Playoff Hockey

"We have to climb over two (teams) to get to that spot," Leafs coach Pat Quinn said. "Montreal is looking to regain their spot in the next games. They are playoff games. We have to approach it that way."

This is it folks -- Puck drops in 10 minutes. Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Montreal Candiens. The play tonight, and again on Saturday night. The Leafs have 14 games left in their season, and need to pass two teams in order to make the playoffs.

If Toronto can sweep the Canadiens in this two game set, they will have sole possession of ninth place in the Eastern Conference.

New Jersey and Atlanta face off against each other tonight in another huge Eastern Conference matchup. Based on schedules and momentum, I believe the Leafs have a better chance of catching the New Jersey Devils than the Atlanta Thrashers, despite the fact that they are 6 points back in the standings.

New Jersey has 9 tough games left on their 14 game schedule, and have been struggling of late. At best, I expect the New Jersey Devils to go 7-7. As such, if the Leafs can manage a 10-3-1 record over the final stretch, they will overtake the Devils.

That might look like a tough task, but that is what the Leafs are going to need to do to make the playoffs. The alternative is to overtake the red hot Atlanta Thrashers, who are 7-3 in their past ten, and sit four points ahead, although the Leafs have a game in hand.

Current Standings:

6	TAMPA BAY	69	36	28		5	77	216	219	18-12-2	18-16-3	4-5-1
7	NEW JERSEY	68	34	26		8	76	188	195	21-10-3	13-16-5	4-4-2
8	ATLANTA	69	34	29		6	74	230	230	19-13-4	15-16-2	7-3-0
9	MONTREAL	68	32	27		9	73	194	212	17-10-4	15-17-5	4-5-1
10	TORONTO	68	32	30		6	70	208	226	21-12-2	11-18-4	5-4-1
11	FLORIDA	69	30	30		9	69	199	214	21-9-4	9-21-5	7-2-1
12	NY ISLANDERS	68	32	32		4	68	199	232	17-14-2	15-18-2	6-4-0

Leafs Win! Leafs Win!

The playoff hopes are still alive. The Leafs survived a big test against the Carolina Hurricanes 3-2, setting up a huge two-game set against the Montreal Canadians later this week. Thanks to a Montreal Canadians loss, and a New Jersey loss, the Eastern Conference playoff race tightened up somewhat. Boston held a 4-2 lead halfway through the 3rd on Atlanta, but couldn't hang on, losing 5-4 in a shootout, allowing Atlanta to jump into the 8th and final playoff spot.

The Leafs closed the gap tonight. They are starting to play well, sitting at 5-3 in the last eight games. There is very little room for error left in the season. If they can pull out the two wins against Montreal, they'll be right back in the mix.

The Leaf's best bet to keep winning, and hope one of New Jersey, Atlanta or Tampa Bay falters enough to let them slip in to the final playoff spot.

Atlanta is one of the hottest teams in the League right now, so the Leafs will do well to keep up with them. Atlanta has three games against Tampa Bay, so if Atlanta keeps winning, the Lightning will slip at least a little bit. Unfortunately, it looks like Tampa Bay has the easiest schedule remaining - 6 games against the Penguins, Capitals and Panthers

New Jersey looks like the most likely candidate to slip in the standings during the final weeks of the playoff race. The Leafs have one head-to-head matchup against the Devils, on Sunday. The Devils also have matchups against Ottawa, Atlanta, Buffalo, three against the Flyers, two against the Canadians, and, finally, one against the Rangers. Given that nine of their remaining fourteen matchups are going to be tough, New Jersey will be hard-pressed to play .500 hockey at best (7-7), which would leave them with 90 points.

To sum it up, the odds are stacked against the Leafs, but it looks like they're are starting to play their best hockey of the year when they need it the most. If New Jersey goes 7-7, and the Leafs go 10-3-1, the Leafs will squeek in by the thinnest of margins.

#6. Tampa Bay (69 Games Played - 36-28-5 - 77 Points)
13 Games Remaing
Maximum Points Available: 103 Points
Expected: 92 Points (43 - 33 - 6)

#7. New Jersey (68 Games Played - 34-26-8 - 76 Points)
14 Games Remaining
Maximum Points Available: 104 Points
Expected: 91 Points (41 - 32 - 9)

#7. Atlanta (69 Games Played - 34-29-6 - 74 Points)
13 Games Remaining
Maximum Points Available: 100 Points
Expected: 87 Points (40 - 35 - 7)
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#9. Montreal (68 Games Played - 32-27-9- 73 Points)
14 Games Remaining
Maximum Points Available: 104 Points
Expected: 85 Points (38 - 33 - 11)

#10. Toronto (68 Games Played - 32-30-6 - 70 Points)
14 Games Remaining
Maximum Points Available: 98 Points
Expected: 85 Points (39 - 36 - 7)

Scoreboard Watching

So far, so good. Here's to hoping Toronto, Boston, Philadelphia and the New York Islanders all manage to pull out regulation wins. Toronto needs all the help it can get in order to scramble back into a playoff spot.

