Sunday, September 19, 2004

Voters aged 18-25 under-represented in political polls

An article at states that current National Political Polling practices are a sham. The reason:

Polls only count people who have land lines. An overwhelming majority of citizens under the age of 25 no longer have landlines, instead relying on cell phones. The result: Current polling practices are completely biased, since they significantly under-represent a key demographic, voters aged 18-25, in their results. The majority of young voters favor Kerry, who is under-represented in current polls.

The article concludes by stating that polls are a complete fraud and should not be used in any way. Eventually, a case is made for a switch to on-line polling, which cannot currently be used since that would again represent a skewed portion of the demographic.

For an interesting daily look at election predictions, see this site:

If you click on th "Previous Report" button, you can see a day-to-day breakdown of predictions. Below are the most recent results. It's crazy to see how much day-to-day fluctuation there is in daily polling results. Some constants: Kerry always takes California, New York, and Michigan. Bush always takes Texas, and the entire mid-section of the United States (Outside of New Mexico and Colorado) The West Coast, and the Northeast are generally blue, and the rest of the country is red.

Today: Bush 331 Kerry 207
Sept 18th: Bush 327 Kerry 211
Sept 17th: Bush 307 Kerry 211
Sept 16th: Bush 311 Kerry 223
Sept 15th: Bush 296 Kerry 238
Sept 14th: Bush 291 Kerry 238
Sept 13th: Kerry 269 Bush 233
Sept 12th: Kerry 273 Bush 233
Sept 11th: Kerry 273 Bush 233
Sept 10th: Bush 254 Kerry 252