Sunday, October 29, 2006

New USA Today/Coaches Poll is out

Michigan has finally secure the #2 ranking in the coaches poll, after USC was humbled by unranked Oregon State. USC, after struggling for four consecutive weeks against unranked opponents, finally fell from the #2 spot, down to #9. Ohio State is the unanimous first place selection, receiving all 63 first place votes, for 1575 total points. Michigan is not quite the unanimous second place choice. If Michigan received all 63 second place votes, they would've finished with 1512 points. Instead, they have 1500, meaning that either 12 voters have West Virginia ahead of Michigan in their ballots, or some clown ranked Michigan at #14 (or some combination thereof)

On the one hand, I can recognize why West Virginia could possibly be ranked higher, since they've blown out every opponent they've place this season. On the other hand, Michigan intentionally strays away from blowing out their opposition, and has had a much more difficult schedule then West Virginia thus far. Using the current coach's poll, Michigan has defeated:

#11 Notre Dame (Road)
#17 Wisconsin
#26 Iowa
#33 Penn State (Road)

West Virginia has defeated:

#35 Maryland

This will start to chance next weekend, as the Mountaineers face undefeated #5 Louisville on the road. West Virginia still has #34 Pittsburgh (road) and #15 Rutgers later this season. If West Virginia can win out their schedule, they make a much stronger case for holding onto that #3 seeding, but for now, it is difficult to justify voters ranking the Mountaineers ahead of the Wolverines.

Also of note:
  • Clemson drops from #11, down to #19
  • Arkensas moves up two spots to #12, ahead of LSU
  • #20 Nebraska falls entirely out of the rankings, with a loss to Oklahoma State
  • Missouri drops two spots to #25, after a loss to Oklahoma
  • #25 Georgia falls out of the rankings, after a 21-14 loss to Florida

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Saturday, October 28, 2006

ESPN Countdown to the Game of the Century

The Game of the Century starts in 509+ hours. Three weeks to go, and the hype continues to grow. I saw a single ticket for $750, which is a bargain, considering the average price is $868. That's still about $700 more than I can afford :) The weather outside is brutal, so I'm almost kind of glad I didn't end up with that free ticket - 37 degrees 30-40 mile winds, rain, and a windchill of 29 degrees.

With the cold rain affecting passing accuracy and ability to catch the ball, Michigan should just line up Hart, Grady, Breaston, Minor, and Carlos Brown behind the line all game, and forget about playing a quarterback or wide receivers. How much fun would be to watch those five guys run runs, end-arounds, screens, and reverses all day long. Michigan could set the all-time collegiate rushing record - although I suppose that might be difficult after all eleven players on the defensive line.

Still no word on Arrington ten minutes before kickoff. I'm guessing he plays. Manningham should return next week, according to ESPN (Music to my ears)

Final prediction (Let's see if I get even one of these totals right)

Michigan 31 - Northwestern 6 (Touchdowns by Hart (x2), Breaston, Carlos Brown)

Hart plays the first half only - 168 yards on 24 carries (7 yards per carry, 2 touchdowns)

Breaston plays the full game - 9 receptions (new career high), 89 yards receiving, 59 punt return for a touchdown, 164 All Purpose Yards

Carlos Brown - 81 yards on 4 carries, 63 yard touchdown

Grady - 8 carries, 31 yards, 1 fumble

Henne - 14 for 18; 151 yards; first half only

Jason Forcier - 7 for 13; 91 yards, second half

Brandon Minor - 11 carries, 44 yards

Greg Matthews - 4 receptions (career high) 23 yards

Carson Butler - 4 receptions (career high) 31 yards

Michigan - 242 yards passing; 324 yards rushing: 566 yards total :)

Michigan defense - 43 yards rushing (64 yards to Tyrell Sutton, -31 yards on TFL, Woodley 3 sacks; Michigan Defense - 6 sacks total)

LOL - I doubt the game will be that fun to watch, but one can wish

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Michigan - Northwestern Gameday Preview

The weather did not look promising this morning, as it sounded like it was raining all night, but it's starting to clear up at least a little bit. The forecast was calling for rain, 30-40 mile an hour winds, 40 degrees with a windchill of 31-32 degrees. There is still a 40% chance of rain during the game, but it should be fairly light.

There is still no mention of a suspension to Adrian Arrington, so I'm going to assume that Carr is standing by his word and letting the legal system sort out the issue before proceeding. I still wouldn't be surprised if Arrington sees a one or two game suspension for drinking during the season.

