three tough games left in their round robin schedule: Slovakia, Russia and Sweden. They might need to win two of those games to advance out of the round robin portion of the tournament. A loss against Slovakia would put USA in jeopardy of finishing in 8th place or worse :( Slovakia is no push-over - I had them seeded 7th at the beginning of the tournament, but they managed to beat a talented Russian squad 5-3. The forward lines on both of these teams is scary, although Slovakia is not as deep on defense or in net. Watch out for Marian Hossa, Bondra, Gaborik, Satan, Nagy and Stumpel on Slovakia.

Czech Republic vs. Finland, 3 pm et (Saturday 2/18) - This will be a big test for the Finn squad. After a 3-2 loss to Switzerland, and an injury to Dominic Hasek, the Czechs are ripe for the pickings. Jagr hasn't really stepped up and had a huge game yet, although he has carried the New York Rangers all season. I'd be mostly concerned about containing Jagr on the Czech squad, and preventing him from having a huge game. Selanne has been on fire early in tournament (4 Goals, 1 assist in 2 games), and it'll be interesting to see if he can keep up the same level of play.

USA vs. Sweden, 11 am et (Sunday, 2/19) - I was quite surprised to see Sweden go down so easily against Russia, getting shut out 5-0. Both of these teams have something to prove. With Peter Forsberg, the Swedes are not anywhere near as dangerous as they could be. Again, USA needs to pick up some points against Slovakia, Russia or Sweden, and this is probably their best chance to pick up a win.

Tuesday is probably the best day to stay home to watch hockey during the round robin, with three huge games, although I suppose you might want to save your day off for the quarterfinals on Wednesday, or the Semi-Finals on Friday.

Tuesday's lineup:

Canada vs. Czech Republic, 10:30 am et
Sweden vs. Slovakia, 2 pm et
USA vs. Russia, 2:30 pm et

Canada Vs. Czech Republic - Depending on how Finland plays against Canada and the Czechs earlier in the week, this game could well determine the #1 seed in Group A. I've downgraded my assessment of the Czechs after the injury to Hasek and the loss to Switzerland, although they are still a dangerous team with Jagr and a very capable Tomas Vokoun in net. Defenceman Tomas Kaberle scored twice in the opening night, after scoring just six goals all season in the NHL. Outside of Jagr and Kaberle, the talent level of the Czechs appears to be a little thinner year than at previous international events. Other players worth watching include Hejduk, Lang, and Straka.

USA vs. Russia - If the Americans can pull out wins against Sweden and Slovakia, they will assure themselves a spot in the quarterfinals. I'd hate to see USA forced to pull out a win against the Russians. The Russians probably have the purest offensive lineup in the tournament. Watch out for Kovalchuck, Ovechkin, Kovalev, Datsyuk, Malkin and Afinogenov. Ovechkin has quickly made a name for himself as perhaps the NHL's most talented player during his rookie year this season -- check out this collection of highlight real plays for an idea of what Ovechkin is capable of with this set of highlights, and then follow it up with this clip. The goal he scored sliding on his back is perhaps the best goal I've ever seen.

The Quarterfinals are on Wednesday. Semi-finals are next Friday, the bronze medal matchup is on Saturday, and the gold medal game is next Sunday.

Cheers and Jeers

2006-01-04T21:47:00.000-05:00

Cheer - USC and Texas - Both teams put together impressive undefeated seasons, ensuring that a true national champion will be selected this year. Midway through the first quarter, the game has not disappointed. Both coaches have been foiled early, aggressively going for it on fourth down.

Jeer - The Michigan Wolverines - After winning a second straight Big Ten Championship, a fairly strong showing in last year's Rose Bowl, losing a heartbreaker to Texas, 38-37 with a last second Texas field goal as time expired, and very promising freshman seasons by Hart and Henne, the Wolverines started out the season ranked third in the nation, behind USC and Texas. Things began to unravel early, with an early season loss to Notre Dame. The Wolverines suffered an injury plagued season, including injuries to several key players on the offensive line, and a disappointing sophomore season from running back Michael Hart. The 7-5 record of the Wolverines was the worst record since the mid-eighties.

Cheer - Joe Paterno and the Penn State Nittany Lions - Penn State finished one play away from a perfect undefeated season. The aforementioned Michigan Wolverines caused the only blemish on Penn State's season, when Henne completed a pass to Mario Manningham with no time remaining on the clock.

Penn State finished out the season with an exciting triple-overtime win over Florida State in the Orange Bowl to ensure a top-three ranking in the final national polls.

Jeer - Fox Broadcasting Company - This fall, Fox introduced an intriguing new television series called Reunion. The show wasn't exceptionally well written or executed, but it was an interesting concept and a show that me and my wife followed for the past couple months.

What made this show special was that it was a 20-episode murder mystery, covering one year per season. Now, basically at the half-way point of the season, Fox just announced that they are canceling the show and will not broadcast the remaining episodes.

Sure, it wasn't a great show. Sure, it didn't have great ratings, but you can't do that with a murder mystery series! Shame on you, Fox Corporation, for putting once again demonstrating where your true loyalties lie, once again putting corporate profits above fan loyalty.

Cheer - Toronto Maple Leafs - Around this time the last time the NHL had a regular season, fighting a number of injuries to key players, the Leafs reeled off a sixteen-game undefeated streak, on route to a 103 point season, temporarily taking over first place overall in the NHL.

The Leafs appear to once again be starting to catch on fire, with a six-game winning streak, while several key players, including Jason Allison and Eric Lindros, remain injured. Two weeks ago, the Leafs were on the brink of being pushed temporarily into a non-playoff position. After the six game winning streak, they are now in a fight for fifth in the conference with the New York Rangers. The Leafs are still a long way from contending for the conference lead, way behind the Ottawa Senators, but they definitely look better than earlier this season. One of the keys has been the play of veteran goalie Ed Belfour, who finally appears to be playing to the level he is capable of. The upcoming week should be an interesting challenge for the Leafs, with a three-game road sweep through Western Canada, playing in Vancouver, Edmonton and Calgary.

Jeer - USA Hockey, Fox Sports Net, and the US Media - For failing to promote the World Junior Hockey Tournament at all during the five years I have resided in the United States. See my previous rant for all you ever want to hear on the topic. If you want to watch the gold medal game this year, or ever want to watch a WJHC game in the future, please contact USA Hockey and Fox Sports Net to voice your displeasure.

Cheer - The State of Wisconsin - For signing legislature earlier today that will require open source software to be used in touchscreen voting machines. This is a huge victory for democracy. Here's to hoping this trend spreads to more states throughout the country.

Cheer - Tuukka Rask - Future Toronto Maple Leaf prospect Tuukka Rask put together one of the greatest individual goaltending performances in years, with a 53-save overtime shutout over Sweden in the quaterfinals of the World Junior Hockey Tournament, allowing team Finland to squeak by with a 1-0 victory. Honorable mention goes to Justin Pogge of Team Canada, another Leafs prospect, who has two shutouts for himself in the tournament, and is one win away from a gold medal.

Jeer - Congress, Lobbyists and Corruption - Jack Abramoff's guilty plea is an abysmal indictment of the state of US political corruption. Here's to hoping this is a turning point to the political climate of the United States. Lobbyist money cannot continue to be the chief force in American politics.

Let the Game Begin :)

2006-01-04T20:01:00.000-05:00

My money is on Texas. I'm hoping for a huge offensive battle. USC has the more explosive offense, but both teams have numbers that are out of this world. Texas dodged a bullet early this season, managing to walk out of Ohio State with a 25-22 win, while USC barely squeaked by Notre Dame earlier this season. Other than those two games, these teams have been dominating. USC has won 34 straight, while Texas has won seventeen in a row. Both teams have scored fifty or more points seven times this season. Wow!

The best two games in the past two years have been the Texas-Michigan Rose Bowl last year, and the Texas-Ohio State matchup early this year.

The Vegas line has USC listed as 7 1/2 point favorites. Some more numbers:

USC is averaging 50 points a game; Texas is averaging 50.9. USC's lowest output is 34; Texas scored fewer than 40 once, at Ohio State.

I'll pick Texas as six point favorites, with a final score of 43-37.

And you Wonder Why Hockey Never Seems to Take Off in the States

2006-01-03T23:20:00.000-05:00

Yesterday, I complained about about poor reffing in the NCAA College Bowl Games. Today, I complain about the complete lack of coverage of the World Junior Hockey Tournament in the United States. For those of you who may not be aware, the World Junior Hockey Tournament is the best two weeks of hockey you can find anywhere outside of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

A couple of years ago, Canada and the United States met in the championship game, and I was appalled to find out that the US media was ignoring the game completely, instead deciding to air some Ali-Frasier bout that took place twenty-five years ago. The US Junior Team went on to win their first ever World Junior Hockey Championship that year, and I could not find a mention of it on the news or in the newspaper headlines the next day.

Contrast this with Canada. Growing up, I looked forward to Christmas break each year, when I was treated to two straight weeks of continuous WJHC coverage on TSN. What a disappointment it has been for me since moving here to the United States.

I wrote Fox Sports Net about the possibility of broadcasting Saturday's New Years Eve matchup between the USA - Canada, but did not receive any response at all.

Fox Sports Net owns the rights to televising the US games in this tournament. For some reason, they have decided to only televise the games on Fox Sports Net North, available in Wisconsin and Minnesota, I believe. Here in Ann Arbor, I am stuck watching Fox Sports Net Detroit, featuring an (exciting, I gather) early season Oklahoma State-Pepperdine College Basketball matchup.

To make matters worse, USAHockey previously announced that they would provide a live radio feed on their website. I pulled up the site, and was very disappointed to listen to twenty consecutive minutes of the worst elevator music you could ever imagine before turning it off in disgust. Finally, after a little digging, I found an alternative live feed of the game on Team 1040, a Vancouver-based radio station. Leave it to a Canadian website to bail me out.

