Sunday, December 03, 2006

BCS Update - It's Election Night all over Again

It feels like the night of the 2000 and 2004 elections. The race is so close, but I have the impending feeling of doom. I already have every reason in the world to hate the state of Florida after the election fiasco. Does poetic justice not account for anything?

MGoblog has already declared Florida the winner, after they took 71% of the 2nd place ballots in the coach's poll. After USC lost, I was almost sure that Michigan and Florida would split those 2nd place ballots up for grabs, but it looks like they went unanimously for Florida.

It's down to the computer polls and the Harris Interactive Polls. Florida is up .948 to .933, or .017. Last week, Michigan held a comfortable 0.0302 lead in the Harris Interactive poll, but it looks like the entire country was swayed by that mockery of a football game that was the SEC championship, and the blatant lobbying of coach "crybaby" Urban Meyer, and the staff of the CBS broadcasting team.

I'm still desperately hoping that Michigan can pick up an advantage in the computer polls, and that the Harris Interactive voters have some level of independent though process. What I know:

Sagarin has Michigan #2, Florida #3
Wolfe has Michigan #2, Florida #3
Billingsley - Michigan had a massive lead over Florida in Billingsley, and should hold on
Anderson-Hester - Michigan had a slight 0.004 lead last week, and might hold on
Massey -Already had Florida at #3, and Michigan at #4. Should finish #2 and #3, with USC falling
Colley - Already had Florida at #3 and Michigan #4. Should finishe #2 and #3, with USC falling

So - If Anderson-Hester goes to Florida, we have:
Michigan S2, W2, B2, A3, M3, C3
Florida S3, W3, B3, A2, M2, C2

The highest and lowest rankings are dropped off, so we finish with a virtual tie.

If Anderson-Hester goes to Michigan, we have:
Michigan S2, W2, B2, A2, M3, C3
Florida S3, W3, B3, A3, M2, C2

Michigan - 3 Second Place and 1 Third Place votes
Florida - 1 Second Place, and 3 Third Place votes

Overall, this would give Michigan a commanding .0300 lead in the computer ranking, and would completely wipe out the .017 lead given to Florida over the Coach's poll. Since Michigan had a comfortable 0.0302 lead over Florida in the Harris Interactive, they might have enough to hold on should this scenario pan out.