The Wolverines will face this game without star wideout Mario Manningham, projected starter Antonio Bass, tightends Mike Massey and Tyler Ecker, and potentially, Adrian Arrington. The remaining receiving corps may end up being seniors WR Steve Breaston and WR Carl Tabb, and freshmen WR Greg Matthews and TE Carson Butler. Despite this fact, the Wolverines will be alright. With the inclement weather, Carr will be inclined to keep the ball on the ground anyways, and the 71st ranked Northwestern rushing defense (after facing a pretty weak schedule) will be powerless to stop the likes of Hart, Grady, Minor and Carlos Brown.

I expect the Wolverines to come out hard and try to gain a big lead early. I think the Wolverines will be hard-pressed to beat the 30 point spread. Once the team is up by 24 points, I expect the starting defense, and much of the starting offense to come out of the game, making the match a push from that point forward.

Hart for Heisman

Sort of rolls of the tongue doesn't it. The press is starting to pick up on this thread: Don't forget Michigan's Hart in Heisman race, Mike Lucas: Heisman could also be on the line when Michigan meets Ohio State, Is Hart Heisman Material?

At this point, it is still a relative longshot, as Troy Smith is the consensus favorite, but if the Wolverines pull out a victory in the Horseshoe, and Hart has a big game, in front of the potentially the largest national audience of all time, he could easily pull into the lead.

The knock against Hart is that he currently doesn't have Heisman-type numbers for a running back. His 4.82 yards per carry is nowhere near the league lead, and is outside the range of traditional Heisman numbers. Unfortunately for Hart, this is more of a product of the Michigan possession game as it is Hart's natural ability. Hart's 214 carries this season leads of all Division-I. His 4.82 yards per carry is still more than enough to get the first down, so Michigan relies on him to keep the ball in the offense's hands for so much of the game. As a result, Michigan leads the nation in time of possession. Hart is 7th in the nation with 129.0 yards per game, 1032 total yards rushing, and has eight touchdowns.

In the next three games, Hart has a chance to put up gaudy numbers and improve his chances for the Heisman against weak teams. Unfortunately for Hart, it's in the team's best interest to rest Hart as much as possible to avoid injury, which may limit his chance to put up those gaudy numbers.

What I'd like to see in Today's Game

Hart - Hart will likely have one half to put up big numbers. With Northwestern's weak defensive line, Hart should be able to bully his way through for over 6 yards per carry.

Hart's first half numbers:

24 carries, 168 yards, 7 YPC, 2 touchdowns

Breaston - Breaston has yet to reach the endzone this season, but he has had a productive season. With 9 touchdowns from Manningham, 8 touchdowns from Hart, 4 from Arrington, and 3 from Grady, the team hasn't really needed to rely on Breaston for scoring. Breaston primary role this season has been to pick up first downs on third and long, and provide a short option for Henne. Last week, Breaston provided a needed jumpstart to the Wolverine offense, with a huge 64 yard kickoff return right after Iowa tied it up at 3-3.

I'd love to see Breaston set career highs in receptions and receiving yards. Last week, Breaston tied a career high with 7 receptions, and could easily be counted on for more today. If Arrington is out, look for Breaston to have a huge game. There was grumbling about Breaston's inability to catch the ball early in the season, but in the past two games, he has been their most reliable receiver.

I'd love to see one more kickoff/punt return for a TD during Breaston's final 5 games of his collegiate career.

Brandon Minor - Freshman RB has not touched the ball since running for a 40-yard touchdown against Michigan State three weeks ago. Once Michigan opens up a big lead, expect to see plenty of Grady, Minor and Brown. I'd like to see what this kid does.

Carlos Brown - This kid can fly. I'd love to see Carlos take a few snaps, and break one to the outside.

Icing on the Cake - Last weekend, Ohio State pulled a trick out of the playbook, with a 38 pass from Ted Ginn, Jr. Ginn's career quarterback rating is now 374.6 (1/2 with a 38 yard touchdown) Michigan also has a WR quarterback option in Steve Breaston, who played quarterback in high school. Breaston has a career quarterback rating of 732.4 (1/1 with a 36 yard touchdown pass) How awesome would it be to see Michigan respond to OSU's WR pass for a touchdown with one of their own?

Defense - Michigan is on pace to set the modern-day collegiate record for fewest rushing yards per game given up per season. Tyrell Sutton is one of those shifty, elusive backs that has the potential to break one for a huge gain. Michigan has been a brick wall against the straight run this year, and I don't expect that to change today. The biggest weakness Michigan has shown is a vulnerability to the screen pass, and expect Northwestern to set up Sutton with several screens during the matchup today. The Wolverine defense has held their opposition to 1 touchdown in the past two games. I'd like to see Northwestern limited to fieldgoals today.