What I'm getting at is this -- time and time again, I here about how Hockey ranks like tenth among sports popularity in the United States of America, below the likes of Figure Skating, Synchronized Swimming and World Series Poker. What do you expect when you fail to promote the one of the most exciting tournaments around. Put the game on TV, and give fans a chance to appreciate the quality of hockey available in this tournament. Last years tournament featured Sidney Crosby and Alexander Ovechkin, two emerging stars in the NHL, along with Dion Phaneuf, Mike Richards, Jeff Carter, and Patrice Bergeron. This year, the Russian team features Evgeny Malkin, a player that could one day challenge Crosby and Ovechkin for the NHL Scoring lead. Other emerging stars in this years tournament include Finnish goalie Tuukka Rask, who managed to put together a 53-shot shutout over Sweden in the Quarterfinals, Phil Kessel, a potential number one draft pick on the Americans, Jack Johnson, a dominating defense force from the University of Michigan, and Robbie Shremph, also on the US squad.

Going into the tournament, the US squad was favored to win the tournament, given the number of quality players on this squad. They are in tough tonight against Russia here in the Semi-finals, which is going to be a close battle. If you're interested, Russia is currently up 1-0 after the first period.

Oklahoma State-Pepperdine - give me a break! If you're going to insult hockey by skipping a semi-final matchup involving the US Junior Team, at least have the decency to feature a ranked team, instead of showing a completely meaningless regular season matchup between two mediocre basketball clubs.

The Call that Completely Ruined the Outback Bowl

2006-01-02T15:35:00.000-05:00

Absolutely Awful

The Outback bowl, featuring Iowa and Florida was shaping up to be a classic. Down 31-7 going into the fourth quarter, Drew Tate started a late game charge, throwing two touchdowns to Hinkel, one with 13:51 remaining, and the second with 6:59 to go. Starting the quarter down by 24 points, the game looked out of hand, but suddenly, it looked like Drew Tate migh be able to perform some late game magic. If you'll remember, last season Tate threw a huge game-winning touchdown from mid-field last year in the Capitol One Bowl versus LSU.

After scoring the second touchdown, the Iowa Hawkeyes were down by 10. They punted to Florida, and looked to have all the momentum in the world, stopping Florida on third down a yard short. Florida pulled out a dangerous fake punt close to their own end zone, and managed to secure a first down. The gators then proceeded to wear off four minutes off the clock and force Iowa to use its three timeouts. The Gators eventually lost the ball with a little over two minutes remaining trying to go for it on another fourth down.

Iowa proceeded to drive the field and kick a fieldgoal, making it a one possession game with 1:11 remaining. They set up for the on-side kick, got a perfectly executed hop, and recovered the football, setting up a story book ending, giving Tate a chance to pull out another game winning touchdown in the final minute of a bowl game.

But wait - a flag on the field - "Offside" declares the Conference USA ref. They replayed the kickoff five or six times, and the player in question was definately onside. Horribly bad call. Instead of a storybook ending, Iowa is forced to rekick another low percentage onside kick attempt, which Florida recovers, and promptly takes a knee to win the game. The play was close, but the Iowa player was definately on-side. With instant replay, there is no excuse to have a referee blow a call on the most important play of the game, essentially awarding the Outback Bowl to the Florida Gators on a silver platter.

This is not the only bowl game that was decided by poor refing. Ultimately, the Michigan Wolverines lost the Alamo bowl to the Nebraska Cornhuskers due to poor execution in the fourth quarter. They had a chance to put the game away, up 28-17 and deep into Nebraska territory late in the fourth quarter. Three turnovers in the second half of the fourth quarter was the ultimate difference. But the referees did their best to help out Nebraska. Ultimately, the Wolverines lost because they did not have time to complete a final drive to win the game.

Bad calls by the Refs:

Forcing Michigan to use two of their timeouts to dispute plays that definatley should have been under review. The supposed touchdown called by the refs was an obviously hit the ground, and it is a travesty that the Wolverines had to use a timeout to get the call reversed.

I still think the supposed fumble by Henne was simply an imcomplete pass. This was the second time this season the Wolverines were burned by a similar looking play. A similar play deep in Michigan State Spartans led to a Spartans touchdown which almost cost the Wolverines the game. Calling that a fumble was a huge break for Nebraska. What was worse was that the refs failed to act promptly to declare the play "under review" when it was an obvious questionable call. Forcing the Wolverines to use yet another timeout late in the game was unconsinable.

Next up was late in the game, when Michigan forced Nebraska to a fourth down with a minute and change left in the game. With no timeouts remaining thanks to the refs, the Wolverines were at the mercy of the clock. Rather than spot the ball immediately, the refs waited for a seemingly insane amount of time before spotting the ball. The Wolverines should have got the ball back with about forty-five to fifty seconds remaining, which is just enough time to put together a drive in college football. Instead, the refs let the clock run out, and the Wolverines got the ball back with 26 seconds. At this point, I almost feel like the refs calling these games have money riding on them.

Finally, we come to the infamous final play of the game. With no time remaining on the clock, the Wolverines resorted to a gimmick hook and ladder, end up lateralling the ball nine times, and end up with a streaking Ecker and Breaston running down the sideline. Suddenly, a bunch of Nebraska coaches and players start running all over the field - there were literally about a hundred players on the field while the game was still going. Ecker and Breaston should have had room to operate to make it into the endzone, but we'll never know whether all those coaches standing in the way influenced Ecker's decision to hold on to the ball and try to make it into the endzone, rather than trying to look for Breaston who was right behind him. With all the coaches and players in the way, it certainly appeared that the only option Ecker had was to run down the sideline and try to will his way into the endzone. Ecker made it to the Nebraska thirteen yard line before being tackled. How was a penalty not called when there were 100 Nebraska players occupying space on the field? How did the refs make so many questionable and bad decisions in this game.

This is the end of my rant on College Football refs. There have been a lot of exciting college football games, and a lot of great endings. I'm going to take some time to discuss the positives of the Michigan/Nebraska game a little later, but for now I still have four or five great bowl games to watch.

Leafs 4 - Refs 4

2005-12-19T20:16:00.000-05:00

What a game! What a joke!

The Leafs have somehow managed to tie it up 4-4 late in the first vs. the Referee-assisted NY Islanders.

This has to be the worst-refed game I can remember. After the Leafs took a 2-1 lead, the Refs basically handed the Islanders a 3-goal handicap after calling 3 straight 5-on-3s on the Leafs, who, at one point, had 3 defenceman in the penalty box. The Islanders were 3-for-6 on the powerplay, with 2 5-on-3 goals, and had a 7-2 advantage in penalties called.

The Leafs appear to have plenty of jump in tonight's game, and should be fired up to put this one away. They have all the motivation they need to win this game on the scoresheet after having to deal with the huge handicap dealt by the refs & all the momentum in the world after scoring twice to tie it back up.

The best news for the Leafs is on the scoreboard, as Czerkawski is starting to warm up, and has scored in two straight games; Allison has two assists; Ponikerovsky has tied his career high with 9 goals on the season (in only 32 games); and Jeff O'Neill's late goal is his first point in 8 games.

LET'S GO LEAFS!!!

Go Leafs!!

Quick Update - Al Franken at the Michigan Theatre - Hyde Street in Charcoal Pencil

2005-12-12T21:52:00.000-05:00

I've been all over the place over the past few months, and regret not having much of an opportunity to post to groupThink. Over the weekend, I decided to try my hand at drawing, and picked up some charcoal and graphite pencils. Since Andrea and I spent our honeymoon in the Bay Area, I decided to pick the Hyde Street Cable Car as my first subject. So far, I have to say I'm quite happy with my work, considering that I've never really tried drawing a picture before. So far, I've spent about five hours on the picture above, mostly while watching Calgary Flames defeat the Ottawa Senators, snapping Ray Emery's NHL record 10 straight wins to start his career, the Detroit Lions lose in overtime to the Green Bay Packers after a bad call on what should've been the winning safety for the Lions. and listening to the Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Anaheim Mighty Ducks 3-2 this evening. I feel like I'm spending a great deal of time on one drawing, but I don't really have anything to gage it against. I'm estimating that I'll be at the ten to fifteen hour mark by the time I'm ready to say it's finished. I'll post an updated copy of the drawing after it is complete. If you'd like to see a slightly higher resolution version of the image, click here (flickr).

I had the opportunity to catch Al Franken live at the Michigan Theatre this past week. It was a very entertaining evening, and I was really planning on posting about the experience immediately after I got home. I was pleasantly surprised that Al Franken put on a full two hour show at the Michigan Theatre, after already hosting a full three hour radio show at the local Air America affiliate earlier in the day. As a devoted listener of the Al Franken show, many of his jokes and topics were very familiar, yet I still found the lecture to be very entertaining and engaging.

The primary focus of the evening was to promote Franken's new book, The Truth (With Jokes), although it did not feel at all like a sales pitch. Franken expounded on topics such as the tragic conditions of the garment industry in Saipan, his take on religion in politics, the Abramoff/Delay scandals, and, of course, the old stand by - the president lying us into the Iraq War.

The most entertaining portion of the night was surprisingly a very lively question and answer period. Generally, Q&A segments are boring, but Franken had great chemistry with the live audience. I believe the Q&A segment lasted a full 45 minutes, and was only interrupted due to the fact that Al still had to sign about 1,000 books, and then get on the road in a snow storm in order to make it to the noon radio show in Chicago the next morning.

There were several moments during the evening that I'd like to quickly point out. First off, towards the beginning of the evening, Al described a section of his book where he had a dream about the future. In that dream, he is describing the past to his (hypothetical) grandchildren. In his dream of the future, Al Franken announces his candidacy for the 2008 Minnesota governors race, and takes the seat away from Norm Coleman. The democrats take back the house in 2006, and the senate in 2008. In the final two weeks of Bush's reign, Franken announces a quicky impeachment hearing, and Bush is impeached...call it poetic justice. Later in the evening, one of the audience members asked Al to spell out his vision for the country. In roughly ten minutes, Al was able to quickly sum up exactly what I would describe as my own ideals for the nation, and more succinctly than I could ever manage to do myself. Franken is a bright mind, has a tremendous vision for our nation, and provides the kind of presence and charisma that is sorely needed in the leadership of our country.

At one point, Franken openly commented on his internal struggle over whether or not he should pursue a political career or continue working at Air America. For now, I believe Al Franken is doing exactly what he should be doing. Air America is an important counterpoint to the rash of conservative talk radio in the nation, and the Al Franken show is a huge part of that. The nation is tiring of the corruption and failure of the Republican party, and continual downward trend this country has taken since Republicans took control of the House, Senate, Supreme Court and Presidency. The pendulum has begun to swing back and is rapidly gaining momentum. The democrats are going to gain a few seats in the 2006 midterm elections - the question is really how many. The democrats need 15 in order to gain a majority. Supposedly, about 50 races are in question, with 28 of those being Republican and 22 Democrat. More than likely, the Democrats will not gain a majority, but closing the gap would go a long way in turning the tide.