Toronto is up 1-0 on Carolina at the end of the first period :)

1st Period
Toronto	7:04, Alexander Steen 16 (power play) (Jeff O'Neill, Bryan McCabe)

Boston is up 2-0 on Atlanta midway through the second period

1st Period
Boston	2:14, Patrice Bergeron 23 (Brad Boyes, Brad Stuart)
Boston	17:14, Marco Sturm 26 (power play) (Brad Boyes, Patrice Bergeron)
2nd Period
None

Philadelphia is up 2-0 on New Jersey, also midway through the second period

1st Period
Philadelphia	1:49, Simon Gagne 40 (Mike Knuble, Peter Forsberg)
2nd Period
Philadelphia	6:54, Peter Forsberg 18 (power play) (Mike Knuble, Frederick Meyer Iv)

Meanwhile, Montreal and the New York Islanders are tied 1-1

1st Period
NY Islanders	9:11, Sean Bergenheim 2 (Mike York, Denis Grebeshkov)
Montreal	11:34, Mark Streit 2 (power play) (Mike Ribeiro, Alexei Kovalev)
2nd Period
None

Playing with the Numbers

The playoff Race:

6	TAMPA BAY	69	36	28		5	77	216	219	18-12-2	18-16-3	4-5-1
7	NEW JERSEY	67	34	25		8	76	187	193	21-10-3	13-15-5	4-4-2
8	MONTREAL	67	32	26		9	73	193	209	17-10-4	15-16-5	5-4-1
9	ATLANTA	68	33	29		6	72	225	226	19-13-4	14-16-2	7-3-0
10	TORONTO	67	31	30		6	68	205	224	20-12-2	11-18-4	4-5-1
11	FLORIDA	68	29	30		9	67	196	212	20-9-4	9-21-5	6-3-1
12	NY ISLANDERS	67	31	32		4	66	196	231	16-14-2	15-18-2	6-4-0

Playing with the Numbers


#6. New Jersey (67 Games Played - 34-25-8 - 76 Points)
15 Games Remaining
Maximum Points Available: 106 Points
Expected: 93 Points (42 - 31 - 9)

#7. Tampa Bay (69 Games Played - 36-28-5 - 77 Points)
13 Games Remaing
Maximum Points Available: 103 Points
Expected: 92 Points (43 - 33 - 6)

#8. Montreal (67 Games Played - 32-26-9- 76 Points)
15 Games Remaining
Maximum Points Available: 106 Points
Expected: 87 Points (39 - 32 - 11)

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#9. Atlanta (68 Games Played - 33-29-6 - 72 Points)
14 Games Remaining
Maximum Points Available: 100 Points
Expected: 87 Points (40 - 35 - 7)

#10. Toronto (67 Games Played - 31-30-6 - 68 Points)
15 Games Remaining
Maximum Points Available: 98 Points
Expected: 83 Points (38 - 37 - 7)

As you can see, the playoff race is going to be tight. I'm going to exclude the New York Islanders and Florida Panthers for now, as I don't think either of those two teams has what it takes to make it into the post-season. At their current pace, Montreal and Atlanta are both on pace for 87 point seasons - this is the baseline for squeeking into the playoffs, but I doubt it will be enough. It will likely take 89-90 points to get in - especially when you consider the fact that Atlanta is starting to put things together.

Toronto has a maximum theoretical limit of 98 points remaining for the season. Each loss (or OTL) lowers this theoretical number. They cannot afford to dip below 90 points on the season, and with 15 games remaining, this means they must put together an impressive 12-3 or 11-4 run to get in. With 8 games on the road, and tough matchups against Carolina, the Devils, the Flyers, Montreal, the Sabres and Senators, the Leafs have a steep hill to climb.

In the end, the Leafs are still in control of their own destiny, but they need to play like they are the hungrier team for every remaining game this season. If they manage to finish with at least 90 points, it should be enough to qualify for the final playoff position, and a first round matchup against either tonight's opponent, the Carolina Hurricanes, or the Leaf's perennial playoff rivals, the Ottawa Senators. The slight possibility of another seven game Toronto/Ottawa playoff series is enough to keep me glued to the NHL over the next few weeks.

Suglobov and Bell Start Tonight!

It's do-or-die time for the Toronto Maple Leafs. Mid-way through the year, the Leafs were sitting comfortably in 5th place in the Eastern Confernce, 9 games above .500, destined for a playoff post. On January 7th, the Leafs were 24-15-3. Then, the rails came off the tracks. The Leafs lost 7 straight games, and managed to win only 5 games over a 22 game stretch, falling to below .500 for perhaps the first time since Pat Quinn became the coach back in '97-98.

In the past 7 games, Toronto is 4-3. They're playing better, and are receiving consistant goaltending from Tellqvist. With 15 games left, they are going to have to do better than that. Toronto is going to have to go 12-3, or at least 11-4, for a chance to slip into the final playoff spot.

This is perhaps the most important week of the season for the Toronto Maple Leafs. They have a tough opponent tonight, in the high-flying Carolina Hurricanes. Montreal, Atlanta, and Tampa Bay all picked up points last night. Tonight, Montreal, New Jersey, Atlanta, the New York Islanders all play, so the Leafs desperately need a win tonight to keep up the pace. The injection of youth into the lineup (Ondrus, Bell and Suglobov) is sure to energize a Leafs lineup that is playing hungry for the first time in recent memory.

On Thursday and Saturday, Toronto plays two road games in Montreal -- HUGE. If Toronto can win both of those games, and pull 4 points closer to the Montreal Canadians, they will be right back into the thick of the playoff race.

A quick look at the Eastern Conferance Playoff Race:

6. Tampa Bay 69 77 (13 Games Remaining)
7. New Jersey 67 76 (15 Games Remaining)
8. Montreal 67 73 (15 Games Remaining)
9. Atlanta 68 72 (14 Games Remaining)
10. Toronto 67 68 (15 Games Remaining)
11. Florida 68 67 (14 Games Remaining)
12. NY Islanders 67 66 (15 Games Remaining)