My Prediction - The spread says Michigan by 30.5. i expect the Wolverines to fall just short of that mark. Michigan 31 - Northwestern 6.

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Sunday, October 15, 2006

Sundin's 500th

Mats Sundin accomplished a rare feet during the Maple Leafs 5-4 OT victory over Calgary last night. Sundin scored a short-handed, hat trick, game-winning goal in overtime that happened to be his 500th goal of his career. The OT winner gave Sundin sole possession of the record for most career OT Game-winners, with 15. The Leafs improve to 3-1-2, good for 4th in the Western Conference, and tied for 4th overall in the league. The Leafs have registered at least a point in each of their last five games, after losing the season opener against Ottawa 4-1. Video Highlights of the game, including Sundin's short-handed, hatrick game-winner, can be found on TSN's audio/video page.

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The Curse of #2 Continues

  • Week #1 - #2 Notre Dame struggles to a 14-10 victory over unranked Georgia Tech (Falls to #3)
  • Week #2 - #2 Texas Longhorns disappoint, dropping a 24-7 loss against #1 Ohio State (Falls to #8)
  • Week #3 - #2 Notre Dame is humiliated at home by #11 Michigan 47-21 (Falls to #12)
  • Week #4 - #2 Auburn handily defeats unranked Buffalo 38-7
  • Week #5 - #2 Auburn struggles against unranked S Carolina, relying on a dropped pass in the end zone to prevent the game from going into overtime, with a final score of 24-17.
  • Week #6 - #2 Auburn falls to unranked Arkansas 27-10 (Falls to #11)
  • Week #7 - #2 Florida falls to #11 Auburn 27-17

In 4 of the first 7 weeks, the #2 ranked team has lost. The #2 team has also struggled to pull out a victory in two of the three remaining games, as #2 Notre Dame pulled out a 14-10 victory against unranked Georgia Tech and #2 Auburn relied on a dropped pass in the end zone to pull out a 24-17 victory over South Carolina

With #4 Michigan's big win over Penn State, #2 Florida's loss at the hands of #11 Auburn, and #3 USC's third straight game where they struggled, there is going to be another shakeup in the college rankings. The first BCS rankings come out this evening. Somehow, Fox won the gig to announce the BCS rankings on the NFL Postgame show tonight.

Three different ESPN analysts agreed that Michigan should now be the consensus #2 team in the country. That probably will not happen, as the media is in love with USC, but Michigan should be a solid #3. There are some rumors that overrated USC will take the #1 seed in the preliminary BCS poll, because the computers think that USC's schedule has been tougher than Ohio State, which is a joke, because Ohio State has played Texas and Iowa on the road, while USC's toughest opponents have been Nebraska and Arkansas. The lopsided win against then-unseeded Arkansas is what has the computers excited, because the Razerbacks later went on to knock off #2 Auburn.

With losses to #2 Florida and #19 Missouri, the number of undefeated teams in the country is starting to dwindle. The seven remaining undefeated teams are (Rankings are from last week):

  • #1 Ohio State 7-0
  • #3 USC 6-0
  • #4 Michigan 7-0
  • #5 West Virginia 6-0
  • #7 Louisville 6-0
  • #20 Boise State 6-0
  • #24 Rutgers 6-0
  • #5 West Virginia and #7 Louisville eventually play each other on 11/02
  • #7 Louisville plays #24 Rutgers on 11/09
  • #5 West Virginia plays #24 Rutgers on 12/02
  • and, finally, in what Sports Illustrated is calling the GAME OF THE MILLENNIUM #1 Ohio State plays #4 (soon to be #2) Michigan on 11/18.

At most, we will end up with 4 undefeated teams in the country, and Boise State doesn't count, because they don't play anybody, and have no chance of moving higher than about #10 even if they run the table. I believe USC will lose during the Oregon/Cal/Notre Dame stretch towards the end of the schedule. It appears that there will be two undefeated teams at the end of the year: The winner of Ohio State/Michigan vs. the winner of West Virginia/Louisville/Rutgers. Louisville and Rutgers are both a step down from West Virginia, so the national championship game should end up being Michigan/Ohio State vs. West Virginia.