By the end of the evening, I left feeling reassured about the future of our nation. Al Franken presented a clearer vision for the future of our country than the George W. Bush-led Republican party could ever hope to present.

Too close for Comfort!

2005-11-19T15:56:00.000-05:00

Michigan has a 21-19 lead, with about five minutes left on the clock. Breaston has come up with two huge plays late in the game, with a fumble recovery, and yet another first down conversion. Theres is not a lot to choose between these two teams today, and another score here would go a long way to ensuring a Wolverines victory.

Michigan Takes the Lead!

2005-11-19T15:23:00.000-05:00

Michigan now leads 18 - 12! A huge two-point conversion on a rush by Henne gives Michigan a 2 field goal lead. Wow - this game is shaping up to be a classic. The underrated Michigan defense is getting the job done in the second half. Breaston now has 6 receptions for 41 yards.

Breaston involved

2005-11-19T14:02:00.000-05:00

A good trend - Henne has found Breaston 4 times in the first half today, which is more receptions than any game so far this year. Breaston hasn't broken loose for a big gain yet, but with Manningham, Avant and Breaston all playing well, the Wolverines look like they are going to be able to keep up with Ohio State.

Touchdown Avant!!

Ohio State 9 - Michigan State 7

For the Wolverines, The big stories from here on out will be:

A) Michigan's defense needs to find a way to stop Troy Smith's offense. The fumble recovery was a great start

B) Michigan needs to establish a run game. Hart is averaging 1.6 yards per carry, with a long of only 4.

Gotta Love Ross Ryan

2005-11-19T13:09:00.000-05:00

In the matchup in Northwestern, Ryan had seven kickoffs without allowing a return. Looks like he's up to it again today, kicking it to back of the endzone. Every time they keep the ball out of Ginn's hands, it's a small victory.

Hart will Start!

2005-11-19T13:02:00.000-05:00

Great news - Well, it was expected, as Carr stated that Hart could've played last week - but it is nice to get the official word from ABC.

Game of the Year

2005-11-19T12:02:00.000-05:00

Michigan vs. Ohio State - Enough said. It's another beautiful day here in Ann Arbor.

Almost every major sporting website has the Michigan-Ohio State matchup featured as their front page article:

http://cbs.sportsline.com/

http://espn.go.com/

http://msn.foxsports.com/

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/front.htm

Well, except for those that somehow feel that discussing the anniversary of the Pistons/Pacers brawl from last year is somehow more important:

http://sports.yahoo.com/

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/

There seems to be no consensus on this game. Vegas has settled on listing Ohio State as three point favorites. Three out of four of CBS Sportline's "experts" have picked Michigan to come out on top. One of the staff on the Michigan's own school paper, the Michigan Daily, went against his own school, although four out the five picked Michigan. USA Today has Ohio State winning easily, 24-10, while Fox Spots has Michigan listed as their favorite.

As you can see, there is no consensus on this matchup. Both teams are coming into this game brimming with confidence, and all you can really predict with confidence is an exciting football game. I expect to see huge games from both Steve Breaston and Ted Ginn, Jr, with 175+ All Purpose Yards and a touchdown from each of them. The return of Michael Hart is going to be huge - I fully expect a 100+ yards rushing from Hart. I believe Michigan's defense in the second half of the season has been underrated, and I fully expect them to be ready for this game. Michigan has handled mobile quarterbacks much better this season, and I don't expect Troy Smith to be as big of a factor as he was last year. In the end, I'm predicting a 38-34 win for Michigan.

People have been giving Michigan State a lot more respect this week than I expected. Vegas has Michigan State listed as 8-point underdogs. On paper, this one looks like a blowout. I would've expected Penn State to be listed as 24-point favorites. All along, I've though that Michigan State has what it takes to pull out a win.

Michigan State did not end up bowl eligible last year, and needs a win today to become bowl eligible. John L. Smith has all kinds of tricks up his sleeve, and I expect him to pull out every trick play you can imagine today. With home field advantage, I believe a hungry Michigan State has what it takes to eke out a win. Expect a huge offensive battle. Final score: Michigan State 41-Penn State 38

Weekend Trifecta

2005-11-14T23:49:00.000-05:00

As a Michigan Wolverines and Toronto Maple Leafs fan, I could not have asked for a better weekend. I had the opportunity to watch the game firsthand, and could not have asked for a better experience. The weather was perfect, and, although the result of this game was never in doubt, the Wolverines did not disappoint.

The career of Steve Breaston has been somewhat of an enigma. In his first two seasons, Breaston exploded on the scene with an arsenal of highlight real punt and kickoff returns, registering a total of 7 touchdowns, including two on the punt return, in his freshman year.

Big things were expected from Steve Breaston in his second season last year. Unfortunately, Breaston had an injury-plagued sophomore season, and managed only four touchdowns. In the final game of the season, Breaston was finally 100% healthy and put together one of the most impressive performances in Rose Bowl history, shattering O.J Simpson's single game record for all purpose yards in the Rose Bowl, with 315 total all purpose yards, including 221 yards on 6 kickoff returns and a touchdown, averaging 26.5 yards for each time he touched the football.

At the start of the 2005 season, with the graduation of Braylon Edwards, Breaston was expected to be promoted to one of two primary receiver slots, alongside of Jason Avant. Early in the season, Carr attempted to establish Breaston as a deep threat, calling his number five or six times in the first few games. Breaston demonstrated the ability to break away from his defenders, but did not seem to connect that well with Henne, as the majority of those deep bombs were falling about 5-6 yards outside of Breaston's reach. Steve did manage to catch a couple of those deep throws, but they were both out of bounds.

Early this season, it appeared that Breaston was just pushing things a little too hard. He is an amazing talented athlete, and he is fearless. In a few of the early games, Steve attempted to make a big play on every single punt/kickoff return, even when there was little to no opportunity of a successful return. I can't remember which game it was, but in one matchup, Breaston was literally hammered four or five times while refusing to call for a fair catch. I have great respect for the competitiveness of Breaston, but I can't help but feel that this approach set him back a little bit.

For the majority of the season, Breaston appeared that he was just a step off of peak form from his freshman season. To me, it seemed like he was playing like he has been hampered by nagging injuries all season, and, until recently, not quite playing to his full potential.

In any case, we longer need to worry about Steve Breaston. In his most dominant performance since the Rose Bowl last season, Breaston managed 201 all purpose yards on just 8 touches in the first half of the Michigan-Indiana matchup. I couldn't have asked for a more exciting performance from my favorite player in my lone visit to the Big House. Everytime a returnable punt was up in the air, I was out of my seat in anticipation before the ball reached his hands, and he did not disappoint, with returns of 46 yards, 54 yards, 25 yards, no gain, and 31 yards. To top it off, Breaston closed out his performance on a receiving touchdown with 29 seconds left in the second quarter.

I'm not sure if Breaston was ever entirely comfortable in the roll of the deep threat wide receiver, although I'd like to see Carr give him at least one more opportunity. I'm curious about Breaston's intentions for next season. In his first year with the Wolverines three years ago, Breaston was listed as a Redshirt freshman, meaning that he has one more year of eligibility. With a healthy Hart and Henne returning for the junior seasons, and the majority of the key players returning, the Wolverines will once again field a competitive team next year. I really hope Breaston decides to return, as we have yet to see what a truly healthy Breaston can bring over the course of an entire season. Given a full healthy season, Breaston may end up smashing many of the NCAA return records, as he has already set several Big Ten career records.

After finishing off the Hoosiers, it was up to Iowa to win on the road in Wisconsin to keep the Wolverine's Big Ten Title hopes alive. I had a lot of faith in the Hawkeyes to get the job done, and they put together a strong second half performance to win 20-10.

This set up two huge final weekend games, with Ohio State visiting Michigan at 1 PM and Penn State visiting Michigan State at 4 PM on Saturday. I have been talking about the slim opportunity of Michigan still winning the Big Ten Championship over a month ago, and I am glad that the title hopes are still alive going into the final week of the season. I believe a surging Michigan will pull out a win against Ohio State, leaving our cross state rivals with the job of finishing the job. Michigan State has 5 wins, and needs the win against Penn State to become Bowl Eligible. A win against Penn State would salvage the season for the Spartans, so look for this team to play as a hungry opponent. The Spartans played very tough against the Wolverines earlier this season, they are at home, and they have a potent offense. Even though they are going to be big underdogs when they announce the line later this week, I think the Spartans have what it takes to play the role of the spoiler.

Finally, to finish off the Trifecta, the Maple Leafs pulled out a 5-4 OT victory over Montreal. It was a cheap way to win, with a too-many-men-on-the-ice call in overtime, but I'll take it :)

Saturday Night Sports Blogging

2005-11-05T18:18:00.000-05:00

It looks like Michigan's Big Ten title hopes are still alive, although we're going to need some help from Michigan State, who completely fell apart after the overtime loss to the Wolverines. It looks like Penn State has the Wisconsin matchup under control, with a 21-0 lead in the 3rd quarter.

In order for Michigan to win sole possession of the big ten title, the following things need to happen:

Penn State needs to win this game against Wisconsin. (Nov 5th)
Michigan needs to win their last two remaining games, against Indiana (Nov 12th) and Ohio State (Nov 19th)
Penn State needs to lose their final Big Ten matchup against Michigan State in Lansing (Nov 19th)
Finally, Wisconsin needs to lose it's final Big Ten matchup against Iowa in Madison (Nov 12th)

If #1-3 occur, we would end up with potentially 5 times tied with a 6-2 record, meaning Michigan would share the Big Ten title, but due to the complex tie-breaker rules, they would be eliminated from BCS bowl-game contention, due to the fact that they lost against Wisconsin. If #4 occurs, Wisconsin falls to 5-3 and it out of the picture. That would leave Michigan, Northwestern, Penn State, and Ohio State tied with 6-2 records, but since Michigan would have beat all three opponents, they would take the BCS bowl bid.

