Thursday, November 11, 2004

Ohio Voter Fraud Suspicions Remain

On election night, I kept a close watch on the exit polls. I went to sleep feeling comfortable that Kerry would take Ohio, because the exit polls showed he had a 2% lead among males and a 6% lead among females in both Florida and in Ohio. I went to bed around 1:00 AM.

I awoke in the morning, around 7:00 AM, and was surprised to see that both the Florida exit polls and the Ohio exit polls had been "adjusted" to match the actual election values. I thought "That's weird"....would they really be polling people after 1:00 AM? I felt like something was up. It seemed like they had no journalistic integrity.

Well, yet another blogger has performed some statistical analysis. It seems like CNN actually subtracted the number of voter included in the Kerry column to make the numbers line up.
Check out the two screenshots:

12:21 AM

1:41 AM

The first poll included 1963 respondents. The second included 2020 respondents. Now check this out:

CNN screenshot #1:

12.21 am, 1963 respondents so far

Total vote: Male 47% of poll , Female 53% of poll

Let look at the Male Bush and Kerry Totals:
Bush 47% of Votes X 49% of male votes X 1963 Votes = 452 Votes

Kerry 47% of Votes X 51% of males votes X 1963 Votes = 471 Votes

Now look at CNN screenshot #2:

Total vote: Male 47% of poll , Female 53% of poll

Bush 47% of Votes X 52% of male votes X 2020 Votes = 494

VotesKerry 47% of Votes X 47% of males votes X 2020 Votes = 447


So, they polled an additional 57 People, of which 27 were guys. With the 27 new male votes, they added 42 votes to Bush, and SUBTRACTED24 votes from Kerry's column.

I knew something was up when I woke up that morning....I didn't think CNN would be stupid enough to try and pull something that was mathematically impossible.

Now, you might say "Exit Polls don't mean anything...they don't prove anything." That is true, but they can be used as supporting evidence. Anyways, to lend additional credence to these reports, I'd like to exhibit another study, conducted in New Zealand.

Traditionally, state Exit Polls have been a very good indicator of final voting results. Traditionally, exit polls have been accurate within 2%. After all, they are polling actual voters on election night. The first real break from this trend was the 2000 Florida election, where the exit polls showed Gore leading by 3%, but somehow resulted in a 537-vote decision for Bush. I guess throwing away over 200,000 ballots would have that effect.

Anyways, in the New Zealand study, they found that the safe states were all within the traditional 2% margin. The alarming fact was that in the 12 critical swing states (CO,FL,MI,MN,NE,NV,NH,NM,OH,PA,WI,IA), the average discrepancy was a 2.5% red shift, or a total movement of 5% from the exit poll predictions, which was nearly twice the average of the safe states.

In other news, Warren county election officials previously cited the fact that the "Department of Homeland Security" and the FBI had contacted them and told them to seal off the election to the media because they were in imminent danger of a terrorist attack. They stated that on a scale of 1 - 10, the terror level was a 10. It has now been confirmed that both the department of homeland security and the FBI have been contacted, and neither issued such a statement. Warren county included 93,000 voters, and went 77% for George W. Bush. If they want any credibility at all, they will manually recount this entire county, along with Cuyahoga county, in front of the media.