There are a couple tools in the AP poll that continue to give their first place votes to #6 West Virginia. The first place vote breakdown is 63 first place votes to #1 Ohio State and 2 first place votes to #6 West Virginia. There are rumors that, even though West Virginia will be in the top 5 in the AP Poll this week, the BCS computers have them ranked as low as #26, due to a very mediocre strength of schedule component. It's crazy that computers ultimately decide who plays in the national title game at the end of the year.

My Top Ten

  • #1. Ohio State
  • #2. Michigan
  • #3. West Virginia
  • #4. Texas
  • #5. USC
  • #6. Louisville
  • #7. Auburn
  • #8. Tennessee
  • #9. Florida
  • #10. Cal
  • #11. Notre Dame

I refuse to give any respect to USC, because they almost lost to three straight unranked opponents in Washington, Washington State, and Arizona State. They look very mediocre, and Cal should handle them easily. I begrudgingly give the #3 ranking to West Virginia, but don't really feel they deserve based on the schedule they've played so far. The team has looked impressive, though. To me, Michigan and Ohio State are far and away the top two teams in the country.

"That's as good a team as there is in the country right now," said Penn State coach Joe Paterno, after losing 17-10 to Michigan, almost in awe. "They played better than we did, especially in their offensive line." Penn State has played both Ohio State and Michigan, so Paterno is essentially saying that Michigan is as good as Ohio State. The Michigan defensive line obliterated Penn State yesterday, holding them to negative rushing yardage, sacking the quarterback seven times, and knocking two of Penn States quarterbacks out of the game. The Michigan rushing defense is now giving up an average of 32 yards a game, and a laughable 1.37 yards per carry :) Defense wins championships.

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Saturday, October 14, 2006

Michigan Wolveines will win big

Tonight's game has me as nervous as I've felt all year. The student paper, The Michigan Daily, didn't make me feel any more comfortable by predicting a 20-17 win by Penn State.

Penn State is a better team than their 4-2 record indicates. Their two losses came against Notre Dame and Ohio State. They have the 15th best defense in the nation, allowing only 79.5 yards per game.

There is a revenge factor involved - Last season, Penn State came into Michigan with a 6-0 record, and walked off the field one second away from a holding on to their perfect record, after Manningham made that memorable catch.

The game is on the road, at night, in one of the loudest stadiums in the country.

Enough about the negativity. The lesson to take here is that Penn State is an opponent worthy of respect.

The two common opponents Michigan and Penn State have shared are Minnesota and Notre Dame. Michigan blew away Notre Dame, while Penn State was blown away by Notre Dame. Michigan easily handled Minnesota, while Penn State needed a very questionable pass interference call on 4th down in overtime against the Golden Gophers. order to eak out a victory.

Penn State has comparable team stats in several categories - Rush Defense, Rush Offense, Passing Offense, Passing Defense, Points Scored, etc, but in every case, Michigan is superior.

Penn State has a strong rushing defense, giving up 2.52 yards per carry, but Michigan has a superior offensive line, averaging 4.52 yards per carry. Michigan will rely on Mike Hart to move the ball. If Michigan can win the battle for yards on the line, it will make things a lot easier.

The key to this game will be the Michigan defense. Running back Tony Hart has put up big numbers so far this season, but he has not faced the number one rush defense in the country. The Michigan defensive line will hold serve, forcing Morelli to pass the ball. Henne is a far superior quarterback to Anthony Morelli. Morelli has thrown 6 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, with a 56% completion rate, compared to Henne at 13 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, and a 62% completion rate. Michigan's defensive line will hurry up Morelli all game long, and expect the secondary to eat his inaccurate passes for lunch. Look for 2-3 interceptions from Burgess, Hall and company to ultimately decide the game.

Breaston, Mundy and Henne are playing in their home state for the first time in his career. With Manningham out of the lineup, Breaston will step up in his leadership role and play his biggest game of the season. Look for several big returns to give the Wolverines good field position, and watch #15 move the chains all game long with short passing routes. Breaston has been somewhat inconsistent this year, but he always steps up in important games. Look for Breaston to pick up 200+ all purpose yards.

On paper, a Manningham-less Wolverine lineup looks like it might have some difficulty against Penn State on the road, but this game shouldn't even be close. Michigan wins the game with a superior quarterback, a superior defensive line, and a superior offensive line.

Final Score: Michigan 31 - Penn State 17

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Michigan Wolveines will win big

Tonight's game has me as nervous as I've felt all year. The student paper, The Michigan Daily, didn't make me feel any more comfortable by predicting a 20-17 win by Penn State.