I'm still holding out hope that this might happen, although #2-4 are all huge question marks. Michigan is always in for a battle against Ohio State, but I believe the Wolverines have finally worked out all their kinks, and will win out the season. Michigan State has completely fallen apart since the loss to the Wolverines, going 1-4, with only a win against Indiana. They had a tough schedule, but the loss against Purdue is pretty unforgivable. Still, they are playing at home in the final game of the season, with nothing to lose, and one of the most potent offenses in the league. Finally, I would feel a lot more confident about Iowa beating Wisconsin if the game was in Iowa, but I'm not counting out the Hawkeyes in the this matchup. I believe Wisconsin has played above their heads the entire season, and are due for a letdown after losing this key matchup against Penn State tonight.

I know it's a long shot, but I called it right after the Wolverine's third loss on October 8th, and their is still some hope left :)

BTW, why is Calhoun not listed on ESPN's Heisman Watch? He has two 5 touchdown games this season, and, with 21 touchdowns and 126 points, he has more touchdowns and points than any other player in the country. Wisconsin's entire offense is basically Brian Calhoun (About 90% of all rushing carries and 30% of all receptions)

Random Thoughts:

Sundin's supposed to be back tonight. The Leafs looked pretty good without him for a while, but have barely been holding on for the past two weeks. I taped the 8-0 spanking that Ottawa put on the Leafs, but didn't bother watching it after seeing the score. Yikes! Heatley, Alfredsson and Spezza is probably the best line in the league this year. For the Leafs, the most exciting players on the team in my opinion are the young guys Steen, Stajan and Wellwood. Steen is quickly becoming one of my favorite players - I love him on the PK. The Northeast division is insane -- all teams are playing above .500 right now, but something has to give, since each of those teams have to play each other 8 times :(
Eric Staal is unstoppable this year. The kid is only 21 years old, and if he keeps it up, he's could be challenging Gretzky/Lemieux's #s (or at least Yzerman-type numbers) Staal now has 25 points in 12 games, a hat trick, 2 4-point nights, and 2 3-point nights. Ovechkin and Crosby haven't disappointed, although Ovechkin got snubbed on the September rookie of the month award. (Look for Steen to grab the Rookie of the Month at least once this year)
I hate to say it, but Detroit has been the biggest surprise for me so far - they're pretty much unbeatable. I expected them to falter a little bit after picking up Osgood as their new starter, but I'm glad their finally giving Legace the starting position he so patiently waited for. I guess Nashville and Carolina are generally considered the biggest surprise teams, but I sort of expected both of those teams to do well. Pittsbugh took forever to manage their first win, but with 3 wins in their last 4, they could be back in the playoff picture fairly soon.
I'm very happy to see that my favorite player, Teemu Selanne, is finally back in scoring form. Selanne is leading Anaheim with 9 Goals and 16 Points in 15 games -- not too shabby. Selanne had surgury in the offseason, and is playing with full health for the first time in years. He looks like he is enjoying the game again, and has a pretty competitive team to work with in Anaheim. I stayed up last night to watch the Anaheim/San Jose matchup, but it was a snoozer - I almost regret staying up, as it ended up being a 1-0 final in OT, and I didn't get to see Selanne get any points.
Well, it looks like Wisconsin is finally on the board in the 4th quarter, and wouldn't you know it - #2 Brian Calhoun. Make that 22 touchdowns on the year. Come on' -- Hold on to that 21-7 lead Penn State...

Huge Win at Home! Big Ten Title Hopes Still Alive

2005-10-22T16:30:00.000-04:00

Wow! Another nailbiter for the Wolverines, and they come out on top in overtime. This year has been almost too much for my young heart to take - make it 5 straight games decided by 3 points or less.

Today, my patience with Lloyd Carr ran a little short when the Wolverines had the ball with about 4 minutes left in the game, and went with a very predictable three straight run plays in an effort to run down the clock. Overall, I am a Carr supporter - I agree with 95% of the play calls made by Carr, but I just feel that it is too conservative to go with three straight rushing downs when you have a slim lead, and 3-6 minutes left on the clock. On second or third down, I would go for a playaction pass to move the ball up the field. Iowa ended up with the ball back with 3:25 left on the clock, which is way too much time to give anybody when you're protecting a 3-point lead. Thanks to a timely defensive stop, Iowa was stopped a few yards short of the end zone, and had to settle for a game-tying field goal as the clock expired.

Other than that, I thought the Wolverines played a strong game today, and am very happy that they were able to go into a very difficult road matchup against Iowa, and come away with a victory. Iowa had a 22-game home winning streak going, and the Hawkeyes had not lost at home since 2001.

I'm glad to see that my favorite player, Steve Breaston, has finally broken out of his early-season slump over the past few games. Two weeks ago, Breaston broke out with 185 yards on 5 kickoff returns, including a 95-yard kickoff return against Minnesota. Last week, Breaston delivered with several key kickoff returns for good field position, including a return to the 46-yard line with 42 seconds remaining, allowing the Wolverines to set up the game-winning touchdown. Today, Breaston made his first big receiving play, a 52 touchdown reception, which allowed Michigan to take their first lead, with 8:51 left in the 4th quarter.

Unfortunately, Mike Hart was re-injured early in the game, with what looked like a sprained ankle. He attempted to continue playing with the ankle taped up, but was unable to continue. Kevin Grady and Jerome Jackson did an admirable job filling in for Hart, and Jackson scored the eventual game-winning touchdown. Unfortunately, Michigan is simply a different team with Hart is not in the game. Hart is such a huge force, and having him in the game takes a lot of pressure off of Henne, as the defense must continually account for Hart. Hopefully, the injury is a simple ankle sprain, and Hart is back in the lineup next weekend against Northwestern. If not, I thought Jackson showed some promise in today's game, and should be given consideration as the primary running back next week.

It's a tough call on who should fill in for Hart. Grady and Hart are the future of this team. Grady has settled down, and seemed to have resolved his tendency to fumble the ball early in the season. Grady is an powerful force, and the combination of Hart and Grady is enough to wear down any defensive line. I haven't seen the explosiveness in Grady that allowed him to set so Michigan high school records last year. As such, I don't think he has quite the same unsettling affect on opposing defenses that Hart does. Gray is young, and will continue to develop in his role as secondary running back behind Michael Hart. We've seen flashes of brilliance from Max Martin, who had a couple great games against Eastern Michigan and Wisconsin earlier this season, but has somewhat disappeared since, with only one touch in the last four games. Jerome Jackson has been impressive in his limited appearences this season, with 57 yards on only 11 carries this season.

I thought Henne played a pretty strong game today. Henne finished with 14/21, with 206 yards passing, two touchdowns and one interception. The interception was at least partially due to a bad route run by freshman Mario Manningham, but the pass didn't really look like it was delivered correctly either. Early in the game, it looked like Henne was back to his habit of overthrowing receivers, but once he settled down, he was quite accurate in his passing, and demonstrated some mature decision making.

The good news is that Michigan's slim Big Ten title chances are still alive. With the Iowa loss, there are now four teams remaining with 1 conference loss (Penn State, Wisconsin, Northwestern, and Ohio State) Next week, Michigan plays the suprising Northwestern Wildcats, who shocked the #14 ranked Wisconsin Badgers two weeks ago with a 51-48 upset, defeated Purdue last week, and destroyed the slumping Michigan State Spartans 49-14. If Michigan can win at home versus the Wildcats next weekend, only three teams will remain with one loss. The Wolverines then need to hope that Wisconsin and Penn State both lose a game. Since the Badgers and Nittany Lions play each other in two weeks, we are guarenteed that at least one of those teams will lose one. The other opportunities for a loss are Penn State vs. Purdue on 10/29, Penn State at Michigan State on 11/19 and Wisconsin vs. Iowa on 11/12.

Pending losses for both Penn State and Wisconsin, we could see yet another Big Ten-title implication game between Michigan and Ohio State in the final week of the year. There is a slim chance that we could see three or four teams all knotted up with two losses each. Generally, tie-breakers are decided by head-to-head matchups, but what happens if Penn State, Wisconsin, Ohio State and Michigan all end up tied at 6-2, after a Penn State win over Wisconsin? Wisconsin would have the tie-breaker over Michigan, Penn State would have the tie-breaker over Wisconsin, and Michigan would have the tie-breaker over Penn State, and both Michigan and Penn State would have the tie-breaker over Ohio State. If that is the case, there is no clear winner.

I decided to consult the official tie-breaker rule set from the Big Ten Rulebook. It looks like this is the rule that would decide it:

c) If three of the four teams defeated the fourth team, the fourth team is eliminated, and the remaining three teams shall revert to the three team tie procedure.

d) If there is a tie game between two of the four teams, or if two of the four teams did not play each other, the representative shall be determined on a percentage of all games played in the traditional 11-game, or in certain years (2002 and 2003) 12-game schedule.

Given this hypothetical situation, Ohio State would be first eliminated by rule #7c, with losses to both Penn State and Michigan . If that's the case, it looks like the championship tiebreaker would be between Wisconsin and Penn State, since both had perfect non-conference schedules this season, while Michigan lost to Notre Dame early this season. Penn State went 3-0, while Wisconsin is currently 3-0, but has one final non-conference matchup scheduled at Hawaii on 11/25. Could that seemingly inconsequential game have implications on the Big Ten title?

Actually, upon further consideration, these rules are simply used to determine the BCS-bowl representive, and not necessarily the actual Big Ten champion. Would all four teams be consided co-Big Ten Champions? Does anybody know the correct answer to the question? I guess another Big Ten title would be enough consolation for the Michigan Wolverines, as it looks like they have little to no chance of actually getting a BCS bowl birth, since the next tie-breaker rule automatically eliminates the Wolverines:

5) If there is still a tie, the most recent team earning BCS automatic selection shall be eliminated.

Crosby on OLN Tonight

2005-10-10T11:05:00.000-04:00

OLN will be broadcasting an intriguing game tonight, with Pittsburgh facing off against Buffalo. This will be the first chance to catch Sidney Crosby, Thomas Vanek and Ryan Miller on national TV. So far, Crosby has not disappointed, as he is tied for fourth in league scoring with a 1 goal and 4 assists in 3 games. So far, things haven't gone the Pens way, as they have only two points, with one regulation time loss and two overtime losses in three games. On Saturday, Crosby scored to give the Pens a 6-4 lead late in the second period, but in this high scoring NHL, 6 goals wasn't enough, as the Bruins scored twice in the third, and put it away in overtime.

