Playing with the Numbers

The playoff Race:

6	TAMPA BAY	69	36	28		5	77	216	219	18-12-2	18-16-3	4-5-1
7	NEW JERSEY	67	34	25		8	76	187	193	21-10-3	13-15-5	4-4-2
8	MONTREAL	67	32	26		9	73	193	209	17-10-4	15-16-5	5-4-1
9	ATLANTA	68	33	29		6	72	225	226	19-13-4	14-16-2	7-3-0
10	TORONTO	67	31	30		6	68	205	224	20-12-2	11-18-4	4-5-1
11	FLORIDA	68	29	30		9	67	196	212	20-9-4	9-21-5	6-3-1
12	NY ISLANDERS	67	31	32		4	66	196	231	16-14-2	15-18-2	6-4-0

Playing with the Numbers


#6. New Jersey (67 Games Played - 34-25-8 - 76 Points)
15 Games Remaining
Maximum Points Available: 106 Points
Expected: 93 Points (42 - 31 - 9)

#7. Tampa Bay (69 Games Played - 36-28-5 - 77 Points)
13 Games Remaing
Maximum Points Available: 103 Points
Expected: 92 Points (43 - 33 - 6)

#8. Montreal (67 Games Played - 32-26-9- 76 Points)
15 Games Remaining
Maximum Points Available: 106 Points
Expected: 87 Points (39 - 32 - 11)

----
#9. Atlanta (68 Games Played - 33-29-6 - 72 Points)
14 Games Remaining
Maximum Points Available: 100 Points
Expected: 87 Points (40 - 35 - 7)

#10. Toronto (67 Games Played - 31-30-6 - 68 Points)
15 Games Remaining
Maximum Points Available: 98 Points
Expected: 83 Points (38 - 37 - 7)

As you can see, the playoff race is going to be tight. I'm going to exclude the New York Islanders and Florida Panthers for now, as I don't think either of those two teams has what it takes to make it into the post-season. At their current pace, Montreal and Atlanta are both on pace for 87 point seasons - this is the baseline for squeeking into the playoffs, but I doubt it will be enough. It will likely take 89-90 points to get in - especially when you consider the fact that Atlanta is starting to put things together.

Toronto has a maximum theoretical limit of 98 points remaining for the season. Each loss (or OTL) lowers this theoretical number. They cannot afford to dip below 90 points on the season, and with 15 games remaining, this means they must put together an impressive 12-3 or 11-4 run to get in. With 8 games on the road, and tough matchups against Carolina, the Devils, the Flyers, Montreal, the Sabres and Senators, the Leafs have a steep hill to climb.

In the end, the Leafs are still in control of their own destiny, but they need to play like they are the hungrier team for every remaining game this season. If they manage to finish with at least 90 points, it should be enough to qualify for the final playoff position, and a first round matchup against either tonight's opponent, the Carolina Hurricanes, or the Leaf's perennial playoff rivals, the Ottawa Senators. The slight possibility of another seven game Toronto/Ottawa playoff series is enough to keep me glued to the NHL over the next few weeks.