Penn State is a better team than their 4-2 record indicates. Their two losses came against Notre Dame and Ohio State. They have the 15th best defense in the nation, allowing only 79.5 yards per game.

There is a revenge factor involved - Last season, Penn State came into Michigan with a 6-0 record, and walked off the field one second away from a holding on to their perfect record, after Manningham made that memorable catch.

The game is on the road, at night, in one of the loudest stadiums in the country.

Enough about the negativity. The lesson to take here is that Penn State is an opponent worthy of respect.

The two common opponents Michigan and Penn State have shared are Minnesota and Notre Dame. Michigan blew away Notre Dame, while Penn State was blown away by Notre Dame. Michigan easily handled Minnesota, while Penn State needed a very questionable pass interference call on 4th down in overtime against the Golden Gophers. order to eak out a victory.

Penn State has comparable team stats in several categories - Rush Defense, Rush Offense, Passing Offense, Passing Defense, Points Scored, etc, but in every case, Michigan is superior.

Penn State has a strong rushing defense, giving up 2.52 yards per carry, but Michigan has a superior offensive line, averaging 4.52 yards per carry. Michigan will rely on Mike Hart to move the ball. If Michigan can win the battle for yards on the line, it will make things a lot easier.

The key to this game will be the Michigan defense. Running back Tony Hart has put up big numbers so far this season, but he has not faced the number one rush defense in the country. The Michigan defensive line will hold serve, forcing Morelli to pass the ball. Henne is a far superior quarterback to Anthony Morelli. Morelli has thrown 6 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, with a 56% completion rate, compared to Henne at 13 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, and a 62% completion rate. Michigan's defensive line will hurry up Morelli all game long, and expect the secondary to eat his inaccurate passes for lunch. Look for 2-3 interceptions from Burgess, Hall and company to ultimately decide the game.

Breaston, Mundy and Henne are playing in their home state for the first time in his career. With Manningham out of the lineup, Breaston will step up in his leadership role and play his biggest game of the season. Look for several big returns to give the Wolverines good field position, and watch #15 move the chains all game long with short passing routes. Breaston has been somewhat inconsistent this year, but he always steps up in important games. Look for Breaston to pick up 200+ all purpose yards.

On paper, a Manningham-less Wolverine lineup looks like it might have some difficulty against Penn State on the road, but this game shouldn't even be close. Michigan wins the game with a superior quarterback, a superior defensive line, and a superior offensive line.

Final Score: Michigan 31 - Penn State 17

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Wednesday, October 11, 2006

Breaston's Turn to Lead the Team

I recently saw a copy of the Ann Arbor News on the newsstand with Steve Breaston on the cover story, entitled "Poetry in Motion". I didn't have any money on me at the time, so I couldn't buy it, and it was gone when I went to look for it later that day. I wish I could've purchased the issue, because Breaston is by far my favorite college football player. Here's a link to the online version.

So far this season, we haven't as much from Breaston as you might expect. Two seasons ago, Breaston worked under the shadow of Braylon Edwards, and last season under the shadow of Jason Avant. This was supposed to be the year of Steve Breaston. Sophomore receiving sensation Mario Manningham changed all of that rather quickly, jumping onto the national scene with a three touchdown performance before a national audience in the game versus Notre Dame. Before injuring his knee on a non-contact playing during the Michigan State game, Manningham caught 8 touchdown passes over the a four game stretch, taking over the national lead in touchdown receptions, with nine in six games. Aside from Manningham, fellow sophomore Adrian Arrington has also begun to make a name for himself with three touchdown catches in the past two games. Together, the emergence of Manningham as a deep threat and Arrington as a mid-range threat has allowed Breaston to focus on short-yardage routes. Breaston has become a machine at moving the chains. Short 2 and 3 yard routes become ten to five yard plays as Breaston makes breaking tackles look as easy as slicing butter with a hot knife.

I've sort of been waiting for Breaston to reach his true potential over the past 2+ seasons. His first huge performance was against Texas in the Rose Bowl, where he shattered O.J. Simpson's Rose Bowl record, with 315 All Purpose Yards. Michigan ultimately lost that game 38-37, when the Longhorns kicked the winning field goal as time expired, but Breaston's amazing performance left a lasting impression. Time after time during Breaston's first couple seasons with Michigan, he made plays that left your jaw on the floor. He is already the alltime leader in both kickoff returns and punt returns, and is only the second big ten player to register 1,000 career yards in kickoff returns, punt returns and receiving yards. He doesn't have a lot left to prove at the college level.