Ryan Miller had an impressive preseason for the Buffalo Sabres, as they went 6-2, with Miller finishing with 4 wins, a .945 save percentage and a 1.75 GAA. In the regular season, Miller has cooled off a bit, and is 2-1, with 3.33 GAA and .897% save percentage.

The other exciting rookie playing for the Sabres is Thomas Vanek, who finished with 5 goals and 3 assists in 6 preseason games. In the first three regular season games, Vanek has 2 assists.

For me, tonight's game is all about witnessing the future of the NHL. There will be three potential Calder candidates on the ice. (For me, the Calder battle is wide open this season, but, for me, the front runners are Sidney Crosby, Alexander Ovechkin, Ryan Miller, Thomas Vanek, Jeff Carter, Mike Richards, Kari Lehtonen, and I guess I have to include surprise candidate Brandon Bochenski in the group)

I have to say I'm excited for the Pittsburgh Penguins lineup this year, and I would like to see Mario Lemieux put in a strong performance on national TV tonight.

NHL Eastern Conference Preview

2005-10-06T22:32:00.000-04:00

#1. Philadelphia - My first instinct was to give Ottawa the number one seed in the Eastern Conference. But, upon second thought, I'm going with the Flyers. Ottawa has 24 combined games against Toronto, Boston, and Montreal. I consider the Northeast to be the toughest division in the league, as even Buffalo is not going to be an easy matchup, given the way Ryan Miller and Thomas Vanek have been playing so far this year.

Anyways, the Flyers have assembled a very solid offensive cast - I consider the Flyers to have the strongest forward group in the league. When he's healthy, Peter Forsberg is the most dominant player in the league. If Forsberg can remain healthy for at least 65 games this season, the Flyers should finish first in the Eastern Conference during the regular season.

Rookies Jeff Carter, Mike Richards and Antero Niitymaki will play a significant role for the Flyers this season. Carter, a former Soo Greyound, led the AHL in scoring with 23 points in 21 games during the post season, after being called up when the Greyhounds were eliminated. Carter will play on the Flyer's first line with Forsberg and Simon Gagne. Carter was held soreless during the preseason, although rumor has it that he is currently suffering from a bout of mono.

Mike Richards finished a close second behind Carter in AHL playoff scoring last season, and managed to collect 9 points in only 7 games during the preseason. The duo of Richards and Jon Sim lit it up during the preseason, although word has it that Sim is known to regularly dominate during the preseason, and fade quickly after the regular season begins.

In Goal, rookie Niitymaki, who put up great numbers in the AHL last season, will server as backup to Robert Esche. Goaltending is really Philadelphia's biggest question mark, as neither Niitymaki or Esche have experience as a full-time starter in the NHL, although Esche did split the 2003-04 season, playing 40 games for the Flyers.

#2. Ottawa Senators - The Ottawa Senators have perhaps the most complete lineup in the NHL. The top line of Heatly, Spezza and Bochenski is potent. Spezza and rookie Brandon Bochenski played together for Binghampton in the AHL last year, and teamed up with newcomer Danny Heatly for perhaps the most explosive line during the preseason.

The Sens have a dominant defensive unit, with Norris runner up Zdeno Chara, Wade Redden and Chris Phillips.

The Senators goaltending tandom is ultimately going to decide the fate of the Ottawa Senators. After playing on 14 games in the last three years, 40-year old Dominik Hasek may still have what it takes to be the most dominent goalie in the league, although he will likely play in somewhere around 60 games this year, given his age and his most recent injury-plagued season. The Sens are also going to rely on rookie backup goalie Ray Emery, who will likely play between 20-25 games this season.

#3. Atlanta Thrashers - I am tentatively giving the Thrashers the third playoff seed, with the assumption that Ilya Kovalchuk will be signed sometime soon. If Kovalchuck is not signed, Tampa Bay will win the division, and Atlanta will fall all the way to the ninth seed, with Florida moving up to the eighth and final playoff spot.

The Thrashers have quietly assembled a playoff calibur roster, but they will look silly if they fail to sign Kovalchuk after spending too much money signing Bobby Holik. The Thrashers traded away one of their young franchise players in Danny Heatly, but were able to pick up star Marian Hossa and Greg De Vries in the trade. Atlanta has some decent depth at forward, with Marian Hossa, Peter Bondra, Marc Savard, Bobby Holik, and Slava Kozlov. If you Kovalchuk to this mix, they start to look pretty dangerous.

The Thrashers defense is decent, but nothing spectacular.

In goal, Thrashers fans have reason to be excited, as the much anticipated 2nd overall draft pick from 2002, Kari Lehtonen, will share goaltending duties with Mike Dunham. Lehtonen has put up amazing numbers playing for Jokerit in Finland, and the Chicago Wolves in the AHL.

I will reiterate - the fate of the Atlanta Thrashers lies entirely in how they handle the Kovalchuk signing. Kovalchuk is one of the top three players in the league. After spending $4.25 million per year on Holik, there is no reason not to offer Kovalchuk the league maximum $7.8 million salary. If Kovalchuk is not signed, the Thrashers do not make the playoffs.

#4. Toronto Maple Leafs - There are a lot of question marks surrounding the Toronto Maple Leafs this season. The Leafs lost Roberts, Mogilny, Niewendyk, Nolan, Leetch, Renberg and Reichel during the offseason. In response, the Leafs signed Eric Lindros, Jason Allison, Jeff O'Neill, Alexander Khavanov, and will also rely heavily on rookies Alexander Steen, Mikael Tellqvist, Andy Wozniewski, Carlo Colaiacovo, and Kyle Wellwood.

The question marks concern the health of aging veterans Eric Lindros, Jason Allison, and 40-year old goaltender Ed Belfour. The Leafs backup goalie, Mikael Tellqvist, has played well in international play for Team Sweden, but does not have significant experience at the NHL level. Belfour is a fierce competetor, but due to nagging back problems, the Leafs will likely call upon Tellqvist to play about 20 games this season. Lindros, Allison and O'Neill all signed with Toronto because of lifelong dreams of playing for the Maple Leafs. As such, these players are all driven to play the most inspired hockey of their careers.

With captain Mats Sundin leading the way, the Leafs are the most stacked team in the league at center, with Sundin, Lindros, Allison, Matt Stajan, and Kyle Wellwood. Since a team can only play four centers, there is a chance that one of Lindros or Sundin may be moved to the wing to make room for Wellwood on the fourth line.

On defense, the Leafs have perhaps the most offensive lineup in the League. In the last NHL season, the Leafs led the league in points from defenseman, and with offensive-minded newcomers Khavanov and Carlo Colaiacovo, that trend is not likely to change. WIth the new offensive orientation of the league, the Leafs have the potential to lead the league in team scoring. With Belfour in net, the Leafs may give up a lot of shots, but the combination of scoring depth and goaltending will be enough to keep this team playoff-bound in the competitive Northeast division.

#5. Boston Bruins - The Bruins made a lot of roster moves in the offseason. The Bruins signed Brian Leetch on defense, and forwards Alexei Zhamnov, Shawn McEachern, and Dave Scatchard, while trading for Brad Isbister. Joe Thornton, Sergei Samsonov, and Glen Murray will continue to dominate the league offensively, as one of the most dominant lines in hockey. Sophomore Patrice Bergeron showcased some amazing talent during the preseason, and scored two highlight reel goals on the shootout.

In Goal, the Bruins will have a one-two punch of Andrew Raycroft and rookie Hannu Toivonen. Toivonen, along with Lehtonen, continues the trend of higly touted Finnish goaltenders, started by Mikka Kiprusoff and Vesa Toskala a few years back. Raycroft played well in his last season with Boston, and will likely continue a high level of play this season.

Boston will play in the highly competitive Northeast division, and will likely finish neck-and-neck with the Toronto Maple Leafs.

#6. Tampa Bay Lightning - I dropped Tampa Bay back a few spots, since they were unable to retain the services of goaltender Nikolai Khabibulin. Tampa Bay has perhaps the most exciting young roster in the league, with the amazing trio of Vincent Lecavalier, Brad Richards, and MVP Martin St. Louis. It was the expense of maintaining this explosive trio that led the lightning to lose the true MVP of the 2004 Stanley Cup Playoffs, goaltender Nikolai Khabibulin.

I fully expect the Tampa Bay Lightning to play the same brand of exciting hockey that led them to win the Stanley Cup in 2004. Coach John Tortorella sure knows how to motivate this young team.

Goaltenders Sean Burke and John Grahame are both capable NHL starters, but neither can steal the show quite as often as the 'Bulin wall did during the 2003-04 season. Sean Burke has had a very succesful career up to this point, and should help keep the Lightning competitive. Again, if Atlanta fails to sign Kovalchuk, I believe the Lightning will win the Southeast division, and move up to the 3rd playoff seeding in the Eastern Conference.

#7. Pittsburg Penguins - Mario Lemieux finished with 11 points in only 4 preseason games, and looks to be playing his most inspired hockey in almost a decade. Lemieux is 40 years old, and is likely playing the last season of his career. With the role of mentoring rookie sensation Sidney Crosby, look for Lemieux to give his all during perhaps his farewell NHL tour. With free agent signings Zigmund Palffy, John Leclair, Mark Recchi, and Sergei Gonchar, the Penguins have an amazingly potent offensive lineup. The Pens may well lead the league in goals for.

There are big questions marks on defense, but I feel this team will try to win every game by simply outscoring the opposition, instead of trying to play defense. Goaltenders Jocelyn Thibault and Marc-Andre Fleury will share starting duties, and should play well enough to keep this team in the game. Expect a lot of exciting 5-4 games.

#8. Montreal Canadians - With Goaltender Jose Theadore in net, the Canadians will be competitive in every game the play. The Canadians have a young, fast team, led by captain Saku Koivu, talented winger Alexei Kovalev, and former Senator Radek Bonk.

Unfortunately for the Canadians, 24 of their games will come against the Ottawa Senators, Boston Bruins, and Toronto Maple Leafs. Something has to give, and, the Canadians will likely get the short end of the divisional stick. Montreal should have what it takes to make the playoffs, but will have to final for one of the final playoff spots with Pittsburg, New Jersey, Buffalo, and Carolina.