Yet, after witnessing everything that Breaston can offer, Michigan fans are left wanting more. It looks like now is the time for Michigan fans to discover what Breaston is truly capable. When asked for comment concerning the injury to Manningham, an almost giddy Lloyd Carr would only state that the team received great news and Manningham would miss at least one game. Citing sources close to the team, the Detroit Free Press reported that Manningham underwent arthroscopic surgery to repair a partially torn meniscus. Reports from ESPN conclude that Manningham will likely be gone for two to six weeks. Michigan has two huge games in the next two weekends before a relatively easy stretch going into the Ohio State matchup on November 18th. Two opponents stand in the way of an undefeated Wolverine team marching into Columbus for a chance to take the #1 ranking from OSU: Penn State and Iowa.

This upcoming evening matchup on the road at Penn State is the perfect opportunity for Breaston to step up and play the game of his life. Breaston is a Pennsylvania native, and this will be his first game in his home state during his four year college football career. Breaston states "It's a game I've been looking forward to. I'm excited about it - I'm not going to lie".

In order to manage the clock and maintain possession of the football, Michigan is going to rely on their running game. Look for Mike Hart to have a career day. In order for Hart to have room to operate though, the Michigan passing game must remain intact. The combination of a lethal short game with Mike Hart and a lethal long threat in Manningham has been giving the opposition fits all season long, and that type of balanced offensive attack must continue over the next two weeks in order for the Wolverines to be successful.

This game isn't going to be a cakewalk. Penn State isn't the same team that was one second away from a perfect season, but they are more than capable, and must be chomping at the bit in order avenge the last second loss to the Wolverines last season. The game is on the road, and at night. Vegas seems to agree with me that it will be a tough game, listing Michigan as a 6.5 point favorite.

Last season, it was Mario Manningham that provided the heroics against Penn State. A pass to Steve Breaston 3 yards outside of the endzone was dropped, leaving two seconds on the clock, and time for one last play. Henne connected with freshman Manningham, showing a flash of the brilliance displayed this season. The win over Penn State was a lone bright spot in an otherwise forgettable season for the Michigan Wolverines. This season, there will be no last second heroics from Mario Mannigham to salvage the game. This time, it's up to Steve Breaston.

Early last season, after the graduation of Braylon Edwards, Michigan started the year by trying to make Breaston the team's deep threat. Henne threw at least 4-5 long 50-60 yard passes to Breaston the end zone. Steve had no problem blowing by the defenders, and getting close to the ball, but he never really appeared comfortable making the catch. The plan was eventually abandoned. At the time, Breaston never quite appeared comfortable making the long, running over-the-shoulder catch.

The time has come to once again make Breaston the go-to guy for the next two games. For Michigan, the key will begetting the ball in Breaston's hands. He makes people stand up out of their seats almost every time he touches the ball. Last season, Michigan resorted to many trick plays to get the ball in Breaston's hands, including having him line up at quarterback for a rush, double-reverses, screen passes, and laterals with three receivers lined up on the same side for blocking.

There is no doubt that Breaston has the ability to make the big places, and change the complexion of a game. So far this season, Breaston has been effective, if somewhat unspectacular, but he has not yet reached the end zone. With all the hype surrounding Mario Manningham and Mike Hart, Breaston has averaged 103.5 All Purpose Yards per game, putting him in the upper echelon of Division I, at 67th in the nation. His 23 receptions put him in 15th in the big ten. Two weeks ago, against Wisconsin, Breaston had a career high 116 punt return yards on 9 touches. The Wolverines had excellent starting field position all night long, starting on average at their own 41 yard line.

In addition to Steve Breaston, the Michigan receiving corps will include Adrian Arrington, Carl Tabb, and freshman Greg Matthews. As the lone starting senior receiver, the responsibility will lie on Breaston's shoulders to help ensure that the Michigan offense puts points on the boards and controls the flow of the game. The biggest area where Breaston can make a difference is in the return game. Over his career, Breaston has 3 punt returns for a touchdown, and 1 kickoff return for a touchdown. In a single game against Texas, he returned 6 kickoffs for 221 yards. So far this season, Breaston has returned only 6 kickoffs all season long, for a total of 114 yards. A large part of that is that Michigan's defense has been so tough this season, that they really haven't had to face very many kickoffs. On top of that, opposing teams seem to do whatever they can to keep the ball out of his hands on the kickoff and punt returns. In addition, it appears that Breaston has been a little more conservative this season. In previous seasons, Breaston was fearless, refusing to call for the fair catch when there almost no chance he would avoid the initial tackle. Injuries have hampered him in the past, so I'm glad he is taking this approach, but he is so quick off that first move that I think he can stand to be a little more aggressive on fielding kickoffs. Breaston himself realizes that his return game isn't quite where he wants it to be yet "It's really been kicking me so far. In the game, I try to get into that rhythm (So far) I basically haven't"