#9. New Jersey Devils - It might appear that I have the perennial playoff-bound Devils ranked a little. Maybe it's my preconceived prejudice against the defensive-oriented approach of the Devils, but I just don't think they are going to thrive in the new NHL. With the loss of the Scotts (Neidermeyer and Stevens), the Devils have a couple huge holes to fill.

The Devils signed defensemen Dan McGillis and Vladamir Malakhov, along with talented right winger Alexander Mogilny. At a glance, it appears that the Devils may have overspent on all three contracts, putting them over the maximum salary cap by several million dollars. For now, the Devils are below the salary cap, but as soon as Patrick Elias is ready to return, the Devils will need to unload a couple players to get back below the salary cap. Look for the Devils to unload winger Jeff Freisen and Viktor Kozlov later this season for next to nothing, as they will be put in the unfortunate situation of being forced to deal to get under the cap.

With the best goaltender in the NHL over the past decade in Martin Brodeur, the Devils will remain competitive, and Coach Larry Robinson will do his best to adapt his team to the new-look NHL. This team has been perhaps the most competitive team in the NHL over the past decade, and they may well remain near the top of the Eastern conference, but I feel that this team will need to change their strategy to a more offensive approach in order to do so.

#10. Buffalo Sabres - The Buffalo Sabres could perhaps squeeze into the final playoff spot if they were to play in a less competitive division. Given that 32 games will be played against one of the Ottawa Senators, Toronto Maple Leafs, Boston Bruins, and Montreal Canadians, the odds are stacked against this team.

This team was explosive during the preseason, finishing with a 6-2 record. Explosive rookies center Thomas Vanek and goaltender Ryan Miller will go a long way in determining the success of the Buffalo Sabres. Miller had a great preseason, with a .945% save percentage, and a 4-0 record.

The Sabres have a lot of speed up front, with Daniel Briere, Vanek, Chris Drury, Maxim Afinogenov, J.P. Dumont, and Jochen Hecht. The Sabres have a young, exciting team, and should be competitive in the new look NHL.

#11. Carolina Hurricanes - Carolina is another young and exciting team that will be competitive in the new NHL. This team is lead by youngsters Joseph Vasicek, Eric Cole, and Eric Stall, along with veterans Cory Stillman, Ray Whitney, Glen Wesley and Rod Brind'Amour.

The goaltending tandom of former Anaheim backup Martin Gerber and rookie Cam Ward is sure to be tested this season. Gerber put up some good numbers while playing behind J.S. Giguere in Anaheim, and we will quickly learn how much that had to do with defensive system of the Mighty Ducks. Cam Ward had an amazing season with Lowell of the AHL last season, and will have a chance to impress at the NHL level this season.

#12. Florida Panthers - The Panthers are a bit of a puzzle to me, and they could end up finishing anywhere between eigth and thirteenth in the conference. Led by Olli Jokinen, along with newly signed veterans Jozef Stumpel, Gary Roberts and Joe Nieuwendyk, the Panthers have an intersting mix of veteran leadership and youth.

Starting in goal, with Roberto Lungo, along with defencemen Jay Bouwmeester and Mike Van Ryan, along with forwards Kristian Huselius, Nathan Horton, and Anthony Stewart, the Panthers have perhaps the most talented group of young players in the league.

With Mike Keenan coaching this team, there is no telling whether this team will succeed under his direction, our implode under the pressure of Iron Mike.

#13. New York Islanders - The Islanders really don't have a lot going for them. The signing of winger Miroslav Satan, Center Mike York, and defensemen Alexei Zhitnik should help this team somewhat, but the losses of Adrian Aucoin, Michael Peca, Roman Hamrlik, David Scatchard and Mariusz Czerkawski are likely to more than offest the additions.

In order for the Islanders to go anywhere, young goalie Rick DiPietro and underacheiving center Alexei Yashin will both need to play to their talent levels. I'm sorry, but there really isn't anything much to be excited about here.

#14. New York Rangers - The Rangers are the perenial whipping boys of the NHL. Gone are the days of the $80 Million payroll. Instead, the Rangers will need to learn how to rebuild using the draft and rookie development. Gone are Bobby Holik to Atlanta, Eric Lindros to Toronto, Mark Messier and Pavel Bure to retirement, and young goalie Dan Blackburn, who retired due to injury.

Jaromir Jagr will lead this team, which, on paper, looks a lot less talented than the New York Rangers we were used to throughout the nineties. Rookie defenseman Fedor Tyutin should provide some excitement for Rangers fans, although it doesn't look like there is much else to be to happy about.

#15. Washington Capitals - The Capitals have the best chance to spoil Sidney Crosby's bid for Rookie of the Year, in Alexander Ovechkin. Washington failed to make any major offseason moves, and really doesn't have an NHL-caliber roster. There are probably some AHL teams that could give the Capitols a run for their money, and I'm not really sure what this organization is planning.

Goaltender Olaf Kolzig will probably be traded at some point during the season. We may not see very many trading deadling moves this year, given the salary cap restrictions, but I really don't see the Capitols holding onto Kolzig through the entire season, once it is apparant that the season is lost.

Colaiacovo and Kronwall Recalled

2005-10-04T13:38:00.000-04:00

Looks like the Leafs are going to dress a rookie-filled lineup to start the season against the Senators on Wednesday. For some reason, Andy Wozniewski initially beat out Colaiacovo for the 6th defenseman role in the Leafs lineup, while Kronwall and Colaiacovo were sent down to the Marlies initially. It turns out that Klee, Berg, and Belak are all injured now, so they recalled Colaiacovo and Kronwall the next day. It's now up to Colaiacovo to make the best of this opportunity, and convince Quinn that he is ready to play in the NHL. It looks like the opening day roster for the Leafs will include six rookies: Steen, Wellwood, Wozniewski, Kronwall, Colaiacovo, and Tellqvist. Wellwood is the 13th/14th forward, and probably will not play unless someone else is injured. The forward lineup is likely to be:

Antropov - Sundin - Ponikarovsky
Tucker - Allison - Czerkawski
Steen - Stajan - O'Neil
Domi - Lindros - Kilger

Spares: Wellwood/Wilm

I love the 1-2-3 lines, although I feel bad for Lindros. If I had my way, I'd replace Kilger with Wellwood, and all would be good. Although Domi is known mostly as a pugalist, he does have some decent speed, and scored 15 goals a few years ago. The Steen/Stajan/O'Niel is flying right now. Antropov, Tucker, and O'Neil have been the best Leafs in the preseason, so it's nice to see balance in these lines. The SkyLine is huge - Sundin 6'5 Antropov 6'6 Ponikarovsky 6'4. The Tucker/Allison/Czerkawski line has the most pure offensive talent.

Until Klee is ready to play, the defense is going to have too much inexperience. Something like this:

kaberle mccabe
khavanov kronwall
coliaicovo wozniewski

Injured: Klee, Belak, Berg

Overall, I think the Leafs might have the best offensive lineup in the league, when you consider that McCabe, Kaberle and Khavanov will probably all finish in the top 40 in league defensive scoring. The biggest weakness is on defense, where the Leafs will likely continue their trend of giving up 30+ shots a game. If Belfour can still play at a high level, the Leafs should play well enough to finish with near 100 points, and a 4th-5th placing in the Eastern conference.

Michigan Pulls Out The Win

2005-10-01T17:00:00.000-04:00

Well, I managed to call the spread exactly, forecasting a 31-28 Michigan victory, which turned out to be the true margin of victory, as Michigan pulled out a 34-31 overtime win. The difference today was Michael Hart. The Michigan defense has played well enough to win each of the last three games, but the offence has been sputtering. Hart truly is an impressive athlete, and this offensive threat was the missing element for the Wolverines over the past three weeks.

Does Michigan have what it takes to salvage this season? With a healthy Hart, the Wolverines have what it takes to run the table and win the last six games of the season, which should be enough to win the Big Ten title, but they have put themselves in a tough situation. The next three games don't get much easier, with matchups against Minnesota, Penn State, and Iowa. Penn State just pulled off a big 44-14 victory of Minnesota today, and is a perfect 5-0, so that game is not going to be an automatic.

I still think that ruled fumble on the Henne pass was a bad call, but after reviewing the official NCAA rule book, if there is contact during the backward motion of the pass (which there was), it should be ruled a fumble. In any case, Michigan pulled out the win, so I guess I don't have to anguish over it.

Bad Call - Incomplete Pass

2005-10-01T15:11:00.000-04:00

The referees just made what was in my judgement, a bad call in the Michigan - Michigan State football game. Chad Henne's arm was obviously in forward motion when the ball left his hands. I have no idea how the video review did not interpret this as an incomplete pass instead of a fumble. An incomplete pass would have given Michigan a 4th down, a field goal, and a 34-24 lead. Instead, the score is tied 31-31. This was a ten-point decision by the referees. Let's see how this thing unfolds. The entire Michigan season is on the line with the remaining 4:45. So far, Mike Hart has been the difference so far. 4th in inches -- ball to Hart.

And so it begins....

2005-10-01T12:24:00.000-04:00

Michigan is now up 7-0 on a first quarter touchdown pass to Jason Avant. Last season's game Michigan-Michigan State matchup was an instant classic, with Michigan winning in triple overtime, after a 17-point fourth-quarter comeback, led by Braylon Edwards.

Today's game is shaping up to another classic. Michigan State started strong, punting and putting Michigan State on their own 2-yard line. Thanks to a 44-yard run by Mike Hart, Michigan completed a 98-yard drive to take an early 7-0 lead.

Michigan's defense looks hungry and up-to-the task today, after forcing Stanton to scramble several times in his first two possessions., and collecting one sack for a 13-yard loss.

The return of Mike Hart and the strong play of the defense should be enough to give the Wolverines the push they need to defeat the Spartans. I'm predicting a 31-28 win by the Wolverines.

Leafs lose 5-2, but at least Domi Wins the Shootout

2005-09-27T22:34:00.000-04:00

It's not much of a consolation after a 5-2 loss to the Sabres, but the Leafs can at least take some solace in the result of the post-game shootout. During the game, the Leafs ran into a very hot Ryan Miller, who CBS Sportsline has listed as the current league leader in save %, at .970.