Penn State's rush defense is ranked 15th in the nation, giving up only 79.5 yards per game, or 2.52 yards per carry. Michigan is going to try running the ball, but the yards will not come that easy. For comparison, the toughest rush defense they've faced so far has been Wisconsin, ranked 46th at 118.6 yards per game. Since their deep threat in Manningham is gone, Michigan will have a tougher time stretching out the opposing defense, allowing Penn State to close up on defense. Penn State's passing defense is much more average, giving up 205.8 yards per game, ranked 75th in the nation. The speed of Breaston will be a key factor in keeping the Penn State defense off-balance. Expect Breaston to have a big return game, pumped up by the chance to play in front of family and friends in his home state.

For much of the past two seasons, Breaston has been hampered by injuries. A sprained hand kept him from playing to the best of his abilities. Highlights from last season include the first half from the Indiana game last year, where Breaston picked up 201 all purpose yards and a touchdown in the first half alone, before Michigan brought out the second stringers. Breaston also had another big bowl game against Nebraska, where he registered 226 all purpose yards.

I've always wondered whether or not Breaston could become an effective NFL player. He has been compared to Anthony Carter, who had a prolific career in the NFL. Breaston is undersized, and his great running speed will be less effective at the NFL level. To his credit, Breaston is very elusive, excelling at losing would-be sure tackles, and has excellent bursting ability, allowing him to change direction and reverse the field at full speed. I took a look at a few NFL draft previews, and it appears that scouts see the same potential in Breaston that we as Wolverine fans have witnessed for years. Fox Sports has Breaston listed as a late first round pick, at number 27, with a chance to go up if he has a breakout season. So far, the breakout season hasn't happened, but he has been steady and effective.

I'd like to see Michigan make an effort to get the ball into Breaston's hands as often as possible over the next few weeks - A few screen passes, having him take a snap or two at quarterback, perhaps a double-reverse with Hart. Hopefully, Henne can come up with some passes that find Breaston on the move in the secondary, because once he gets into that open field with the ball, he has the ability to take it to the house. Breaston is one of the most dangerous open field players in the business, so if you get the ball into his hands, good things will happen.

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Monday, October 09, 2006

The Curse of the #2 Ranking

Curse of the #2 ranking:

Week #1 - #2 Notre Dame struggles to a 14-10 victory over unranked Georgia Tech (Falls to #3)

Week #2 - #2 Texas Longhorns disappoint, dropping a 24-7 loss against #1 Ohio State (Falls to #8)

Week #3 - #2 Notre Dame is humiliated at home by #11 Michigan 47-21 (Falls to #12)

Week #4 - #2 Auburn handily defeats unranked Buffalo 38-7

Week #5 - #2 Auburn struggles against unranked S Carolina, relying on a dropped pass in the end zone to prevent the game from going into overtime.

Week #6 - #2 Auburn falls to unranked Arkansas 27-10 (Falls to #11)


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In the first six weeks, the #2 team has lost three times, fallen out of the #2 spot 4 times, and struggled in five of the six games. The schedule dictates that the #2 ranked team will continue to struggle.

How this will all end up:

#2 Florida must face consecutive #11 Auburn on the road and #16 Georgia. There is a very good chance the Gators will simply be the next in line of #2 teams failing to live up to expectations.

Once #2 Florida drops out of contention, the heir to the throne will be #3 USC. USC is destined to lose in week nine (#18 Oregon), week ten (#10 California), or week eleven (#9 Notre Dame). That is, if USC can even hang around that long. USC was very lucky to escape from Washington State and Washington with an undefeated record intact, and they look very ordinary. I can't fully understand why this team is still ranked so high.

After USC drops, the heir to the throne will be #4 Michigan. Michigan will likely inherit the #2 spot in week #9, 10 or 11, during a tough three game stretch of #87 Northwestern, #104 Ball State and #79 Indiana (I had to resort to CBS Sportsline to pull these rankings)

All of the above sets up the granddaddy of all games on week #12 (12-0 #1 Ohio State vs. 12-0 #2 Michigan) This will be the third time in history that both teams were undefeated when facing each other. The first time was 1973, but I couldn't find a reference online to the second meeting, and will be the true national championship, as I've been contending all along. This will be the second time that a #1 vs. #2 team face off in the same season.