It took sixteen shooters in the post-game shootout, before the Leafs finally won it on Domi's goal. Ed Belfour was a perfect 8-for-8 on the shootout, although he did let in 5 goals during the game. 4 of the regulation time goals came on the powerplay, as Buffalo was 4-for-12. Ryan Miller was 7-for-8, before giving up the goal to Domi.

For the second time, Leafs fans booed Nikolai Antropov when he stepped on the ice during the shootout. Showing his good nature, Antropov waved the booing crowd on, encouraging them to continue. THIS HAS TO STOP! Antropov has been arguably the best Leaf player during the preseason, is a hard-worker, a great penalty killer, and is ready to step his game up to the next level, now that his knees have had time to heal up.

As far as the Leafs on the bubble go, it looks like Kyle Wellwood, Alexander Steen, Steve Thomas, Nathan Perrot, Clark Wilm, Matthew Stajan, and Chad Kilger are battling for the final three roster positions at forward; Bryan Marchment, Carlo Colaiacovo, and Staffan Kronwall are battling for the 6th and 7th defensive spots (With Belak seeming like a lock for the 8th defensive spot, given the one-way contract and the way Quinn and Ferguson have spoken about him), while Tellqvist and Racine are battling it out for the backup goalie position.

At the forward position, Wellwood is making a great case for himself to stick with the big club. Matthew Stajan earned his spot on the roster after a tremendous rookie season with limited playing time, and should stick with the club. I would really like to see Wellwood and Stajan make the big club this year. I'm torn on the final spot, although I'd like to see one of Steen, Thomas, Kilger or Wilm in the position. Steen has been playing some decent defensive hockey, and has shown that he is ready to play in the NHL, but with limited North American hockey experience, he could use a year playing on the first line for the Marlies. I'd like to see Thomas in the Leafs uniform again, but it's hard to make the decision to give Thomas the nod over a player like Steen. For me, if the choice was between Thomas, Kilger and Wilm, it would be a tossup, as each brings a slightly different skillset to the team.

On defense, I'm guessing we will see Colaiacovo and Marchment make the club as the 6th and 7th defensemen. Kronwall shows that he is ready for league, and should get some time in with the big club this season, but would do well to put in a full season with first line minutes with the Marlies.

In goal, I am somewhat between the choice of Tellqvist and Racine. Tellqvist has performed well in international play for Team Sweden, and has played well in stretches in the AHL. Is Tellqvist ready for a full season with the Leafs? The mitigating factor is that the Leafs are going to be playing in a tough Eastern Conference race for a playoff spot, and every game of the season will be critical. With newly drafted Tuukka Rask coming up the pipeline, and a 40-year old most likely in his last season with the Leafs, it's time for the 25-year old Tellqvist to show what he can do in the league. In my opinion, Tellqvist has shown patience with the Leafs organization, and I believe that they should reward him with a full season as the backup to show what he can do.

Mixed Results - Ottawa 5 Toronto 2

2005-09-18T23:30:00.000-04:00

Toronto got off to a strong start, with a 2-0 lead over the Senators after one period, but eventually tailed off, losing by a final score of 5-2. I didn't actually watch, but was able to listen to the game on Mojo Radio. I'm hoping that TSN will put up some video highlights from the game, but I don't see anything yet.

On the positive side, it sounded like several Leaf players, including Antropov, Ponikarovsky, Steen and Kronwall had strong performances. This bodes well for the future of the Maple Leafs. On the negative side, Toronto had eight penalties to kill, including three minor penalties called against Wade Belak, plus a couple Too Many Men on the Ice calls.

On the plus side, the Leafs were able to come out with a minor moral victory, as they won the shootout 2-0. Both Mats Sundin and Eric Lindros scored for the Leafs, while Alfreddson and Heatly were both stopped by J.S. Aubin.

I was a somewhat torn watching this game, as my former hometown goalie, Ray Emery, was between the pipes for Ottawa. I was a huge fan of Emery while watching him develop playing for the Sault Greyhounds a few years back. Emery has done everything asked of him while playing for Binghampton, and is slotted to be the backup goaltender behind Hasek as the season begins. In tonight's game, Emery stopped 19 of 21 shots, before giving up the two goals in the post-game shootout. Emery is an incredibly athletic goaltender, with a mean streak, and a penchant for getting into a few altercations a year, which is a little unusual for a goaltender, although the NHL has had it's share of chippy goaltenders in the past (Ron Hextall and Billy Smith come to mind) In any case, I wish the best of luck to Emery, but all bets are off when he's up against the Leafs.

He Shots, He Scores!!

2005-09-18T20:15:00.000-04:00

Hockey is officially back in business. The first preseason game was played on Friday evening, and the Toronto Maple Leafs just finished the first period of their first game in over two years. I'm listening to the play-by-play on mojo 640. The Toronto Maple Leafs are currently ahead perennial division rivals, the Ottawa Senators, 2-0. The two players I expect to have breakout seasons, Nik Antropov and Alexei Ponikarovsky have both scored. Nik Antropov scored a goal, assisted by Sundin and McCabe. Ponikarovsky scored a shorthanded goal on a two-on-one with Antropov with 14 seconds remaining in the first period.

From what I've heard following message boards, like the Hockey's Future boards, Nik Antropov has been possibly the most impressive player in Leafs camp. Jeff O'Neill has been impressing everybody with his play in camp. There are several young players that have been impressive. Carlo Colaiacovo is expected to make the team as the number six defenseman. Alexander Steen has been rooming with Mats Sundin, and there is an outside chance he could play on Sundin's line this season. On defense, Staffan Kronwall, has impressed, and is competing for a spot on the team with Wade Belak, Brad Brown, and Bryan Marchment. Other players competing for a spot on the team are fan-favourite Steve Thomas, youngster Brad Leeb, along with goalies Mikael Tellqvist and J.S. Aubin, competing for the backup spot.

Personally, I'm hoping the Leafs make a commitment towards developing their youth. They've done a great job sticking with Antropov, who is still only 23, Ponikarovsky, Kaberle, and Matthew Stajan. I'm hoping that Kronwall cracks the lineup, and Steen plays on one of the top three forward lines. I also hope that they sign Thomas, who has played his heart out in training camp.

I really hope the league sticks with the planned crackdown on interference and clutch and grab hockey. For the first few weeks of preseason, there is going to be some complaining, from both fans and players. In the Carolina/Florida game, Florida managed to receive 17 penalty calls, but somehow came away with a 5-4 overtime win. Carolina managed to score only two powerplay goals, going 2-for-16. Florida was 1-for-7 on the powerplay. I'm sure a game with 24 penalties called must have been frustrating for the fans.

The league has to stick with it, though. Give them a few weeks, and the players will figure it out. The clutch-and-grabbing will stop, and decade-long reign of New Jersey Devils-inspired trap hockey will come to an end. This is an exciting time for the NHL, and it's time to officially do away with the trap.

Which Michigan will we see today?

2005-09-17T12:10:00.000-04:00

It looks like Michigan is missing five starters to injury. The offensive line is again missing several starters, and they will be without Tim Massaquoi and Mike Hart again today.

The key question is how Chad Henne will respond after a poor performance last week. In the previous game, Henne looked distracted and made many poor decisions throughout the game. I think we will see a resurgent Henne today. I can't see Henne allowing himself to play two poor games in a row. Look for Henne to rely on his big receivers, Jason Avant and Steve Breaston a lot more today.

I'm guessing that Kevin Grady will get the start at running back today. Eastern Michigan is a smaller team, so this should be a good chance for Grady to pick up some confidence in playing college-level football.

On the defense, I really hope we see the same level of performance that we saw in the second half of the game against Notre Dame, where they gave up only 57 yards. Eastern Michigan's quarterback, Bohnet, is supposed to be yet another mobile quarterback, with over 5 yards rushing per carry. Michigan needs to stop the run today.

Wow -- what a run by Steve Breaston on that punt return. It looked like he didn't have much to work with, but he weaved and bobbed his way all they way to the ten yard line. That's what I'm talking about.

I guess I was wrong about Grady - Max Martin got the start, and just scored the first TD of the game. Michigan has some great depth at running back, and it's probably a good idea to patient with Kevin Grady.

My Podsafe Music

2005-09-12T19:49:00.000-04:00

I uploaded some of my songs to the Podsafe Music Network over the weekend. I first heard about the Podsafe Music Network on Adam Curry's Daily Source Code, which I started listening to about two weeks ago.

From Wikipedia's entry on podcasting:

The growing popularity produced specialties, including the "podsafe" category, which refers to a track that is legal for use on a podcast, usually because the band or artist is not signed to a major label and they (or their label) has given consent for their work to be redistributed via podcast or the recording was made under the Creative Commons license. However, the mere fact that an artist is not signed to a major label does not automatically mean that they have given consent for their work to be podcast. See also Copyright.

At podsafe sites artists can submit podsafe tracks and podcasters can sign up to get music for their shows.

To check out my music at the Podsafe Music Network, click on the link below:

Frustrating Day for Michigan

2005-09-10T17:04:00.000-04:00

Is this the same Hawaii that defeated Michigan State 41-38 last year? Right now, it's 28-0 Michigan State, and it doesn't really like Hawaii deserves to even be on the same field. Mind you, this football game is rather entertaining - Michigan State's offense looks very impressive, with quite a few long plays already in the first half. Hawaii's offense is doing their part to keep the game entertaining, rotating two quarterbacks and running a stranger combination of plays than even John L. Smith would dream of. This is really starting to look like playground football.

So, Michigan lost against Notre Dame 17-10. So, what happened? The combination of strong play calling by Charlie Weiss, the absence of Michael Hart, and the missing players on Michigan's offensive line were just too much to overcome. Weiss made the right call by putting together an impressive array of no-huddle offensive sets to start the game, and quickly jumped to an early lead, which effectively took the crowd out of the game.

The absence of Michael Hart allowed Notre Dame to focus on Henne, and with several starters missing from the offensive line, the Irish defensive line were able to penetrate way too often, and the result was 2 sacks, 5 blocked passes, and a generally distracted Chad Henne.

I thought Michigan's defense actually played quite a strong game today. They had a difficult time on Notre Dame's first two offensive sets, where they couldn't even manage to force a third down. But once Weiss' first few planned sets, the Michigan defense held the line quite well. If you look at the numbers, Michigan dominated in the second half.