It will be up to the Wolverines to defend the #2 spot. After three weeks defending the spot against cannon fodder (re: Northwestern, Ball State, Indiana), Michigan will have no problem defending the spot a fourth time and becoming the first #2 team to actually move up in the rankings all season.

After the hard-fought Michigan/Ohio State matchup, the pollsters are still not convinced that West Virginia is a better team than the Ohio State Buckeyes, but reluctantly give untested West Virginia the undeserved #2 spot. The Mountaineers quite naturally fit into the role of the underachieving #2 team, becoming the sixth #2 ranked team to lose, leaving Michigan and Boise State as the two undefeated teams in the country.

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Sunday, October 08, 2006

Call for a National Title 4 Team Playoff

There are (Rankings are from 10/1/2006, and will change later today, due to the Auburn loss)

#1. Ohio State (6-0) Big Ten
#3. USC (5-0) Pac 10
#4. West Virginia
#5. Florida (6-0) SEC
#6. Michigan (6-0) Big Ten
#8. Louisville (5-0) Big East
...
#20. Boise State (6-0) WAC
#23. Missouri (6-0) Big Twelve
#24. Rutgers (5-0) Big East

From this list, we have 7 legitimate national title contenders, and a few that could crack the top ten with an undefeated season. My question is this: "How do you decide who gets to play in the national title game if there are several undefeated teams remaining at the end of the season?"

Theoretically, we could see the following teams remain undefeated:

#1. The winner of Michigan vs. Ohio State
#2. Florida
#3. USC
#4. The winner of Louisville vs. West Virginia

Theoretically, we could end up with 4 undefeated teams in contention for the national title, with only two invites. To me, this makes the calls for a four team national title playoff a great idea.

Realistically, I don't think it will play out like this. #1 Ohio State has a cakewalk schedule from now until the November 18th matchup versus the Wolverines. Michigan has two moderately tough challenges remaining, with a night road game against Penn State, and a home matchup versus #19 Iowa. Michigan has not been seriously challenged yet this season, and they should make it through these games without a serious threat. If things play out as they should, Michigan and Ohio State will square off as undefeated opponents for only the third time in history. The winner of this matchup should automatically qualify for the National Title.

Florida easily survived a tough matchup against #9 LSU, solidifying their top five ranking this week. It doesn't get any easier for the Gators, as they play on the road vs. (previously) #2 Auburn next weekend, followed by #10 Georgia. Florida closes out the season against in-state rival #17 Florida State. The Gators have an incredibly tough schedule ahead of them, but if they manage to win out, they will seriously need to be considered for the national title.

USC has struggled in consecutive weeks against unranked opponents Washington and Washington State, with both games going down to the wire. USC appears to be over-rated. If it were up to me, USC would fall to #5 in this week's polls, behind West Virginia, Florida and Michigan. With the way the Trojans have played the past two weeks, I have serious doubts about their ability to get through this three week stretch in November: #11 Oregon, #16 California, #12 Notre Dame. All three games are at home, but USC appears to be very ordinary, and should fall out of contention during this stretch.

Of the serious national title contenders, West Virginia and Louisville have the weakest schedules. One of these teams will fall in the head-to-head matchup in Louisville on 11/02/2006. I suppose Rutgers could do everyone a favor and play spoiler against one of these two teams, but every indication is that one of West Virginia and Louisville will remain undefeated.

It appears to me that there will be 3 undefeated teams at the end of the season

#1. Winner of Michigan/Ohio State
#2. Florida
#3. Winner of West Virginia/Louisville

How do you decide which team gets left out of the National Championship game? Based on strength of schedule alone, I feel that it is unfair to exclude either Michigan/Ohio State or Florida, so West Virginia/Louisville would be the odd man out. It bothers me that West Virginia is ahead of both Michigan and Florida in the polls right now though. Wins over Iowa and then #1 Ohio State should be enough to bump Michigan ahead of West Virginia in the final week of the polls, and if Florida can knock off LSU, Auburn, Georgia, and Florida State, it should be enough to move into the #2 spot. It all comes down to a subjective judgment call though.

If one of West Virginia, Florida or Michigan put together undefeated seasons, but do not get invited to the National Title game, it would be a shame. A four team playoff would ensure that any team that played well enough for national title consideration would get their shot. Sure, you would be forced to make a decision between who gets chosen for the #4 seed, and who gets left out at #5, but at least you wouldn't end up leaving an undefeated #3 team out of national title contention.

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