The difference really came down to a few key plays. Michigan was in the red zone three times, and came away scoreless, with a fumble, an interception, and a turnover on downs. Henne was unable to turn to Michael Hart, and the weak offensive line proved to be the difference.

Overall, I was somewhat disappointed with Henne's performance today. Henne was a combined 19-44, which just isn't good enough. With strong coverage on Avant and Breaston all day long, and Massaquoi out of the game Henne was consistently looking for secondary targets, like Tyler Ecker, Dutch, and Massey. With the game on the line, Henne failed to give the ball to his primary receivers, and often overthrew his receivers, threw the ball out of play, or feebly attempted to rush a few yards up field. Henne isn't a very mobile quarterback, so there isn't much point in even attempting to rush up the field with the ball. Overall, it just looked like the Fighting Irish defensive line got into Henne's head, and as a result he demonstrated some poor decision making.

I was also somewhat unimpressed with Steve Breaston's performance again today. He just didn't appear to be his explosive, game-breaking self. The end-around near the close of the first half was an impressive looking play, and if Breaston had been able to get around that last defender, he would have gone all the way. I was impressed with Breaston's apparent desire to make a big play, refusing to call for a fair catch, when it was obvious that there was a very good chance he would get hit immediately. In the first two games, Henne's has attempted to go deep with Breaston five times, and each time the ball has ended up just out of the reach of the receiver's hands. The one big catch that Breaston did make was just out of bounds on the sideline in the end zone. I really don't know what the explanation is for succession of missed passes. Has Breaston lost a step this season, is he injured, or is Henne simply overthrowing his target? The passes generally appear to be just a bit overthrown - several of them were thrown out of bounds in the end zone, and today's open field pass was just a bit too long for Breaston to catch up with. I really hope they can work out the timing issues this week, as Michigan's offense appeared quite ordinary this week.

So - did we learn anything this week? Last week, Michigan's offense did the job, but the defense looked suspect. This week, Michigan's defense did their job, but the offense failed. Today, we learned just how important Michael Hart is to the Michigan offense. No offense to Kevin Grady - I actually think Grady filled in admirably today, but he still has a few things to learn. I believe Grady has fumbled the ball three times in the first two games of the year. As Michigan fans, I guess we've just become a little spoiled with Hart, who fumbled the ball only once last season, and has carried the ball I think 283 times in a row without a fumble.

Does Michigan have what it takes to win the Big Ten this year? Do they still have an outside shot at a national title game? Last season, after the Notre Dame loss, Michigan reeled off eight straight wins, before consecutive losses to Ohio State and Texas. The good news is that the ball is still basically in Michigan's court in regards to the Big Ten title. If they run the table from here on in, Michigan can still take the Big Ten title, but without a matchup against Purdue, there is a chance that a 9-1 record might not be enough. Michigan does have what it takes, but it looks like Henne is human, and he does have a few things to learn. The man is only a sophomore, so I guess that is to be expected.

Michigan vs. Notre Dame - 1st Impressions

2005-09-10T12:53:00.001-04:00

It's 7-0 Notre Dame, with 34 seconds remaining in the first quarter. For the first two series, Notre Dame's offense looked dangerous, and it looked like Michigan could not contain them. At the other end, Michigan was not able to move the football.

Thankfully, Michigan's defense is starting to step up. The defensive line is starting to put some pressure on the quarterback, Brady Quinn, which resulted in several throws that are just a little bit off.

On the offensive side, Michigan has so far had trouble establishing themselves. Notre Dame has been able to pressure Henne on almost every play, with several blocked passes and a sack. Notre Dame relied heavily on a no-huddle offense early long, and to me, it appeared that they were attempting to establish early momentum. Weiss' offensive schemes are going to keep Michigan's defense on their toes all game long, but I think their first few sets of downs were pre-established, and that they won't be able to continue to surprise the Wolverines with the no-huddle offense.

For me, the best news has been that Michigan has been involving Breaston in several plays. If they continue to involve Breaston, he will easily put up 150 yards offense.

Wait -- I just saw the double-reverse to Breaston to end the first quarter -- beautiful play. They just announced the Hart may be injured, as rookie Kevin Grady has stepped in. With Ecker stepping in for the missing Tim Massaquoi, and Hart possibly injured, the Wolverines are going to have to rely heavily on Avant, Grady and Breaston.

In any case, this is shaping up to be a very entertaining football game. It looks like Notre Dame has the early edge, but if Michigan's defense can keep up the same intensity level, and pressure Quinn all game long, the Wolverines should be able to pull out the win.

Wolverines Pre-Game Report /Leafs Report

2005-09-10T11:44:00.000-04:00

There are two great matchups I'm looking forward to today: #20 Notre Dame at #3 Michigan, and #2 Texas at #4 Ohio State. Who do you think is going is going to win these two exciting matchups?

Notre Dame's offense is supposedly much improved, and with Michigan's suspect defense, the game isn't going to be a walkover for Michigan. There is simply too much at stake for Michigan this year -- they have so much talent that I don't think they're going to allow a legitimate nation title run be spoiled so early in the year. I guess if I had to pick, I'd say Michigan will win it 35-28.

I have no idea who will win the Ohio State/Texas game. Cedric Benson graduated, but Texas' new freshman running back, Jamaal Charles, ran for 135 yards in his first game, and Texas put up big numbers in a 60-3 win. I almost want Ohio State to win, which would give Michigan a better chance at a National Title shot if they can run the table, but I'm guessing that Texas will come out on top, 41-38.

---
Some quick thoughts on the Leafs:

How do you like the Leaf's chances this year, after signing Mariusz Czerkawski, and inviting Mike Kean to training camp? :) I think they're going to do alright this year - sure, the lost a lot of talent, but adding Lindros, Allison, O'Niel, Kavanaugh, and Czerkawski should make up for it. I hear that Staffan Kronwall and Alexander Steen are both playing great at the rookie tournament this week, and I hope both of them make the big club this year. There are four rookies with a legitimate shot at making the Leafs this year: Colaiacovo, Steen, Wellwood, and Kronwall. I would rather see Kronwall on the big club this year, than Colaiacovo, who seems a little bit overrated, and Steen on offense. I think Colaiacovo will have more growing pains and rookie mistakes than Kronwall, for this season at least. I think Wellwood is going to eventually play a decent roll in the NHL, but I don't think he'll ever be a good match for the Leafs while Quinn is coach (I liken him to Sullivan and MacCauley, who's careers both took off after they left the Leafs)

I think they should play three of the above four mentioned rookies on the club this year, but likely only two will make it, because the Leafs have filled up valuable roster spots with the likes of Belak, Kilger, Wilm, Domi, and Perrot. I like Domi, but the rest of those guys are just filler, and there is just more upside with Wellwood, Steen, Kronwall and Colaiacovo.

groupThink

Will the Real Toronto Maple Leafs Please Stand up?

A Delusional Fan Riding the Leafs Playoff Bandwagon

Life Imitates Art

Selanne's Ketchup Flows Once Again

Mark's Clip of the Day (05-19-2007)

Bowl Predictions

Big Ten will Dominate in BCS - SEC is Overated

Reggie Fish Destroys Michigan's National Title Hopes

BCS Update - It's Election Night all over Again

BCS Results Trickling In *CROSSING FINGERS, PRAYING, AND HOPING*

Why Michigan should be #2 (The Vanberbilt Addendum)

OthelloRank Strength of Schedule - Michigan's tougher than Florida

BCS Talking Points (AKA Why Michigan Deserves a rematch over the Gators)

Updated OthelloRank rankings

Gary Danielson is a Second Rate Announcer

Screw you, CBS - The BCS Mess - Michigan or Florida

The SEC is a joke

USC bows out; Go Razerbacks!

UCLA Takes the lead!

LETS GO UCLA BRUINS!!!

OthelloRank - A First Attempt at a Non-biased BCS Computer Ranking Algorithm

Cheering for the Enemy

Lobbying for "The Rematch"

Michigan is still #2

RIP, Bo Schembechler

The Game of the Century - Michigan Wolverines vs. Ohio State Buckeyes

2006 #2 Michigan vs. #1 Ohio State

Footnotes

Michigan got a first place vote! 62 more up for grabs :)

Will any legitimate #3 team remaining?

Michigan - Indiana Preview

The Sky is not falling!

Michigan Survives a close one

Manningham a go!

New USA Today/Coaches Poll is out

ESPN Countdown to the Game of the Century

Michigan - Northwestern Gameday Preview

Sundin's 500th

The Curse of #2 Continues

Michigan Wolveines will win big

Michigan Wolveines will win big

Breaston's Turn to Lead the Team

The Curse of the #2 Ranking

Call for a National Title 4 Team Playoff

Michigan now ranked #6 (AP)

Instant National Title Contenders

John Ferguson, Jr. makes a big splash on draft day

Further Musings of a Casual World Cup Fan

The World Cup from the eyes of a casual fan

The Ketchup is flowing

Will the Ducks Make it a Series?

Musings on the Nintendo Wii

Jon Stewart on NSA Wiretapping

Playoff Hockey

Leafs Win! Leafs Win!

Scoreboard Watching

Playing with the Numbers

Suglobov and Bell Start Tonight!

Men's Olympic Hockey Quarterfinal Preview

Men's Ice Hockey Olympic Quarterfinal Schedule

The Sleeping Giant Awakes

Men's Hockey Olympics Overanalysis

Canada Looks a Little Rusty - Finland looks Unstoppable

They're doing everything but putting one in the net

Great 3rd Period Coming Up

Finland brings it in the 1st

Finland takes a 4-2 lead

Slovakia wins 2-1; Finland and Czech Republic tied 2-2

An upset of Olympic proportions!

Is it a goal?

A break for the Swiss

Canada is in tough

Men's Olympic Hockey Roundup

Cheers and Jeers

Let the Game Begin :)

And you Wonder Why Hockey Never Seems to Take Off in the States

The Call that Completely Ruined the Outback Bowl

Leafs 4 - Refs 4

Quick Update - Al Franken at the Michigan Theatre - Hyde Street in Charcoal Pencil

BCS Results Trickling In CROSSING FINGERS, PRAYING, AND HOPING